Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Region: G10 Use setting G10 Use setting Monetary Policy
Housing rebound continues unabated Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today. Nonetheless, with resurgent …
1st August 2023
Australia’s house-price rebound showed no signs of slowing in June. However, with the RBA set to swing its rate hammer a few more times, we’re sticking with our view that the upturn will prove fleeting. House prices rose by 1.1% m/m in seasonally-adjusted …
3rd July 2023
Recession will drive RBNZ to cut rates by Q4 The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year-end. The …
15th June 2023
RBA could be forced to keep hiking into economic downturn Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace. …
7th June 2023
Good news on inflation but core rate still high The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit further …
31st May 2023
BoE will need to work harder to conquer inflation Note: We’ll be discussing the UK April CPI report in a briefing at 10:00 BST/17:00 SGT on 24 th May. Register here. The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI …
24th May 2023
Labour market continues to run red hot New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. The 0.8% q/q rise in employment was stronger than most had …
3rd May 2023
RBA will deliver a final 25bp rate hike next week While inflation is moderating slightly faster than the RBA had anticipated, price gains remain far too strong to be consistent with the Bank’s 2-3% inflation target and we’re sticking to our forecast of a …
26th April 2023
Inflation is coming off the boil Although inflation in Q1 was below what the RBNZ had expected, we don’t expect the Bank to take its foot off the brakes just yet. Indeed, with non-tradables prices continuing to rise at a rapid clip, the RBNZ is likely to …
20th April 2023
Headline inflation tumbling, core peaking The big falls in headline inflation in Germany and Spain should provide some relief for struggling households in the coming months. And core inflation in Germany may now have passed its peak. However, with …
30th March 2023
Softness in retail sales raises risk of RBA pause The tepid rise in retail sales in February all but locks in a contraction in sales volumes in Q1. We think that a stronger rise in services spending will help keep private consumption buoyant this quarter. …
28th March 2023
Reacceleration in inflation supports the case for another rate hike The reacceleration in CPI inflation in February may be enough to tilt the Bank of England towards raising interest rates from 4.00% to 4.25% tomorrow despite the recent turmoil in the …
22nd March 2023
Economy is tipping into recession With the New Zealand economy in for more pain on the heels of the Q4 GDP decline, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting rates towards the end of the year. The -0.6% q/q drop in production GDP was weaker than most had …
15th March 2023
Strong inflation data counter financial stability concerns The 0.5% m/m rise in core consumer prices last month adds to the evidence that inflation remains stubbornly high, but the ongoing fallout from the SVB crisis over the coming days is still likely …
14th March 2023
Lower inflation means Norges Bank can stick to 25bp hikes February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. After surprising on …
10th March 2023
Slowdown in inflation won’t prevent RBA from lifting rates to 4.1% GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May …
1st March 2023
Moderating services inflation makes Bank of England’s life easier The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in …
15th February 2023
Wage growth continues to accelerate despite cooling labour demand December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of …
14th February 2023
Drag from higher interest rates intensified in December December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this …
31st January 2023
Wage and price inflation expectations still too strong for comfort The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys leave no doubt that higher interest rates are weighing on demand, but still don’t show a convincing moderation in wage and inflation …
16th January 2023
Another more muted gain in core CPI Core CPI inflation was still an elevated 5.7% in December but, with another more muted 0.3% m/m gain, the three-month annualised rate fell to a 20-month low of 3.1%. Admittedly, the latter is still slightly above the …
12th January 2023
Higher interest rates continue to weigh on the economy November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead, …
4th January 2023
Headline inflation close to a peak, but core may rise further November’s fall in headline inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone headline rate will come in lower than we had anticipated when it is published tomorrow, and is now close …
29th November 2022
Higher interest rates beginning to influence the economy October’s money and credit figures highlight how higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy. Higher interest rates are weakening the demand for credit, especially for mortgages, …
Core inflation pressures better than they look Although the annual rates of CPI-median and CPI-trim edged up in October, the 3-month annualised rates that the Bank of Canada is now focussed on declined. As that for CPI-median is now in the 1% to 3% …
16th November 2022
Inflation may have peaked, but battle not yet won It’s possible that the big leap in CPI inflation from 10.1% in September to a new 40-year high of 11.1% in October will mark the peak. But core inflation may yet rise further, which is why we think the …
Goods deflation begins; health insurance flips The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in October won’t on its own persuade the Fed to drop its hawkish stance. But we expect this to mark the start of a much longer …
10th November 2022
Inflation will approach 8% by year-end Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most anticipate. The 1.8% …
26th October 2022
Strength of core inflation points to another 75 bp hike The Bank’s core CPI inflation measures were unchanged in September but, as we expected a decline due to more favourable base effects, that increases the odds of another 75bp interest rate hike next …
19th October 2022
Strong inflation will prompt further rapid tightening The much stronger than expected rise in consumer prices in Q3 will encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates by another 50bp at its November meeting and poses upside risks to our view …
17th October 2022
