Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Region: G10 Use setting G10 Use setting Monetary Policy
The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations highlighted the Bank’s concern that inflation could become stuck above the 2% target. Although headline inflation faces a bumpy downward path over the coming months, we think a faster easing in core inflation …
28th July 2023
GDP data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we expected in Q2. Output rose in France and Spain and stagnated in Germany . Together, the national data point to euro-zone GDP rising by 0.4% in Q2 rather than falling …
One consequence of higher interest rates is an increase in the losses that the Bank of England will make via the bonds it bought during its quantitative easing (QE) programme. This week, the Bank published an estimate that it could make a huge £150bn …
The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise above the 0.5% ceiling – which it says it is retaining – to a new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0%. With signs mounting of a virtuous cycle between inflation and wages, the chances of …
Real household incomes falling at rapid pace Data released last week underline that Japanese households are struggling to cope with rising living costs. While labour income rose at a robust pace, a slump in government transfer payments resulted in a 1.6% …
The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise to 1.0% instead of the current ceiling of 0.5%. We still think that a slowdown in inflation will convince the Bank to keep its short-term policy rate unchanged over the coming …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Retail sales soften anew The sharp decline in retail sales in June suggests that sales volumes fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. With the RBA sounding increasingly …
25bps hike and peak in sight Reverting to a 25bps hike rather than 50bps Rate hikes may come to a halt a bit sooner than most analysts and investors expect After a lengthy pause, rates to fall further than investors expect in late 2024 and in 2025 We’ll …
27th July 2023
As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one final hike later this year, futures markets are mostly …
26th July 2023
Policy rate now at peak, as disinflation will persuade Fed to stand pat in September As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are …
Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the Bank of Japan’s assessment that above-target inflation …
Economic activity slowing and inflation weakening faster than anticipated However, labour market still very tight and services inflation still accelerating Bank to hike to 4.35% next week, but September rate hike is a close call With inflation …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBA will deliver at least one more rate hike The faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation in Q2 may convince the RBA that it has done enough to rein in price pressures. …
Our forecast that in late 2024 and 2025 the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than investors expect suggests that UK gilt yields will fall and close the current gap with US yields. Admittedly, there’s still a risk that inflation in the UK …
25th July 2023
Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB. And the release of the BoE’s new Monetary Policy Report will provide some clues to just how …
Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will contract later this year. Even if recession is avoided, a …
24th July 2023
The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for longer’ rhetoric from officials, a more marked decline …
21st July 2023
Despite the fall in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June (see here ), the UK is still lumbered with an inflation rate that is 1.4 percentage points (ppts) higher than in the euro-zone. And at 4.8ppt, the gap between UK and US CPI inflation …
The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for a long time by past standards, but we think it could remain so until next year even if there’s a recession in the interim. At the start of this month, it briefly looked as though the beginning of the end of …
New Zealand inflation looks sticky CPI data published on Wednesday revealed that New Zealand’s consumer prices rose by 1.1% q/q in Q2, only slightly below the 1.2% quarterly rise in Q1. Nonetheless, favourable base effects meant that annual inflation fell …
Bank will revise up 2023 inflation forecast Early signs that virtuous cycle between wages and prices has finally arrived However, widening of tolerance band would risk renewed bond market sell-off At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise …
25bp rate hike next week likely to be the last, with rates peaking at 5.25%-5.50% Run of better inflation data to convince Fed to scrap plans for further hikes Falling inflation and weaker economy will see rates cut to 3.25%-3.50% by end-24 Fed officials …
19th July 2023
We still think the economy is more likely than not to fall into a mild recession later this year, as higher interest rates remain a drag and credit conditions continue to tighten. With the labour market proving resilient and core inflation still much too …
Despite the softer tone of the CPI inflation data for June released earlier today, we have raised our forecast for the peak in Bank Rate. Rather than rise from 5.00% currently to a peak of 5.25%, we now think Bank Rate will peak at 5.50%. That’s a bit …
Rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank at their July meetings look like done deals – it’s the messaging accompanying those decisions that may prove key to what the banks decide to do in September and beyond. Another increase also …
Provisional data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest that consumer spending slumped in Q2, as households sharply pared back discretionary expenditure. Faced with falling real incomes and depleted savings buffers, we think households will only …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Headline inflation moderates, but underlying inflation remains elevated Although price pressures are dissipating, they could prove stickier on the way down than we anticipate. As …
18th July 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19 th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing. Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to …
Swiss inflation has fallen sharply this year to below 2% and we expect it to stay there for the foreseeable future. In contrast to the SNB’s view, we think second-round effects on wages will be quite limited. And as a result, we forecast the SNB to start …
RBA softens tone, but further rate hikes remain likely The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that its decision to hit pause was far from a foregone conclusion. Indeed, the Board did consider the option of a 25bp hike alongside the option of leaving …
The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation forecasts putting them above our own, we think the hike this …
14th July 2023
While the resilience in economic activity looks to have continued in May, the latest surveys point to GDP growth slowing in June. And in China, the post-reopening rebound appears to have already fizzled out. Meanwhile, the significant tightening in …
As we had anticipated following the publication of the recent review into the institutional framework of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Governor Lowe’s term will end in September. The government announced today that Deputy Governor Bullock will become the …
Shunto may be more influential than we thought Regular wage growth hit 1.8% y/y in May, the biggest rise in almost thirty years. It’s still too early to tell but the May data might mark the start of the elusive virtuous cycle between rising wages and …
The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators implying that inflation expectations are normalising, we …
12th July 2023
Hike to 5.0% likely to be the last The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation declining and the survey indicators implying that inflation …
The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave rates on hold at 5.50% came as a surprise to no one. Indeed, the Committee noted that monetary policy in New Zealand had turned restrictive far sooner than in many other economies. Although the Bank …
RBNZ leaves rates unchanged The RBNZ’s decision to leave its official cash rate on hold at 5.50% was widely expected. In fact, all 25 analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves, had anticipated the pause. The minutes of the July meeting reinforce our …
Overview – We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually be cut more quickly than markets are pricing …
11th July 2023
Underlying inflation is set to fall through the coming quarters as the price shock from the war in Ukraine and the yen selloff last year dissipates. What’s more, the economy is set to enter a mild recession in the second half of the year, dragged down by …
The UK CPI report for June will provide fresh evidence of whether the economy has a persistent inflation problem – and whether the Bank of England will need to do more in response. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory and …
10th July 2023
We expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.85% by November, while the RBNZ's tightening cycle is likely already over with its cash rate now at 5.50%. With house prices now 18% below their January 2022 peak, we think New Zealand's housing downturn has run its …
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may be easing, wage growth remains too high. Most …
7th July 2023
Wage growth to climb higher in Australia The big news out of Australia this week was the RBA’s decision to skip a rate hike at its meeting on Tuesday. However, the decision to stay put was largely motivated by a desire to reassess the outlook with a new …
The acceleration in core CPI inflation in May combined with the reacceleration in wage growth in April shows that domestic inflationary pressures are still strengthening and interest rates will need to rise further. Admittedly, higher interest rates were …
6th July 2023
Economy and housing market enjoying renewed momentum Core inflation pressures easing but still too strong for comfort Loosening labour market means Bank unlikely to raise rates above 5.0% Note: We’ll be discussing the Canadian economic and policy outlook …
5th July 2023
Fed largely united in favour of temporary pause The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June FOMC meeting suggest that participants were largely of the same mind as far as the decision to temporarily pause the hiking cycle was concerned. Just as “almost all” …
