Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Limited need for large fiscal giveaways As it is an election year, the Finance Ministry will deliver an “interim” Budget on Thursday 1 st February, in place of the annual Union Budget. Interim budgets give an update of the current fiscal year and outline …
26th January 2024
Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the challenge of achieving macroeconomic stability is …
25th January 2024
Is Egypt setting the stage for ‘Super Thursday’? IMF officials have been in Egypt over the past week to discuss a new financing package and, while no details have filtered through, momentum is building fast and there’s a chance that all will be revealed …
SARB holds again, replaying inflation risk concerns The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed, …
Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened elsewhere in the emerging world in recent months, although …
Hiking cycle at an end, rates to stay high The 250bp interest rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) today, to 45.00%, marks an end to its tightening cycle. Encouragingly, the communications were relatively hawkish and suggest that policymakers …
Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a success too. The short point is that we think sentiment now …
24th January 2024
Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in discussions, but private bondholders are also playing hardball. …
Tunisia’s government faces a large debt repayment next month and, while it should be able to make that, there is still a lot of debt coming due in the next twelve months. President Saied’s unwillingness to sign up to an IMF deal means that a sovereign …
Inflation jumps, February cut in balance The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the chances of …
The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a significant change in economic sentiment. Neither …
Sharp inflation fall not enough to encourage early rate cuts South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow. November’s …
EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies where growth was surprisingly strong last year will slow by …
23rd January 2024
Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to below $65pb, and remain there before the authorities need …
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further recovery is likely in the near-term. But we think momentum …
India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in large part because of the detrimental impact it could have …
Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In fact, repeated efforts to shore up short-run growth …
22nd January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Recovery continues in Q4 Poland’s retail sales data for December suggest that consumer spending weakened at the end of last year, although the industrial sector held up better …
Russian oil imports drop as G7 cracks the whip We learnt this week that the goods trade deficit narrowed from US$20.6bn in November to US$19.8bn in December, the smallest monthly trade deficit since July. (See Chart 1.) Both imports and exports rose last …
19th January 2024
GDP breakdown points to rebound in tech & retail Officially, GDP growth slowed last quarter in q/q terms. But as we noted in our response to the data, this does not seem consistent with wider evidence of a slight improvement in momentum recently. On …
The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this week compared with last year. But ongoing labour …
18th January 2024
Overview – The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in advanced economies slightly this year. But we …
Egypt needs enhanced IMF deal urgently Egypt’s foreign currency woes remained in the spotlight this week, highlighting the importance of getting an enhanced IMF deal over the line in order to avoid a disorderly balance of payments crisis. This week …
Capital inflows into EM bond and equity markets have eased off a little recently, but they are still running around their highest level in over three years. And taken together with the narrowing of current account deficits over the last year, it suggests …
November’s activity data for South Africa show that while economic headwinds are easing, growth is still very soft. Still, less electricity outages and restrictive fiscal policy should allow for a modest pick-up in growth over this year. Data released …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication . Recovery still shaky China’s economy lost momentum in Q4 according to the official GDP figures. But we suspect that’s because they failed to acknowledge the full …
17th January 2024
The incidence of sovereign debt distress has fallen sharply across the emerging world in the last few months, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility of default in a handful of EMs. Tunisia looks most likely to do so, followed by Argentina and Ecuador, …
16th January 2024
We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The key point is that GREs appear to have weathered the large …
One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced IMF deal and other external financing, mean that it …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation now close to 30% y/y, CBN needs to act soon Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. …
15th January 2024
Inflation ends 2023 on a softer note Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect that inflation will continue to ease at the start of this …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . The PBOC fails to deliver Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was …
Fall in inflation won’t be sustained The small fall in Russian inflation to 7.4% y/y in December is likely to be temporary, and we still think that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We expect a 100bp rate hike (to 17.00%) next month. …
12th January 2024
South Africa climate efforts at risk from power plan South Africa’s draft energy plan presented bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) set out …
Inflation data surprise to the downside The softer-than-expected December inflation data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggest that further interest rate cuts will be delivered across the region over the coming months and, in …
NBR won’t cut rates as far as most expect in 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut as far …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Elevated headline inflation suggests no imminent rate cuts The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank …
Growth pick-up to extend into Q1, fade by year-end The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to show that China’s economy ended 2023 on a more positive note. Our GDP tracker points to y/y growth of 5.5%, up from 4.9% in Q3. That partly reflects a weaker …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Broad credit growth hits 7-month high, but bank lending still weak The rebound in broad credit growth remained on track thanks to a step up in government borrowing. But growth …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes still due for a pullback China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since April. And while export volumes only ticked up slightly, they remain near a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Deflation set to ease gradually Smaller y/y declines in food and energy prices meant that both CPI and PPI deflation eased last month, a trend that we think will …
Air pollution a modest headwind Air pollution in India has been a growing problem for several decades – on some measures air pollution has almost doubled from the levels at the start of the century. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: India Annual Average PM 2.5 …
Egypt’s policy shift and IMF deal edging closer Meetings this week between Egypt, the IMF, and the US took place following the release of a draft economic plan, which points to the expansion of the current IMF deal and a renewed shift towards economic …
11th January 2024
Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core inflation will remain above the central bank’s target until …
10th January 2024
Note: W e held a client briefing straight after the election weekend to discuss what the vote means for Taiwan and the global economy. View the on-demand recording here . China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s …
Inflation slowing, but will remain above target until mid-2025 Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is …
Aggregate EM GDP growth is set to slow in 2024, but as important as the overall story is understanding the different cycles that are playing out at a country level. We think some countries that performed surprisingly well last year (notably Mexico and …
9th January 2024
NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we continue to think that the scope for monetary loosening ahead is relatively limited. While the consensus view in recent …
Sharper-than-expected rise in inflation leaves February rate cut in balance The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning …
