Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine have raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions in place and the macroeconomic impact lifting them could have. While US sanctions relief …
20th March 2025
An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale sanctions relief for Russia would be the most positive for …
27th February 2025
Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger risk is that is worsens external imbalances which …
24th January 2025
China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining significant global export market share across the board, …
22nd January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
7th January 2025
Romania will elect a new government over the coming weeks at a time when the economy is performing poorly, inflation is running above target, and macroeconomic stability depends on policymakers pushing through much-needed fiscal consolidation. The most …
21st November 2024
Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are highly uncertain, not least because it is unclear how many …
6th November 2024
We think that if Vice President Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president Trump is elected, we would expect an initial adverse …
1st November 2024
The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter should unwind, we think that wage growth will generally …
21st October 2024
Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings should pave the way for improved fiscal positions, stronger …
17th October 2024
Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon technologies are likely to see higher investment and, ultimately, …
3rd October 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say Vision 2030 should be dubbed a failure. But officials …
23rd September 2024
It has been three months since policymakers unveiled plans to encourage SOEs to buy unsold homes from developers. Progress has so far been slow, not least because participation is voluntary and the incentives for firms to take part are lacking. But the …
16th August 2024
Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might happen to sanctions on Russia, and the possible …
23rd July 2024
This Asset Allocation Focus takes a fresh look at emerging market (EM) equities. Section 1 sets the stage, by briefly reviewing their performance over the past decade. Sections 2, 3 & 4 explore their exposure to three key themes: section 2 examines the …
16th July 2024
The recent rise in public spending and fall in revenues has sent the Indonesian government’s budget deficit veering towards the constitutional 3% of GDP limit. And it’s unclear how the president-elect will be able to enact his ambitious welfare plans …
10th July 2024
This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
The Third Plenum may conclude with a pledge of comprehensive reform in areas spanning the private sector, manufacturing, innovation, social security, economic management and more. That may excite hope of substantial change but, in the Party’s eyes, it has …
18th June 2024
Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but the main drag will come from weaker domestic demand, …
The authorities in several major emerging markets, including Egypt, Argentina and Nigeria, have taken important policy steps recently that may allow them to ease restrictions on access to foreign currency. But we don’t think that this is the start of a …
13th June 2024
The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the labour market and, on top of that, compositional changes …
4th June 2024
Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global shocks, they have also underscored some flaws with China’s …
16th May 2024
Most analysts expect China’s inflation rate to rebound to around 2% by 2026. In contrast, we think that persistent imbalances between supply and demand will keep it close to zero for the foreseeable future. This will make it harder to manage China’s high …
30th April 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. It already appears that global excitement about the possibilities …
9th April 2024
Positivity surrounding India’s near and long-term economic outlook is arguably at its highest in a decade, with good reason. But amid the optimism, it is easy to become complacent to the downside risks. This Focus highlights five key risks that we think …
3rd April 2024
One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes should be able to mitigate or absorb those costs. But …
26th March 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
21st March 2024
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here . Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here . The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing …
20th March 2024
Prime Minister Modi’s BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s upcoming general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a stable government with a working …
19th March 2024
The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter, Mexico would be one of the most affected EMs. And even …
12th March 2024
We discussed the implications of Russia’s election in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 12 th March. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but …
7th March 2024
The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only a little. It is likely to halve in the next few years, …
6th March 2024
The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the Premier reiterated recent welcome messages about …
5th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if he is elected again. And the factors that cushioned …
23rd February 2024
The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively optimistic on the medium-term outlook and still think that …
9th February 2024
Remittances are often an underappreciated source of foreign currency for India. While growth in remittances will slow in the next few years, they should remain an important source of external funding for the economy and help to keep the current account …
7th February 2024
Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile is likely to struggle to substantially raise copper and …
6th February 2024
Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the challenge of achieving macroeconomic stability is …
25th January 2024
Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a success too. The short point is that we think sentiment now …
24th January 2024
India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in large part because of the detrimental impact it could have …
23rd January 2024
Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In fact, repeated efforts to shore up short-run growth …
22nd January 2024
The optimism about Mexico’s economic prospects from the “nearshoring” of supply chains looks overdone in our view. Sectors where Mexico is already well established, such as autos and some electronics products, stand to benefit. But without major reforms …
8th January 2024
The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or changed their geopolitical stance. Even then, the …
7th December 2023
The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China. Instead, we now think that it leans more towards …
7th November 2023
The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to the services-driven economic development path pursued by …
2nd November 2023
Note: We previewed Poland’s election and the economic and financial market issues surrounding it in a Drop-In on Thursday, 12 th October . Watch the 20-minute recording here . The outcome of Poland’s parliamentary election this Sunday will likely have a …
11th October 2023
Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular, social reforms have helped the female participation rate to …
4th October 2023
Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas, such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing sharply – and by …
3rd October 2023
