Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Today's RICS data point to an emphatic rebound in occupier market confidence and activity, supporting our view that there'll be a solid rental recovery next year. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 …
8th November 2013
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that confidence in the prospects for commercial property occupier demand is now firmly entrenched. IPD all-property rental values have already shown signs of a recovery in the past few months and today's data …
4th November 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in September. But lenders' exposure to property is now at its lowest level in a decade and the scope for this long period of deleveraging to end next year is surely increasing. … Lending to …
29th October 2013
All-property rental values ticked up by 0.1%m/m in September while yields edged lower. As a result, capital values rose by 0.6%m/m. That was the largest monthly gain since April 2010. But perhaps more notable was the fact that capital values rose in all …
28th October 2013
Growing numbers of investors appear to be looking beyond London and other prime markets, and for many Manchester seems to be a key target. Our top-down analysis suggests that the prospects for rents and yields in Manchester are positive, especially for …
23rd October 2013
Today's RICS Construction Survey had a distinctly positive tone, with both residential and commercial property activity reported to have risen strongly in Q3. This points to developers having confidence in the prospects for occupier demand and clearly …
22nd October 2013
Banks and building societies continue to shrink their commercial property loan books and the signs are that this process still has further to run. Admittedly, there may now be scope for the deleveraging to end a little sooner than we previously thought, …
16th October 2013
Transactions-based yields have fallen pretty sharply in recent months and, rather than technicalities to do with shifts in the mix of properties being traded, this is another sign of a genuine improvement in investor demand and market pricing. Commercial …
15th October 2013
Although there were some encouraging signs, the big picture from today’s Bank of England Credit Conditions survey was that lenders still seem nervous about expanding their residential or commercial property lending activities. But at least the rise in …
9th October 2013
Occupier confidence has finally taken a turn for the better. We think that this will accelerate the recovery in commercial property rents and prices. The consensus view is that IPD all-property capital values will increase by 2% in 2014 and again in 2015. …
8th October 2013
We suspect that the drop in financial services sector output indicated by the latest CBI/PwC survey was simply a seasonal lull and that Central London office rents will continue to grow. Moreover, strong confidence readings from this survey add to …
7th October 2013
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property developers are increasingly confident about the prospects for occupier demand and, hence, rental values. The conventional wisdom is that rents will only edge higher over the coming year, …
2nd October 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in August and the sector’s share of total outstanding debt is now only a touch above 9%, the lowest level for a decade. We think this process has further to run but will remain orderly, with …
30th September 2013
On top of a small rise in rental values, capital values were also boosted in August by a further modest fall in yields. Indeed, all-property capital values were up by 0.4%m/m, the strongest figure in more than three years. And for the first time since May …
26th September 2013
Inbound tourism volumes continue to drift upwards and many UK residents are seemingly still content to save money and take a domestic holiday rather than go abroad. This should help hotel capital values to continue to rise gradually over 2013-14, but no …
25th September 2013
UK-based investing institutions were net sellers of commercial property in Q2. But this seems more likely to be a temporary blip rather than the start of a sustained sell-off and we think the nascent commercial property recovery remains on track. … …
20th September 2013
With yields already at low levels, the pace of Central London shop capital value growth is likely to slow over the next year or so. But with rents looking well-supported, falls in capital values in either absolute or relative terms are not yet on the …
19th September 2013
The Central London office market clearly still has a significant degree of momentum and we have revised up our rental growth forecasts by two or three percentage points each year for 2013 to 2015. … The prospects for Central London office rents have …
12th September 2013
The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs rose strongly again in Q2. Despite the looming spike in new Central London office development completions, this continued demand growth looks set to drive further rental value increases in the …
11th September 2013
The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale already nudging upwards, and set to rise much further …
6th September 2013
August’s CIPS/Markit PMI indicated that developers anticipate a pick-up in occupier demand in the next few quarters, while the latest mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data were also encouraging. Our central forecast is that all-property rents will only edge …
3rd September 2013
Net lending to commercial property was particularly weak in July, although we would be very wary of jumping to the conclusion that banks have abandoned forbearance. Indeed, we suspect that further deleveraging will be slow and steady, not preventing a …
30th August 2013
While yields on gilts have continued to track those on US Treasuries closely, some decoupling is still possible. For one, both central banks have tied their monetary policy to the unemployment rate, and we believe that joblessness will fall faster in the …
28th August 2013
We recently revised up our GDP forecasts for both this year and next. Although it is tempting to conclude that commercial property occupier demand and rental values will be correspondingly stronger, things may not be quite that simple. Nevertheless, all …
Despite flat rents, a further small fall in yields in July was enough for all-property capital values to tick up by 0.2%m/m, the second such rise in a row. Meanwhile, investment market activity was strong, albeit boosted once again by purchases of …
