UK Commercial Property Update Investment expected to edge higher in 2022 Investment activity has bounced back sharply after the initial COVID-19 shock and is on track to hit a three-year high in 2021. But we expect more modest growth in 2022 as softer economic activity and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Nov.) Industry in China continued to rebound last month from disruptions caused by power shortages while the recovery in services activity was held back by renewed virus outbreaks. A new COVID outbreak in... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update End of affordability test opens door to larger mortgages While mortgage lending slowed in Q3 as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, an easing of deposit requirements supported first-time buyer demand. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s plan to... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: 2021 as good as it gets for returns The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks... 14th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US REITs may outperform ordinary US equities The recent resilience of US real estate investment trusts (REITs) seems to reflect both easing concerns about the Omicron variant and a net decline in long-dated Treasury yields. Although we expect... 13th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the squeeze on real incomes hit real house prices? Consumers will feel a squeeze on their finances next year as inflation and taxes rise. That will take some wind out of the housing market’s sails, but it will not cause a correction. Note: Central... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) Commercial real estate debt recorded its largest gain in November since the onset of the pandemic. And with investment volumes on track for a record-breaking year, we expect lending activity to remain... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns set for double digits in 2022 The major change to our forecasts this quarter is that we now see strong demand for assets persisting well into 2022 and pushing yields down further. That is true in all sectors, with retail and... 10th December 2021 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office construction expected to slow further Office space under construction declined for a third consecutive quarter according to the Winter London Crane Survey, despite an uptick in new starts. Given the challenges the office sector faces, we... 10th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update New variant unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant has heightened the near-term risks for both the economy and UK commercial property. The latest restrictions show that there is still considerable uncertainty, but our estimates... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will major coastal city rents continue to get cheaper? The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Omicron poses near-term downside risk to property recovery The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023... 9th December 2021 · 30 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) There was no sign of any let up in the house price boom in November as new buyer enquiries rose again. Another strong survey also suggests that the market could continue to run hot for some time... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity surges even as mortgage rates rise Housing market activity has surprised on the upside over the past month and home sales look set for a strong end to the year. Even as mortgage rates increased to an eight-month high, home purchase... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The Halifax house price index suggests that not only did the end of the stamp duty holiday fail to dent the market, but that house price growth has since accelerated to a post-financial crisis high. 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The construction PMI rose for a second-consecutive month in October, to its highest level since July. However, we expect continued labour and supply shortages to hamper output in the near term. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
