UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) As expected, the headline CIPS construction index retreated in November as falling demand outweighed the benefit of easing prices and an increase in the availability of contractors. As the recession... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for all housing tenures to drop back Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed further significant downgrades for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher interest rates have boosted yields and a looming recession cuts rental growth next... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations near turning point as property yields spike Despite a sharp rise in property yields, renewed increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q3. All markets were overvalued except for... 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower Bank Rate path won’t prevent repricing As we now think Bank Rate will peak at 4.50% next year as opposed to 5.00%, mortgage rates will be a bit lower in 2023. But ultimately, the surge in mortgage rates over the past year will leave the... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.) A deterioration in affordability helped the Case-Shiller house price index to fall for the third consecutive month in September. The FHFA reported a small rise in prices, but we think more falls are... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn starting to weigh on West Coast markets Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian prime office rents to fall next year The sharp fall in employment we expect next year will drag on Italian office rents. While prime rents should hold up better than the wider market as the shift to the best quality space continues, we... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) Falling capital values have not yet deterred commercial property investors, with net lending to property increasing for the second month in a row in October. Bargain hunters may have given lending a... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Rocketing mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in October. While quoted mortgage rates have peaked they are unlikely to fall much below 5% next year, keeping the cost of buying... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 25th November 2022 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
