Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
The pace of construction activity fell across the board in the second quarter. That said, skill shortages mean that activity in the sector had been losing momentum for a year, so we would be reluctant to lay all the blame at Brexit’s door. … RICS …
28th July 2016
The latest RICS Commercial Property Survey gave fresh evidence that sentiment in the property sector has deteriorated since June’s referendum. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey …
25th July 2016
Our central view is that the outlook for commercial property is healthier than the recent gloomy headlines would suggest. Nevertheless, there is a latent risk that negative sentiment itself could become self-fulfilling. If this is the case, then a flurry …
22nd July 2016
Job creation was healthy in May, reflecting strong labour demand prior to the referendum. And while these figures seem to bode well for property, we would not give them too much weight as lower confidence and employment growth will probably feed through …
20th July 2016
Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks equally negative. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
13th July 2016
June’s investment data showed steady transactional activity compared to May. But this reflects the final month before the impact of the referendum result is felt. Accordingly, with commercial property sentiment softening and uncertainty reigning, we …
12th July 2016
The outcome of the vote has dented the outlook for occupier demand, and as a result we have cut our all-property rental value growth forecasts for the next two years, from 2.9% and 2.4% respectively, to 2.5% and 2%. That said, with interest rates expected …
6th July 2016
In the wake of the referendum result, some property funds have reacted by cutting the value of their assets, and even stopping fund outflows. However, by limiting outflows, funds can allow the dust to settle and stop fire sales from triggering the …
5th July 2016
The commercial construction PMI fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in June. This highlights the extent to which the uncertainty around the EU referendum was weighing on developers’ activity. The result of the referendum would have done little to …
4th July 2016
The outlook for London’s office market is undeniably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. But although we have cut our forecasts in response to last week’s vote, we think there are reasons to believe that some of the most gloomy predictions may have …
1st July 2016
Net lending to property increased in May, reversing much of April’s losses. And the fact that development lending registered its first material rise since 2011 can be seen as a sign that traditional lenders were becoming more comfortable extending credit …
29th June 2016
Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger a correction in the market seem overly pessimistic. … …
24th June 2016
With the contribution of rental growth and yield compression fading, capital value growth is expected to moderate further. Yet, with economic and employment growth set to be solid, and interest rates low, rents and capital values are unlikely to correct …
23rd June 2016
Leisure rental value growth has slowed dramatically since December. However, over the medium term, muted sentiment and leisure spending are both more likely to improve than deteriorate. As a result, we feel fairly comfortable with our current leisure …
21st June 2016
In April, the pace of job creation picked up for the second consecutive month. Moreover, with vacancies still high and job creation mainly driven by full-time positions, occupier demand conditions should stay fairly positive. … Employment …
15th June 2016
Last year’s huge surge in investment activity outside the traditional property sectors has not been replicated this year. But even adjusting for this, we have observed a substantial slowdown in activity of about 25% from last year’s peak. To us, however, …
14th June 2016
In May, the value of commercial property deals fell to its second lowest reading this year. That said, we think the moderation in activity reflects pricing concerns more than the Brexit -related uncertainty. As a result, even in the event of an ‘in’ vote …
8th June 2016
The commercial construction PMI dipped once more in May adding to the signs that last year’s spike in commercial development activity will not be repeated in 2016. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
2nd June 2016
Net lending to the property sector fell in April. However, April’s losses barely made a dent in the previous two months’ gains, and with traditional lenders’ exposure to property stabilising, we wouldn’t read too much into today’s fall. … Lending to …
1st June 2016
Released last week, the DeMontford Commercial Property Lending Survey painted a positive picture. Indeed, loan origination and the stock of outstanding debt both rose, while distressed loans fell. That said, lending to development still seems constrained …
31st May 2016
At the all-property level, our forecasts are slightly more positive than the Consensus. However, since we expect any tightening of monetary conditions to be gradual and economic growth hold up fairly well, we feel comfortable with our bullish position. …
27th May 2016
