Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for at least several months more, we think a rebound in …
11th June 2019
Despite an improvement in mortgage approvals, the housing market has struggled to gather any upward momentum. Indeed, with buyer confidence still weak and house prices still high relative to incomes, we expect house price growth to stay below 2% y/y out …
7th June 2019
The faster rate of house price growth recorded by the Halifax is an outlier, and should largely be discounted. Indeed, the other main indices report house prices rising by less than 2% per year – a trend which we expect to persist until 2021. … Halifax …
Recent housing proposals from Labour, if enacted, could have major consequences for the housing market. On the plus side, abolishing stamp duty could help to unclog housing transactions. But proposals to empower public sector housing development, combined …
4th June 2019
April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. … Mortgage Lending …
31st May 2019
Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. … Nationwide House Prices …
Mortgage approvals for house purchase saw a surprisingly large rise in April, but we doubt that signals the start of a sustained rebound in lending. Indeed, with all other signs consistent with softening housing market activity, the latest surge in …
28th May 2019
Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate environment, which we think will start to unwind across our …
23rd May 2019
Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make a major difference to housing supply longer-term. … …
14th May 2019
Housing market conditions were weak in April, as the delay to Brexit did little to rebuild confidence in among buyers and sellers. Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty and high house prices to further hold back activity, driving a small fall in mortgage …
10th May 2019
Falling buyer enquiries and sales instructions point to further housing market weakness. And the rental market data also suggest that landlord instructions weakened. That supports our view that rental growth will accelerate over the next few years. … RICS …
9th May 2019
The sharp rise in Halifax house price growth stands in contrast to the other housing market data and should be interpreted with care. Indeed, our outlook for house price growth is much weaker, with prices set to grow by just 1% y/y in 2019, and by 2% y/y …
8th May 2019
Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings, we expect to see only a modest rise in mortgage lending …
3rd May 2019
We doubt that March’s slump in mortgage approvals signals the start of a collapse in mortgage lending. Rather, assuming a Brexit deal is done later this year, we think lending will see a modest fall in 2019, before recovering gently in 2020. … Mortgage …
1st May 2019
House price growth was subdued in April, and we expect that trend to continue across our forecast – even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed later this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave house price growth sluggish further out. That said, we …
26th April 2019
March’s surprise rise in mortgage approvals is unlikely to be repeated next month. That said, the fact that lending has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty so far, supports our view that any drop in approvals this year will be modest. … …
The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But should a Brexit deal be struck in October, which is our …
24th April 2019
There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be temporary. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
18th April 2019
The latest RICS survey was slightly less gloomy than a month ago, but this is unlikely to signal any change in the underlying market. Given Brexit concerns, conditions are likely to remain weak near term, with little improvement in activity or prices …
11th April 2019
February’s jump in the Halifax price measure was an outlier in a gloomy run of housing data, so it wasn’t a surprise that this has been partly reversed. The March figure is more in line with a backdrop of falling demand and weak sentiment, and broadly …
5th April 2019
An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal strengthening demand. Indeed, we expect new home sales in London …
3rd April 2019
January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect approvals to fall a little further in 2019. … Mortgage …
29th March 2019
London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital will continue to fall in 2019, while price gains across …
In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we think housing starts …
28th March 2019
Despite a slight rise in house purchase mortgage approvals during February, the outlook for lending is weak. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed soon, we expect no meaningful recovery in mortgage lending during 2019. … UK Finance Mortgage …
26th March 2019
House price growth in London has been surprisingly resilient. But with prices very high, interest rates set to rise and the stock of unsold homes growing, we expect a 3% fall in house prices this year. Meanwhile, all signs point to the weakness in …
22nd March 2019
Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. … When will standard variable rates …
20th March 2019
Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty remaining high and more tax hikes in prospect, but after that …
15th March 2019
In recent decades, falling mortgage interest rates have allowed home buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. But that support for house prices has now been exhausted. Indeed, our long-run interest rate view is consistent with a moderate fall in …
14th March 2019
The new buyer enquiries balance fell to a post-crisis low in February, but we doubt that a crash is imminent. That view is consistent with surveyors’ expectations, which anticipate a small improvement in activity and prices next year – once the Brexit fog …
Lending terms did not materially loosen in Q4, despite evidence of a pick-up in competitive pressures among lenders. Looking ahead, with uncertainty weighing in the near-term, and interest rates likely to rise once the Brexit fog clears, the likelihood of …
12th March 2019
Conditions in the housing market have seen no improvement over the last month. Indeed, the data suggest that new buyer enquiries deteriorated at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Looking ahead, leading indicators suggest that transactions will …
7th March 2019
We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by just 1% in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken in the coming months. … Mortgage Lending …
1st March 2019
February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will accelerate only a little in 2019, to just 1% y/y. … …
28th February 2019
An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of buyers affected is still modest relative to the wider …
27th February 2019
Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
26th February 2019
While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2% target, households are now enjoying the first sustained …
21st February 2019
Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for margins to shrink further, meaning mortgage interest rates …
20th February 2019
Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing market to stay in limbo for the rest of the year. … …
14th February 2019
There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and should be welcomed, not criticised. … Are homes being built …
12th February 2019
House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its toll on sentiment. Looking ahead, that trend looks set …
8th February 2019
While house prices have some downward momentum, we don’t think that heralds the start of a sustained fall. Rather, we expect house price growth to maintain its sluggish pace in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
7th February 2019
Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still many different ways Brexit could play out and this …
5th February 2019
The rise in owner occupation recorded in the English Housing Survey is probably more than just noise. And with a revival in buy-to-let unlikely, that trend looks set to persist, suggesting that owner occupation may have reached an inflection point. … Is …
Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in the short run. But we doubt that the rate of …
1st February 2019
January’s very weak result for house price growth was unexpected, but we don’t think it heralds the start of a sustained decline in prices. Indeed, assuming a Brexit deal is done, we think prices will rise by 1% this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st January 2019
After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of March, we think approvals will fall by 2% this year. … …
30th January 2019
Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in interest rates. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
25th January 2019
