Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Fiscally-fuelled improvement unlikely to last long Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky. …
16th April 2024
Inflation edges down and will remain low Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed to 1.6% y/y in March on the back of weaker food and non-food inflation. While there’s likely to be a slight bump up in inflation in the second half of this year, the …
15th April 2024
Further jump in inflation means tightening cycle likely to continue Nigeria recorded another acceleration in headline inflation to 33.2% y/y in March as the previous falls in the naira have continued to push up prices. And while the naira has staged a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% …
12th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Credit growth plummets in a further sign of weak demand Bank loan and broad credit growth in China both decelerated sharply in March. (See Chart 1.)While we expect the PBOC to cut …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Export volumes remain strong Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Overinvestment will keep inflation below pre-pandemic average CPI inflation rose less than expected in March but is still trending upwards. We think an easing of food price …
11th April 2024
Inflation stabilises, easing cycle is not that far away The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. The month-on-month …
10th April 2024
Underlying services prices still providing cause for concern The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with …
BoT on hold, but cuts likely later in the year Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, but with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we still think rate cuts are …
Inflation eases even after currency plunge Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed to 33.3% y/y in March despite the near 40% fall in the pound’s official exchange rate last month. That said, the effects of the currency fall will continue to feed through …
8th April 2024
Economy running hot in Q4, momentum continues into 2024 The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of …
5th April 2024
RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central bank's 4% target, we …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Extended pause likely until 2025 The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. …
4th April 2024
Easing cycle just around the corner Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain our view that the …
Further rise in inflation will keep pressure on the CBRT to hike The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank (CBRT) to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our …
3rd April 2024
A soft end to Q1, but the Gulf economies still going strong March’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that, despite a minor tick down in the survey readings, the Gulf states enjoyed a strong start to 2024. Saudi Arabia’s survey edged down from 57.2 in …
Small improvement in CEE, Russia continues to run hot The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. Poland’s PMI inched up from 47.9 in February to 48.0, Czechia’s …
2nd April 2024
The Central Bank of Nigeria continued its hiking cycle today, raising rates by 200bp to 24.75%, providing further evidence that officials are fighting aggressively to tackle the inflation problem and restore its damaged credibility. We think that the CBN …
26th March 2024
Pace of easing slows, and will slow further before long The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today, with a 75bp cut to its base rate (to 8.25%), will probably be followed by a further slowdown in the pace …
Little change in language, possible easing from mid-2024 Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central …
22nd March 2024
Easing cycle begins but rate cuts to be slow going Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts …
21st March 2024
Governor Karahan retakes the initiative Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the potential for a …
Recovery strengthens Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for February suggest that loose fiscal policy and continued fast wage growth helped the economy to recover at the start of this year. We maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India …
Copom points to smaller cuts ahead The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon (probably at the June …
20th March 2024
This publication has been updated with additional analysis from the post-meeting press statement and press conference. CNB’s easing cycle has a lot further to run The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we …
Jump in inflation to delay start of interest rate cuts The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. …
Weak end to 2023, but better start to 2024 The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth forecast for …
18th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . A decent start to 2024 despite a still fragile consumer China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal …
Inflation hits 31%, but CBN likely to hold fire on further rate hikes Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 31.7% y/y in February and the naira’s latest sharp falls mean it will continue to march towards 35% y/y over the …
15th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Rebound in credit growth blown off course Bank loan growth in China decelerated to its slowest pace on record in February, while broad credit growth reversed most of its recent …
Inflation nudges up as rents continue to rise The increase in Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate to 1.8% y/y in February is the highest reading since August and it could creep to above 2.0% y/y in the coming quarters. The bigger picture, however, is …
14th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation picks further, rates to stay high for some time The rise in Russian inflation to 7.7% y/y in February highlights that price pressures in the economy remain strong and …
13th March 2024
Core inflation strength will worry Copom The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view that interest …
12th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slow grind back to 4% Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s …
Inflation drops, Banxico on course for rate cut this month The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board …
7th March 2024
Rates on hold throughout 2024 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate on hold (at 3.0%) today, and hinted in its statement that it was in little rush to change interest rates any time soon. This supports our view that the policy rate …
Export volumes hit record high China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited scope to reduce prices to …
We hosted a Drop-in following the announcement that can be viewed on demand here . Central Bank of Egypt shifts back towards orthodoxy The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a …
6th March 2024
Very modest growth in Q4, but 2024 should be better South Africa’s economy posted a measly 0.1% q/q increase in GDP in the final quarter of last year and the latest evidence points to a soft start to 2024 too. But we still think that, with the drags from …
5th March 2024
Gulf non-oil sectors strengthen in Q1; Egypt’s economy knocked by Israel-Hamas spillovers February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation continues to rise, tightening cycle now at risk of restarting The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given …
4th March 2024
Consumer resilience comes to an end The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re now more confident in …
1st March 2024
PMI bounces, but still looks like a soft start to 2024 Although South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in February, the sector appears to have made a soft start to the year. We still expect growth to pick up over the rest of this year as loadshedding …
Turkey and Russia continue to show signs of resilience The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey …
This report was first published on Friday 1 st March covering the official PMIs and Caixin manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on Tuesday 5 th March. An encouraging improvement in services activity The PMIs are …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Exceptional economic performance suggests no imminent rate cuts The GDP data for Q4 confirm that India’s economy ended last year with a bang. Looking ahead, we expect economic …
29th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy re-accelerates in Q4 The pick-up in Turkish GDP growth to 1.0% q/q in Q4 was driven by a rebound in private consumption and suggests that aggressive monetary tightening …
Economy maintains strong momentum The latest activity data for January suggest that Russia’s economy maintained solid growth at the start of this year, which supports our forecast for above-potential GDP growth of 3.0% over the course of 2024. Retail …
28th February 2024
