Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Mortgage possessions and arrears were broadly unchanged in the second quarter. However, taking the year as a whole, given the fragile economic and labour market outlook, it would be a surprise if they did not surpass last year’s totals. … Mortgage Arrears …
12th August 2011
The RICS survey makes dispiriting reading on any level. The latest falls in house prices will further dent confidence among homeowners. However, to date, the falls have done little to help first-time buyers. The fall in sales, meanwhile, will be worrying …
10th August 2011
The latest rise in house prices in July will be seen by some as a sign that the market has found a new equilibrium. However, increasingly downbeat news regarding the wider economy and the fact that house prices are still at historically high levels, mean …
6th August 2011
Weak economic growth has taken its toll on consumer confidence and employment growth. As a result, despite low interest rates the housing market continues to struggle, so much so that even London maybe beginning to waver. … Housing market stagnates as the …
5th August 2011
With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We still expect spending to drop further next year. … …
3rd August 2011
While restricted credit availability is clearly an important factor, until the pressure on consumer incomes eases and confidence improves, regardless of what happens to credit availability, there is limited scope for a recovery in mortgage demand. … What …
We doubt that the rise in the number of mortgage approvals marks the start of a recovery in housing market activity. Hence, with the benefits of low interest rates being relentlessly eroded by the rising cost of living, the recent stability of house …
30th July 2011
Despite holding firm in June, the underlying trend in national average house prices remains negative. Moreover, June also brought tentative evidence that even in London, prices are now softening. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
29th July 2011
Despite June’s rise, mortgage approvals have remained broadly flat over the past year. With the squeeze on household incomes unlikely to ease anytime soon and with few signs of looser lending conditions in the mortgage market, it is difficult to foresee a …
26th July 2011
If sustained, the latest rise in net migration should add to the upward pressures on rents over the next few years. But if the increase continues to owe as much to fewer British citizens leaving the country as it does to foreign citizens arriving, the …
23rd July 2011
The low level of forced selling over the past few years, which has been a key support for average house prices, owes much to the low level of mortgage interest rates. But given the squeeze on real incomes already seen and with further rises in food and …
22nd July 2011
The common perception is that the fiscal squeeze will prompt the traditional North-South divide to widen. However, we think it is more likely that the different regions of the UK will see a more uniform performance in the next few years than in the past. …
15th July 2011
The fact that the relationship between house prices and mortgage approvals has loosened over recent years does not mean that it has lost all its value. But in the absence of fresh, sharp falls in employment, higher interest rates or an end to lender …
Our views on valuation, as well as our expectations that the economy and housing market activity levels will remain weak, mean that we anticipate further falls in house prices. But the fact that interest rates are likely to be kept on hold may mean that …
14th July 2011
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence that the outlook for activity and prices in the housing market is soft. Even if it is sustained, the slowing in the rate at which new properties are coming onto the market is unlikely to be …
13th July 2011
More properties are coming onto the market but buyers remain in relatively short supply hampered by tight credit conditions and increasingly, renewed uncertainty about the economic outlook. The difficulty of measuring house prices in such thin trading …
8th July 2011
The bounce in house prices in June is unlikely to signal that the downwards pressure on house prices has abated. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify until well into next year, house prices still have further to fall. … Halifax House Prices …
7th July 2011
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the near-term outlook for commercial property lending may be slightly more positive than in the residential sector. But lending prospects in both markets still look pretty subdued. … Bank of England Credit …
1st July 2011
The Nationwide house price index was unchanged in June. But the regional indices show that the resilience of the national index over the past year or so is largely down to London where, in contrast to the rest of the country, house prices continue to …
The latest mortgage lending figures confirm that housing market activity remains very weak. That’s unlikely to change while the squeeze on real pay continues. … Mortgage Lending …
30th June 2011
May’s fall in the Land Registry’s index of house prices offset all of the previous month’s rise and confirmed the downward trend in prices on this measure. House price falls are likely to be extended into the rest of this year and next. … Land Registry …
29th June 2011
May’s rise in the BBA measure of mortgage approvals failed to make up even half of last month’s steep fall. Thus the data seem to confirm that more than just temporary factors have been weighing on activity in the housing market. … BBA Mortgage Lending …
24th June 2011
Those looking for a loosening in mortgage lending criteria will be disappointed by the latest FSA data. What’s more, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest may be storing up problems for the medium-term. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
