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This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and a chart of the key data. Softer Gulf PMIs, but non-oil activity holding up well July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in …
3rd August 2023
This webpage has been updated with an additional chart and table of key figures. Kingdom enters a recession on back of oil production cuts Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output …
31st July 2023
Inflation edges up and set to soar in June Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to more than 30% …
15th June 2023
After dodging recession, economy made decent start to Q2 April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, …
14th June 2023
Activity growing at a more subdued pace The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic orthodoxy – …
13th June 2023
Headline inflation to remain anchored within the RBI’s 2-6% target range Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle …
12th June 2023
Inflation ticks up as central bank sounds hawkish Russian inflation picked up slightly to 2.5% y/y in May and we think it will rise above the central bank’s 4% target in the coming months. Against a backdrop of large upside inflation risks and the hawkish …
9th June 2023
Energy drags headline inflation lower The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased . Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy tightening and …
5th June 2023
A bumper jump in GDP, but signs of underlying weakness The breakdown of Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures suggests that the economy is not as strong as the staggering 1.9% q/q rise in output would suggest. Even so, the sharp rise in output has prompted us to revise …
1st June 2023
PMIs point to further falls in manufacturing ahead The fall in the South African manufacturing PMI in May leaves it at a level consistent with modest falls in output in the sector. And the collapse in the future conditions component suggests that things …
PMIs stabilise, but growth to remain tepid The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said, the PMIs …
Economic momentum sustained at the start of Q2 The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained in the …
31st May 2023
Solid Q1, but economy set for slowdown in growth Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of President …
Activity continues to struggle Industrial production and retail sales data for April for Poland were generally on the weak side and suggest that the economy lacked momentum at the start of Q2. We think activity will soon bottom out, but the prospect of a …
23rd May 2023
Q1 acceleration, on track for full-year growth The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and retail sales …
17th May 2023
Economy slowing, but growth remains solid GDP growth remained fairly solid in Israel in Q1 (2.5% q/q annualised) as it came in slightly above expectations thanks to an unexpected surge in business investment. We think growth will come in below potential …
16th May 2023
Downturns ease, but growth to remain weak Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds remain strong and a sustained …
Copom to stay hawkish despite inflation decline The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence that core …
12th May 2023
Activity bounces back after earthquake disruption Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But the …
A stronger finish to Q1 The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for this year of 1.0%, which had …
10th May 2023
Economy posts strong growth in activity in Q1 Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the recent surge …
3rd May 2023
Disinflation process continues, but smaller falls from here Inflation in Turkey fell a bit more than expected in April, to 43.7% y/y, driven largely by a sharp decline in energy inflation, but m/m price growth remained strong and the disinflation process …
Fall in sentiment points to tepid growth The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell slightly in April, with our regional measure declining for the first time in six months. On past form, the ESIs suggest …
27th April 2023
Sharp fall in inflation as base effects pass through Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures generally …
12th April 2023
Headline CPI rate now likely to remain within target range The drop in headline consumer price inflation back to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in March supports our view that the central bank’s hiking cycle has come to an end. Headline CPI inflation …
Earthquakes take their toll on activity Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for February showed that the impact of the earthquakes on the economy was larger than we and most others had anticipated. But we think this will be short-lived …
Overall picture remains downbeat, but some green shoots Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the improvement in …
3rd April 2023
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Strength of manufacturing PMI supports rate hike this week India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged up in March and points to healthy growth in the …
Economy continues to recover in Q1 The improvement in the Russian industrial production and retail sales data for February provide further evidence that economic activity recovered at the start of this year. We think that GDP is likely to have expanded in …
29th March 2023
Economy continues to boom in early 2023 The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the earthquakes last month, …
13th March 2023
Broad-based falls in inflation last month Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been enough …
10th March 2023
Industrial downturns in CEE bottoming out The manufacturing PM Is for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of its …
1st March 2023
Strong Q4, but slowdown in store for 2023 Turkey’s economy expanded by 0.9% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q4, but growth remained unbalanced as it was driven largely by private consumption while net trade provided a sizable drag. We think growth will slow towards …
28th February 2023
Shallower contraction in GDP as sanctions hit fades The 2.1% contraction in Russian GDP in 2022 was smaller than expected and is consistent with an expansion in Q4, providing further evidence to suggest that the economy stabilised after the initial hit …
20th February 2023
Economy holds up in Q3, but higher rates now taking a toll While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity …
30th November 2022
Stabilisation in July, but strong rebound unlikely in the months ahead July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the …
22nd August 2022
Disappointing Q2 likely followed by recession Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit …
18th August 2022
