Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed over January and February, driven by a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. Fiscal expenditure is set to pick up over the coming months, but that will largely be offset by the drag from US …
24th March 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity picked up in December, but that was only enough to drive a modest uptick over Q4 as a whole. The CAP indicates that the economy grew by just 4.4% in 2024, well below the official figure of 5.0%. As a result …
28th January 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth slowed in November. That was partly driven by a slowdown in fiscal support, reflected in weaker services activity in particular. But industrial activity also slowed on the back of weakening exports. …
31st December 2024
We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so far this year has been weaker than we originally …
27th November 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main driver was financial services activity which was …
29th October 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed in August, with construction seeing the sharpest deceleration. Alongside today’s monetary easing, an uptick in fiscal spending will help keep the economy afloat over the rest of this year, but it won’t …
24th September 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But once support starts to fade and export growth weakens, …
29th August 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal support will be ramped up soon, which should provide a …
30th July 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support and new property support measures may continue to …
30th May 2024
This is a revamped version of our quarterly Financial Risk Monitor to include commentary and analysis of our latest EM risk indicators. EM risks ease further, but fiscal risks remain acute Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM …
30th April 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in the near-term, structural headwinds will start to drag …
24th April 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow later this year as policy support fades. The CAP is our …
27th March 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further recovery is likely in the near-term. But we think momentum …
23rd January 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less downbeat, further gains are likely in the near-term, but …
20th December 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy was still making headway last month, though it appears to have lost some steam. Downside risks continue to linger, particularly in the property sector. But we think policy support will keep the …
20th November 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing, this recovery should continue over the coming quarters. …
25th October 2023
The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in the near term, as growth falters. But further ahead …
2nd October 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support is being stepped up, which should underpin a further …
20th September 2023
The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that risk premia may rise again – and valuations may fall – …
26th July 2023
Financial risks across the major EMs look relatively well contained for the time being but there are some areas of weakness. Most immediately, following President Erdogan’s election victory the prospect of continued unorthodox policymaking in Turkey …
31st May 2023
Click here to read the full report . This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monito r publications. … Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May …
12th May 2023
Financial risks across the emerging world have eased since the start of the year but, with the Fed’s Jerome Powell all but confirming a higher peak for US rates, there is still scope for EMs with weak balance sheets to get punished. Although current …
8th March 2023
Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last year. More Frontier Markets are likely to join Sri Lanka …
7th December 2022
Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that flows into both equity and bonds have eased a little. If …
6th December 2022
Tighter global monetary policy and the strength of the US dollar continue to punish a number of frontier markets with weak sovereign balance sheets. Meanwhile, worries about Turkey’s balance of payments position remain acute, and external risks are …
5th September 2022
