The solid 0.3% m/m gain in monthly GDP in April supports our view that second-quarter GDP growth was between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. But that strength was mainly due to a recovery from a series of disruptions in the first quarter, when the economy barely expanded at all. We expect growth to slow again in the second half of this year, particularly now that there are clear signs the US economy is losing momentum.
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