Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. We anticipate below-trend and …
30th August 2023
Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but this is likely to go into reverse in 2024. And our growth forecasts for most countries in the region are below the consensus. Inflation in most parts of Latin …
23rd August 2023
Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remained depressed and we don’t expect a meaningful recovery until 2024. Inflation pressures are building in Russia and Turkey on the back of …
22nd August 2023
Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept loose and this will continue to support strong …
21st August 2023
EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in Latin America and Emerging Europe will limit how far …
18th August 2023
India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, the surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. The onset of a severe El Niño and …
17th August 2023
Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth forecasts across the region are generally …
26th July 2023
Russia and Turkey have had a strong first half of the year, but growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains depressed and we don’t expect a meaningful recovery until 2024. While inflation pressures are building in Russia and Turkey and further …
EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in Latin America and Emerging Europe will limit how far …
20th July 2023
India's economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with inflation lodged within the RBI’s target range, a resumption of the tightening cycle looks unlikely. However, the onset of a severe El Niño is a looming threat and presents a key risk to …
19th July 2023
Our latest Chart Pack on the Middle East and North Africa is embedded below. Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest round of OPEC+ oil output cuts will …
12th July 2023
China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should still make some headway. … China Chart Pack (Jun. …
30th June 2023
Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish communications from central bankers. Investors are now …
28th June 2023
Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some central banks whose tightening cycles were particularly …
27th June 2023
The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be welcome news for Saudi Arabia as the annual Hajj pilgrimage …
This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use the menu at the top of the viewer to navigate around the …
20th June 2023
There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and Eastern Europe this year. This has been particularly …
31st May 2023
The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey , President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential election run-off next week. Hopes of an opposition …
25th May 2023
The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October. And the even more recent voluntary output reductions …
24th May 2023
Click here to read the full report. We think the economic recovery in China will support further gains in the country’s equity market. Despite some renewed evidence that China’s economy has been recovering more strongly than most anticipated in the first …
3rd May 2023
Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects resulting from the sharp rise in prices after the war in …
26th April 2023
Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first review of Egypt’s deal amid the government’s slow …
EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers in Egypt and Pakistan among others have raised …
24th April 2023
India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to take advantage of discounted prices. (See Chart 1.) And …
20th April 2023
EM Drop-In (6th Apr.): Our latest EM online briefing is all about the risks around the recent bank turmoil, including potential economic spill-overs and the state of EM bank balance sheets. Register now . Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global …
29th March 2023
One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13% so far this month. If prices were to stay at current …
24th March 2023
The turmoil in the global banking sector has not spread to Emerging Europe, but the focus is back on the health of the region’s banks given the not-so-distant memory of the 2008/09 banking crises that swept across the region. The good news is that banks …
23rd March 2023
We think even if some of the recent headwinds that have buffeted emerging market (EM) assets fade, a slowdown in global growth might keep them under pressure in the near term. EM assets have had a fairly tough month . Local-currency and …
28th February 2023
The war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary on Friday, has had a profound impact on the emerging world. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, while Russia’s has contracted too even though the imposition of sanctions has not been as severe as …
22nd February 2023
We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets (EM) this year. Despite some recent weakness, equities in China have rallied since the end of October, as a shift toward living with …
31st January 2023
The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of activity have generally improved. The outlook for external …
26th January 2023
The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had previously thought. That will provide a lift to countries …
24th January 2023
We think investors are still too optimistic on global growth, and that “risky” assets will struggle over the first half of 2023 as a result. Investors seem increasingly to have come around to our view on inflation over the past couple of months, namely …
22nd December 2022
Tightening cycles have been a key feature of 2022 across the emerging world, but the end is in sight as we enter 2023. Some EM central banks that began tightening early – for example Brazil, Chile and Czech Republic – have already brought an end to …
21st December 2022
Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s central bank has suggested that interest rates may be …
19th December 2022
Peru ’s newly-inaugurated President Boluarte’s call to bring forward the next general election to 2024 has failed to pacify protesters who took to the streets following the impeachment of President Castillo last week. The unrest is already causing …
14th December 2022
Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. Since its trough on 31 st October, the MSCI China Index has …
1st December 2022
Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in October. (See Chart 1.) Looking ahead, we think that …
23rd November 2022
EM tightening cycles have continued apace but, having started raising rates much earlier than their DM (and Asian) peers, some central banks in Latin America ( Brazil , Chile ) and Emerging Europe (Czech Republic, Poland) are drawing their hiking cycles …
19th October 2022
With monetary tightening cycles approaching their ends in many emerging markets (EMs), we think local-currency (LC) sovereign bond yields will, in general, be much lower in a couple of years than they are now. But we anticipate a significant amount …
4th October 2022
The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month. (See Chart 1.) Reluctant to allow currencies to slide too …
27th September 2022
The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the …
31st August 2022
Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected as it was able to re-orientate trade to …
We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet . Hawkish monetary policy has arguably been the biggest headwind for global financial markets this year. Rapid upward revisions to …
The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering interest rates and we expect further easing, but we …
23rd August 2022
