Turkey’s central bank shrugged off a currency crisis, rising inflation as well as the recent hawkish turn from the Fed and remained obedient to President Erdogan by cutting its one-week repo rate by another 100bp, to 14.00%, today. The accompanying …
16th December 2021
Our estimates show a fall in the risk premium in the oil price since the emergence of the Omicron variant, as concerns over demand resurfaced. But the risk premium is still large, which adds weight to our view that oil prices will fall next year as the …
While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March. We are sticking to our hawkish forecast that rates will …
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125% and despite rising inflation, surging property prices and the strong economy, we don’t think policymakers will be in any rush to tighten policy. Today’s decision was unanimous and …
The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact on …
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and despite the prospect of the US Fed raising interest rates soon, we don’t think BI will be in any rush to tighten. The decision to leave rates unchanged came as no surprise …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, and with inflation set to ease further over the coming months we think the central bank will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future. Today’s decision …
The government unveiled only modest increases in spending in today’s fiscal update. And while the unemployment rate has now reached levels where the Treasurer has pledged to start repairing the public finances, the government’s priority remains to support …
The Fed delivered an even more hawkish shift at the December meeting than we had anticipated, with the pace of tapering doubled and officials now forecasting three rate hikes next year. Reflecting that new tone, we now expect the Fed to raise rates three …
15th December 2021
Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming weeks. Europe was labelled the epicentre of the pandemic …
Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report , suggest that its tightening cycle will be more aggressive than we’d previously thought. We now …
The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the US outperform the UK and euro-zone by 5%-pts and 3%-pts …
Investment activity has bounced back sharply after the initial COVID-19 shock and is on track to hit a three-year high in 2021. But we expect more modest growth in 2022 as softer economic activity and structural factors in some sectors weigh on …
The government’s fall fiscal update suggests the public finances will be in a better position in the coming years than we had assumed, but this is largely because the government chose not to deliver on any of its recent election pledges. If the government …
14th December 2021
In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we think that emerging market (EM) equities will make only …
The decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to raise its base rate by 30bp, to 2.40%, at today’s meeting is largely symbolic. The key point is that the central bank struck a clear hawkish tone and will continue to push up interbank interest rates …
Reports that the surge in Omicron COVID-19 cases is causing some people to stay away from work, schools, pubs and restaurants increases the downside risks to our December and January GDP forecasts. But the big step down would happen if there were another …
While mortgage lending slowed in Q3 as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, an easing of deposit requirements supported first-time buyer demand. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s plan to withdraw its affordability stress test will allow banks to …
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by a further 100bp, which came as little surprise. What was unexpected, however, was the sudden shift in tone in the statement. Despite the worsening inflation outlook and the widening external …
The Bank of Canada’s updated policy framework will not have a material effect on policy over the next couple of years, but it does support our forecast that inflation will be slightly higher on average over the rest of this decade than it was in the …
13th December 2021
The recent resilience of US real estate investment trusts (REITs) seems to reflect both easing concerns about the Omicron variant and a net decline in long-dated Treasury yields. Although we expect the latter to creep higher over the next couple of years, …
Consumers will feel a squeeze on their finances next year as inflation and taxes rise. That will take some wind out of the housing market’s sails, but it will not cause a correction. A spike in inflation and a hike in National Insurance contributions in …
South Africa’s experience with Omicron so far offers tentative hope to other economies since it hasn’t pushed up the incidence of very severe illness in the same way that the Delta wave did. The economic impact will depend on how policymakers respond, …
Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart, making it more difficult to pass necessary economic reforms …
The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects are only deteriorating, suggesting Latin America will …
Even though headline US CPI inflation may now have peaked, we still think long-term inflation compensation could rise a little over the next couple of years. Data released today showed that US headline CPI inflation hit in November its highest level since …
10th December 2021
Office space under construction declined for a third consecutive quarter according to the Winter London Crane Survey, despite an uptick in new starts. Given the challenges the office sector faces, we believe that activity is likely to decrease even …
US households and nonprofit organizations (NPO) lost their appetite for equities last quarter. If they don’t get it back, it may not augur well for the stock market. The Fed’s latest Financial Accounts of the United States reveal that the value of US …
We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. The US Treasury yield curve has flattened sharply over the …
9th December 2021
We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the clampdown on excess steel production continues, both …
Three recent developments – the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Fed’s signal that it may further accelerate the pace of policy normalisation, and China’s move towards policy easing – have combined to create crosswinds for currency markets. While we …
Timely activity figures suggest that Nigeria’s economy lost momentum in early Q4 as oil sector woes continued and the non-oil economy’s recovery slowed. Headwinds have only built since. Nigeria’s GDP growth softened from 5.0% y/y in Q2 to 4.0% y/y in Q3. …
The Omicron variant has heightened the near-term risks for both the economy and UK commercial property. The latest restrictions show that there is still considerable uncertainty, but our estimates suggest that the downside is limited and the sector should …
The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities reopening, we doubt they will continue to get cheaper. …
Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant policy stimulus would probably only be needed if things …
Brazil’s central bank gave a clear steer that, even though the economy entered recession in Q3 and shows little sign of growth in Q4, it will follow the 150bp hike in the Selic rate yesterday (to 9.25%) with further aggressive tightening. We now think …
The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian government are keen to explore the benefits of a retail central bank digital currency. But with pilot projects yet to start, we doubt that an eAud will be launched before the middle of this decade. The …
Coronavirus fears have resurged, with some restrictions being reimposed in Europe. So far, the hit to activity seems fairly modest, but it will be enough to see economic recoveries in the euro-zone and parts of emerging Europe slow in Q4. And restrictions …
8th December 2021
The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. (See Chart 1.) That underlines the tightness of labour market conditions …
Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are still to the downside. Although there is still a lot of …
The National Bank of Poland’s decision to slow the pace of its tightening cycle with a 50bp interest rate hike (to 1.75%) seems a bit inconsistent with its more hawkish tone on inflation in the accompanying press statement. Even so, we think the backdrop …
The Bank of Canada’s unchanged policy rate guidance implies it could wait until the third quarter before raising rates but, given wage growth is now picking up sharply, we expect it to pull the trigger in April. As the Bank updated its forward guidance …
OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf – plausibly by around 0.5%-pts next year. At the same …
The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the underlying strength of domestic demand and an increase in net …
The MPC voted to keep policy rates on hold today, opting only to introduce further small measures to withdraw liquidity from the banking sector. With the RBI still focusing primarily on supporting the fragile economic recovery, we continue to think that …
Banking sectors in Emerging Europe have come through the pandemic with few scars and vulnerabilities generally remain low, but we identify three potential areas of concern, including deposit dollarisation in Turkey, frothy lending growth in Russia as well …
7th December 2021
This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was after the 2018 crisis. However, policymakers look less …
The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and that other indicators point to a further softening in …
November’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that non-oil sectors in the Gulf continued their recent strong trend, but the emergence of the Omicron variant – and threat of tighter restrictions – presents a clear downside risk to our above-consensus 2022 …
Inflationary pressures in the Philippines are easing sharply. This will allow the central bank to keep interest rates low to support the economic recovery. Inflation in the Philippines has been something of a regional outlier, having remained stubbornly …