23rd August 2013
The pace of employment growth has slowed in several regions over the past few months but picked up in Scotland and the North West. Other factors such as existing vacancy rates are obviously relevant, but, at least at face value, the jobs data suggest that …
21st August 2013
Despite anecdotal evidence that the regions are coming back into focus, the latest commercial property transactions data suggest that London continues to take most of investors’ attention. Without much broader-based investor demand, the emerging recovery …
15th August 2013
Our central commercial property forecasts are unchanged from the previous Analyst . The recovery has begun and, driven both by gradually rising rents and gently falling yields, we expect all-property capital values to increase by about 3% over the next …
13th August 2013
Corporate bond yield spreads are currently pretty low in an historical context and suggest that there are few fears about the viability of UK firms. At the margin, this is another reason to think that investor sentiment in the commercial property market …
9th August 2013
The continued improvement in consumer-related economic indicators clearly bodes well for retail property rents, with the recent lack of new development raising the scope for hotspots to emerge outside London too. But with a broad-based occupier demand …
6th August 2013
Both Q2’s RICS commercial property survey and July’s CIPS/Markit construction PMI had a positive tone and add to a range of other evidence that the next move in rents will be upwards. Of course, with existing vacancy rates still elevated, it is likely …
2nd August 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative for the 19th consecutive month in June and we do not think that the end of the deleveraging process is in sight yet. But with wider sentiment improving, sluggish lending activity will not be enough to …
29th July 2013
Initial yields edged down in June. Combined with the small rise in rental values, this was enough for all-property capital values to increase by 0.2%m/m. This was the first significant increase in capital values in two years. There is plenty of scope for …
25th July 2013
The balance of surveyors reporting rising workloads in the private commercial and industrial sub-sectors of the construction industry hit a four-and-a-half year high in the second quarter. This suggests that confidence in the outlook for commercial …
24th July 2013
July’s Colliers/Real Estate capital pricing survey suggests that investor interest in regional and secondary property is hardening. Not surprisingly, therefore, the survey’s forecasts for commercial property capital values have been revised higher. … …
23rd July 2013
Given recent outperformance by consumer-related sectors of the economy, it is little surprise that distribution warehouse property has also fared relatively well. Granted, rents in the sector are yet to rise materially. But availability is falling and we …
18th July 2013
To us, the prospects for consumer spending on leisure services remain pretty good and anecdotal evidence certainly suggests that institutional buyers are increasingly targeting leisure property. We expect leisure returns over 2013-15 to be comfortably …
15th July 2013
One “big call” that has been part of our forecasts for some time now is that South East offices will be amongst the best performing segments over the next year or two. To be fair, rents and capital values are unlikely to surge in absolute terms. But …
10th July 2013
To us, the recent surge in hotel deals is not indicative of any sharp, sector-specific improvement in the underlying demand drivers. Instead, investors simply seem to have been making opportunistic purchases of distressed portfolios. In our view, hotel …
8th July 2013
The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions survey shows that the supply of finance continues to improve in both the residential and commercial property sectors. However, there has been no easing in residential credit scoring criteria, while commercial …
3rd July 2013
The construction PMI indicates that, after four months of falls, commercial property activity was broadly stable in June. This hardly suggests that developers anticipate a surge in occupier demand or rents anytime soon. But at least the data do not …
2nd July 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in May. Existing lenders are likely to continue to cut the size of their property loan books in the coming months, although there are few signs that new, non-bank lenders are about to halt their …
1st July 2013
The recent bond market sell-off is unlikely to trigger a commercial property triple-dip. But it may take the heat out of London and other prime segments, while also acting as a catalyst for increased investor interest in regional or secondary markets. …
27th June 2013
Initial yields were broadly stable again in May, but once you take the figures down to two decimal places, all-property capital values rose. The gain of 0.01%m/m was obviously miniscule, but it was nevertheless the first increase since October 2011. We …
25th June 2013
UK-based investing institutions continued to expand their commercial property portfolios in Q1. Historically, this has been associated with rising capital values and we remain confident that modest gains will indeed be seen in H2 this year. … …
21st June 2013
The IPD data for May appear to show that commercial property values have turned the corner. With both economic sentiment and the hard economic activity data now delivering more positive than negative surprises, the risk that this turns out to be a false …
18th June 2013
The latest FBS jobs data support our view that Manchester will be amongst the best performing Big Six (non-London) office markets this year, as it was in 2012. But given high vacancy rates and soft demand prospects, Birmingham and Glasgow will be further …
13th June 2013
The continued, steady increase in the number of financial & business services sector jobs in the first three months of the year should provide a further boost to London office rents for at least the next few quarters. … Financial and business services …
12th June 2013
The divergence between out-of-town and in-town shopping centre capital values is not over yet. We suspect that, over the next three years, stronger growth in rental values will deliver further gains in out-of-town capital values while the value of in-town …
6th June 2013
