Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start to shrink its balance sheet next year After last week’s hawkish shift by the Fed, and the erasure of any doubt about the start of hikes by the Norges Bank, the Riksbank may also pencil a rate hike into its projections next Thursday (1st... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fractious politics don’t change Swedish macro picture The passing of this morning’s “no confidence” vote in Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has plunged Sweden back into a period of political purgatory. While the political outlook is unclear, the... 21st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the Norges Bank’s looming hikes into context A rate hike by the Norges Bank in September would make it the first G10 central bank to start to raise interest rates after the pandemic, by a comfortable margin. As a result, the NOK is likely to... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May) Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) The energy-driven increase in Swedish inflation in April is likely to be temporary and will not trouble the Riksbank (even as bicycle prices keep on climbing). That said, house price inflation is... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Apr.) & Sweden Activity Data (Mar.) April marked the end of the recent bout of deflation in Switzerland, and the headline rate is likely to climb higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, further confirmation that the Swedish economy is... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q1) & ETI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish GDP in Q1 means that the economy has already largely regained its pre-virus peak. Meanwhile, the jump in the ETI in April suggests that the economy is... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Economic optimism won’t translate into policy action The decision by the Riksbank to leave the repo rate and its other policy settings unchanged today will have come as a surprise to no one. While policymakers are increasingly optimistic about the near... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank happy to bide its time next week The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its repo rate on hold next Tuesday (27th April), and will stick to the plan to spend the entire SEK 700 billion asset purchase envelope by the end of the year... 20th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Still running ahead of the pack As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its... 16th April 2021 · 13 mins read
