Rise in net lending likely to prove temporary May’s increase in net lending is unlikely to be sustained. Indeed, with capital values expected to decline, we think that demand for credit will be subdued this year. Net lending by banks and building …
1st July 2019
Another weak set of PMIs point to loss of momentum into H2 The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second …
Central Europe set for an industrial-sector slowdown June’s PMI data point to a marked slowdown in industrial output growth in Central Europe over the coming quarters. Elsewhere, Turkey’s latest PMI reading suggests that, following a disappointing Q2, …
PMI readings not a barrier to policy loosening India’s manufacturing PMI reading remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will be adopted …
Activity cools heading into Q3 The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy is coming under renewed pressure as a result of cooling foreign demand and waning fiscal support, which should trigger further monetary easing. The Caixin manufacturing PMI …
June data point to a weak end to Q2 Very weak trade data for Korea and the fall in the manufacturing PMIs in June suggest that economic conditions deteriorated at the end of last quarter. After a weak Q1, GDP growth looks unlikely to have improved much, …
Prices may rise in 2020 We expect the pace of house price declines will continue to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in 2020 and 5% in …
Economy may be past the worst The Tankan’s all industry index fell at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first, which suggests that the economy may be past the worst. That said, the slowdown has started to ease capacity shortages and dampen …
Downside risk to oil & gas output in H2 The solid 0.3% m/m gain in monthly GDP in April supports our view that second-quarter GDP growth was between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. But that strength was mainly due to a recovery from a series of disruptions in …
28th June 2019
Boost from preparing for Brexit will reverse GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the economy …
Higher core inflation won’t deflect ECB from loosening While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have …
Confidence weakens, but consumer spending should hold up Given the mounting concerns over a no deal Brexit, it is perhaps unsurprising that the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence dropped back in June. But with real wage growth strong and inflation …
Franc to rise further despite subdued Swiss activity The modest decline in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in June lends further support to our view that the Swiss economy will lose momentum over the course of this year. And with the franc likely to rise …
Strong exports supporting growth Vietnam’s economy grew strongly in the second quarter of the year and the economy is likely to perform well over the coming year, helped by booming exports to the US. We have reservations about the reliability of Vietnam’s …
Economy probably continued to expand in Q2 While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods shipments in …
Weaker sentiment bolsters case for further ECB action June’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that GDP growth in the currency union slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. It is also likely to strengthen ECB …
27th June 2019
ESIs suggest CEE growth remained strong in Q2 June’s set of ESIs suggests that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remained at around 4% y/y in Q2. But over the coming quarters, problems in the euro-zone are likely to take a greater …
Private consumption gaining momentum The solid rise in retail sales values in May suggests that consumption growth will be quite strong in the second quarter and we think that it will continue to expand at a rapid rate in the third quarter. The 0.3% m/m …
Hefty stock drawdowns are more about supply than demand We think last week’s unexpectedly large decline in US crude stocks can be explained more by the fall in OPEC production than by surging domestic demand. That said, we do not think that the latest …
26th June 2019
Orders weighed down by Boeing’s woes The 1.3%m/m decline in durable goods was largely a reflection of Boeing’s problems following the grounding of its 737 Max, with the rebound in underlying orders and shipments suggesting that business equipment …
Mortgage approvals still at higher than expected levels Loans for house purchase eased slightly in May, but were still higher than at any other point since April 2017. There was a fall back in loans extended for re-mortgaging and we expect loans for house …
New home sales set to rebound over next couple of months A healthy level of inventory means the new home market is well placed to benefit from the recent rise in housing demand, and we therefore expect sales will rebound from the drop seen in May over the …
25th June 2019
Inflation drop and newsflow on pensions tips balance towards July cut The sharp fall in Brazilian mid-month inflation, from 4.9% y/y in May to 3.8% y/y in June, coming alongside positive newsflow surrounding pension reform, tips the balance towards a 25bp …
As expected and in line with BBA data for July, mortgage approvals rebounded slightly from June’s 18-month low, when lending was constrained by special factors. But the poor economic outlook argues against a sustained improvement. … Mortgage Lending …
30th August 2012
