US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) September’s decline in starts supports our view that last month’s increase was a one-off and starts will fall further in the coming months. We expect the rise in mortgage rates to near 7% to continue... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The surge in housing starts to a 10-month high in September casts doubt on our view that there is much worse still to come for residential investment, especially as the recent stabilisation of the... 18th October 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) CRE lending growth slowed significantly in September, with both multifamily and other commercial sectors seeing the smallest rise in outstanding debt for at least six months. We expect the rate of... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for Prague office rents The post-pandemic rebound in the Prague office market is likely to prove short-lived. With the Czech economy slowing and employment expected to contract, occupier demand will soften just as new office... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) The Q3 credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the impact of the market turmoil of recent weeks, with the deadline for responses falling a week before the “mini-budget”. Nonetheless, it shows rising... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) While optimists can still point to limited supply, a fifth consecutive drop in new buyer enquiries in the RICS survey in September has convinced a majority of surveyors that house prices are heading... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where are industrial rental prospects strongest? We think online demand will continue to be an important driver of relative rental prospects in European industrial markets as we move into the post-pandemic era. But the outlook for traditional demand... 12th October 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning are property fund outflows? In response to a surge in withdrawals as pension funds rushed to secure cash to meet margin calls, several property funds implemented restrictions to prevent the need for a fire-sale of assets. To... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The 0.1% monthly fall in the Halifax house price index in September echoed the message from Nationwide earlier this week that house prices have now stalled. Given the sharp rise in mortgage rates over... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
