Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Economy showing further signs of overheating Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should keep GDP …
29th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fall in headline inflation keeps another 50bp cut on the cards The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in …
28th November 2023
Central bank in “wait and see” mode Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an easing cycle could be …
27th November 2023
Growth pick up is likely to be short-lived Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the naira’s …
24th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . High services inflation will stop Banxico from cutting for now Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is …
23rd November 2023
CBRT delivers another large hike, end of tightening in sight Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Consumption bouncing back The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by …
22nd November 2023
Inflation rises, but SARB will take comfort from weaker core pressures The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet …
Sticking to aggressive easing ... for now The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the disinflation …
21st November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic recovery now underway The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP …
20th November 2023
Israel holds up well in Q3, but sharp drop coming in Q4 The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. …
16th November 2023
Economy overheating, central bank has more work to do The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and …
15th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Struggling for momentum The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, …
Inflation quickens again, putting more pressure on the CBN to act Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to …
Retail recovery helping to offset industrial weakness September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but …
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Note: Join our Drop-In briefing on Thursday 16th November on the Xi-Biden meeting, the fracturing of the global economy, and what this means for Saudi Arabian …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Renewed food price spike the key inflation threat Headline consumer price inflation edged down to a four-month low of 4.9% y/y in October, but that’s already old news given the …
13th November 2023
Economy likely to have slowed sharply in Q3 Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening will take a …
Climbing inflation will keep pressure on the CBR The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise over …
10th November 2023
Banxico remains hawkish, but may be starting to contemplate cuts Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very …
9th November 2023
Higher services inflation to keep Banxico in hawkish mood Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to …
This page has been updated with additional charts and analysis since the first publication. Deflationary returns but is unlikely to persist CPI slipped back into deflationary territory last month. This was mostly due to a drop in food inflation. But core …
NBP pauses easing cycle, interest rates to stay high in 2024 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) surprised most analysts in pausing its easing cycle today, and we think that the scope to deliver further interest rate cuts over the coming year is quite …
8th November 2023
NBR yet to show signs of a dovish pivot The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again at 7.00% today, and offered little evidence to suggest it is considering the start of an easing cycle just yet. We currently expect an easing …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Import volumes surpass 2021 peak The year-on-year contraction in export values deepened last month. But this was mainly due to lower export prices. Export volumes were little …
7th November 2023
Inflation eased a touch, peak approaching soon Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s aggressive …
3rd November 2023
CBE stands pat as all eyes turn to post-election meeting The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that …
2nd November 2023
Retail sales continue to boom as industry comes off the boil Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the …
1st November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Another mixed bag of PMIs The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Early sign of manufacturing activity losing momentum The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the …
Another solid quarter, but slowdown awaits Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US weighs on …
31st October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Economy narrowly avoids another contraction Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water in Q3, underperforming most expectations. A jump in investment and a pick-up in …
Recession deepens on the back of voluntary oil production cut Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and …
Sharp fall in inflation, another interest rate cut incoming The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). The decline from …
Czech economy flirting with recession again The 0.3% q/q decline in Czech GDP in Q3 was worse than expected, and suggests that the economy will probably contract over the year as a whole. This weakness in the economy also increases the likelihood that the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sentiment ticks up, recovery slowing taking shape The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were another mixed bag in October, …
30th October 2023
CBR delivers a larger hike as fiscal risks mount Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we think …
27th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Copom on course for another 50bp cut next week The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its …
26th October 2023
CBRT maintaining the fight against inflation Turkey’s central bank stuck to the course today as it delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 35%. A few more large hikes are likely to be delivered in the coming months too, which should help to turn …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy slowly coming back to life Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and …
20th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication . According to official GDP, growth more than doubled in q/q terms between Q2 and Q3, reaching a healthy 5.3% annualised rate. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that …
18th October 2023
Credit growth has stabilised After slowing sharply in Q2, broad credit growth edged up in August and held steady last month. Although a sharp rebound seems unlikely, we do think credit growth could pick up somewhat over the coming quarters, especially if …
13th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes hit fresh high but prices falling China’s export values continued to contract year-on-year in September. But to the extent that foreign demand has cooled …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Deflation fears to dissipate further PPI deflation continued to ease in September. CPI inflation edged down, but core inflation remained at a six-month high, with services …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. CPI inflation drops to within target, but food inflation threat is far from over Headline consumer price inflation dropped back sharply to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in …
12th October 2023
Construction boom helps to offset manufacturing weakness Mexico’s industrial sector posted a modest 0.3% m/m rise in output in August as another jump in construction output more than offset renewed weakness in manufacturing. But more timely indicators …
Inflation now starting to take off The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the economy. We think the …
11th October 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Services inflation remains stubbornly strong The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate …
First clear signs of slowdown emerge The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year. Policy tightening …
