Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank to hike first; look out for off-colour mink We now forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will provide a further fillip to the NOK, which we expect... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) Swedish inflation rose sharply, as expected, in January and is set rise above the Riksbank’s 2% target in Q2. In any case, policymakers have signalled that they will look through any temporary breach... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way Higher oil prices will provide a boost to energy inflation in most countries over the coming months, including in Switzerland and the Nordics. In Sweden and Norway, the energy component will be... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divisions to test compromises at the Riksbank While the Riksbank presented a united front at its meeting this week, we suspect that differences in opinion amongst Board members on how to proceed with the asset purchase programme will become more... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Asset purchases set to divide opinions at the Riksbank This morning’s announcement that the Riksbank left its policy settings unchanged will have come as a surprise to no one. Policymakers are in no rush to raise the repo rate from zero, but there are... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish resilience, Swiss reluctance The latest data show that the Swedish economy is proving more resilient to virus containment measures than we had feared, giving the Riksbank some breathing room ahead of next week’s meeting. Having... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to keep its powder dry for now The Riksbank is highly likely to leave its repo rate and other policy settings on hold next Wednesday (10th February), but we expect it to beef up its asset purchase programme again before long. 3rd February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) & Man. PMIs (Jan.) The strong set of January manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics indicates that industry continued to cushion the blow from virus restriction-driven declines in services activity at the... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy in for a tough few months This week's data support our view that the Swiss economic recovery has shifted into reverse this quarter. Meanwhile, next week’s data are likely to show that Sweden’s economy expanded relatively... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Jan.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in January was a welcome surprise and shows that the manufacturing sector remains in rude health. That said, retail is struggling, and with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slow vaccine rollout key risk to the outlook In a quiet week for data, the Norges Bank left its key policy rate at a record low of zero, where we suspect it will stay until at least 2023. Meanwhile, we think the extension of some virus measures... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rate cut more likely than not in Denmark Another week another set of data which add to the signs that Norway’s and Sweden’s economies ended Q4 on a decent note and outperformed even the best-performing major euro-zone economies in 2020... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies The latest data suggest that activity was more resilient in Q4 than we had previously feared, with GDP in Norway and Sweden likely to have grown relative to the previous quarter, for example. That... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Nov.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected fall in mainland Norwegian GDP in November shows that activity was reasonably resilient to tighter virus-related restrictions and was well placed coming into 2021. While... 12th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly In store for a bumpy start to 2021 The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read