22nd June 2011
Cash buyers continue to be a key support to housing market activity levels. But we remain sceptical that this demonstrates that a lack of mortgage lending, rather than stretched valuations and concerns about the sustainability of the recovery, is the only …
21st June 2011
The government’s proposal for permission-free office/industrial to residential conversions is pretty radical and, relative to what might otherwise have occurred, we estimate that the proposals could potentially lead to an extra 1m dwellings. Even if that …
17th June 2011
The drop in completed sales in May could be a hangover from the disruption caused by this year’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations. But it could also simply be further evidence of the fragile and fitful nature of the economic recovery. … RICS …
15th June 2011
According to the Bank of England, advertised tracker and two-year fixed mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low in May. Yet the growing gap between advertised rates and the average rates being paid by new borrowers suggests that fewer and fewer …
14th June 2011
It was hardly surprising that surveyors reported another increase in tenant demand in the three months to April. But the rise in the number of new lettings instructions adds to our belief that rental value growth will soften later this year. … RICS …
10th June 2011
The strength of demand from overseas buyers is often presented as a reason why London is, and is likely to remain, a seller’s market. But the RICS survey suggests that their influence may be waning, meaning that it may not be too long before buyers in the …
9th June 2011
Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment rises by as much as we expect this year, a further …
7th June 2011
The latest small rise in the Halifax house price index does little to change the bigger picture that prices on this measure are trending lower. Given the struggling economic recovery and the fact that the fiscal contraction will only get more severe from …
The latest fall in the Bank of England mortgage approvals numbers was surely driven at least in part by April’s one-off events. But underlying demand is clearly still weak. … Mortgage Lending …
1st June 2011
The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are only set to build through 2011. … Land Registry Repeat …
31st May 2011
December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the medium term. … Nationwide House Prices …
27th May 2011
Although April’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations may have depressed mortgage market activity, today’s weak figures are consistent with the struggling economic recovery. What’s more, the chances of a meaningful improvement in mortgage lending, …
25th May 2011
The low starting point for interest rates, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest and the record level of mortgage debt relative to earnings mean that borrowers are more exposed than ever before to a sustained round of monetary policy …
23rd May 2011
Housebuilding activity bounced back strongly in the first quarter, albeit from an extremely low base. However, we doubt that the recovery can maintain this momentum. Indeed, on balance, we believe that any gains in housebuilding activity are unlikely to …
20th May 2011
We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests that housing is overvalued. Although neither measure is …
16th May 2011
Against a backdrop of subdued wage growth and a weakening labour market, the rise in mortgage possession cases seen in the first quarter of the year is unlikely to be the last. … Mortgage Arrears and Possessions …
12th May 2011
The share of buy-to-let in the wider mortgage market continued to rise in the first three months of the year. But that has more to do with the weakness of activity among owner occupiers than burgeoning demand among landlords. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors’ house price expectations remained firmly in negative …
10th May 2011
After stabilising in the past few months, the main house price indices again appear to be on their way back down. Given the weak activity data and the overvaluation in the market, this should come as little surprise. … Halifax House Prices …
9th May 2011
5th May 2011
We continue to expect falling real incomes to prompt consumer spending to drop this year. In fact, with inflation possibly heading to 5% and pay growth showing few signs of following, we recently revised our forecast for the fall in spending this year …
4th May 2011
The fact that mortgage lending continues to run at incredibly low levels is weighing on house prices. But while prices appear to be slipping only slowly for now, job losses from the fiscal consolidation will see larger falls come through later this year. …
The mortgage market remained in the doldrums in March. Approvals for house purchase data suggest that buyers remained largely inactive in the face of the growing squeeze on household incomes, fragile consumer confidence and recent speculation about the …
27th April 2011
We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing house prices. Yet comparing house prices to equity …
21st April 2011
The required correction in real house prices will not be delivered via above-target inflation. With earnings growth failing to keep pace with inflation, in order to close the gap between house prices and earnings, nominal house prices will have to fall as …
18th April 2011
We have not changed our view that the housing market is overvalued. But recent developments in the housing and macroeconomic data point to a slower, more drawnout correction than we were previously forecasting. Thus, we have revised our forecasts. We have …
13th April 2011