The consensus within the property sector is that, in the event of a vote to remain within the EU, investment demand and activity would rise significantly in the second half of 2016. However, we think that high valuations and the prospect of higher …
26th May 2016
The moderation in capital value growth is likely to continue given that investment activity is subdued, and yield compression and rental value growth are both slowing. However, without a drastic inflation or demand shock, steady growth and low interest …
25th May 2016
The slowdown in capital value growth and total returns that we anticipated in our previous Analyst , appears to be on track. As a result we have made only cosmetic changes to our forecasts. Yet although we anticipate a soft outlook for commercial …
19th May 2016
Brexit worries have been driving sterling lower so far this year. Accordingly, a vote to “remain” in June’s EU referendum should see the pound rebound. But we think any strength is unlikely to be sustained, as monetary policy tightens even faster in the …
18th May 2016
The pace of job creation improved in March, but was nevertheless low by recent standards. That said, in big picture terms, with vacancies still high and job creation driven by full-time positions, occupier demand looks solid. … UK Commercial Property …
Economic theory suggests that the increased transaction costs stemming from the recent changes to the stamp duty regime should be fully and quickly reflected in lower capital values. March’s widespread falls in the IPD indices suggest that, while perhaps …
12th May 2016
London’s active office development pipeline has returned to past peaks, leaving the market vulnerable to an economic downturn. But so close to the EU referendum, we think that it is a sign that growing numbers agree with us that London and the UK will …
11th May 2016
Commercial property deal-making dipped modestly in April. However, the data gave further signs of improving liquidity, and strong overseas demand for UK assets. Nevertheless, with values looking stretched it is hard to envisage a strong rebound in …
10th May 2016
Today’s commercial construction PMI data provided further evidence to expect a slowdown in rental value growth during 2016. However, for now, today’s data give no indication that rents are due to move in reverse. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
4th May 2016
Net lending to the property sector picked up March. However, with traditional lenders’ exposure to the sector simply stabilising and riskier development lending still falling, it is hard to argue that traditional lenders are throwing caution to the wind. …
29th April 2016
The RICS Commercial Property Survey reported that occupier and investor demand moderated but remained positive in the first quarter. That said, the headline figures masked some sectoral variation; occupier market conditions seem healthier in the …
28th April 2016
With investment activity muted, yields approaching their floor, and rental value growth slowing, capital value growth will continue to moderate. That said, healthy economic conditions and loose monetary policy will probably help prevent a significant hit …
25th April 2016
Despite a fall in the pace of construction activity in the first quarter, workload balances in the commercial sector are above the survey’s average. That said, forward-looking indicators, suggest that skill shortages and weaker demand could hold back …
20th April 2016
As the slack in the labour market has fallen substantially, it is perhaps not surprising that job creation has slowed. And for now the data do not point to a turning point in the rental market, but rather to a slower rate of occupier demand growth. … …
Over the next few years, we expect high rents and elevated valuations to act as an increasing drag on capital values for the Central London retail market. That said, structural change in the retail sector should underpin demand ensuring that capital …
18th April 2016
As financial market volatility subsided, commercial property investment activity picked up in March. The latest data point tentatively to improving liquidity, but not to any rise in risk aversion. In the absence of further financial market stress, the …
14th April 2016
Lenders reported a small drop in credit availability to the residential sector in the first quarter of 2016, although they expect this to be temporary. Similarly, lenders are also displaying a degree of short-term caution in the commercial sector. … Bank …
13th April 2016
Our forecasts envisage that shopping centre rental growth will average less than 2%p.a. in 2016 and 2017. But those relatively subdued figures disguise a rather brighter outlook for prime shopping centres, which should deliver average rates of rental …
7th April 2016
Today’s commercial construction PMI data are consistent with our view that all-property rental growth is likely to slow during the remainder of 2016. However, itgives no indication that a rental correction is imminent. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
4th April 2016
March’s Colliers/REC survey signalled that the survey’s respondents have become more cautious since December. And while we are in broad agreement about the direction of rental value growth, we think that yields will fall a little further this year, …
31st March 2016
Net lending to the property sector rose in February. Despite the sharp increase in net loans to standing investments, riskier development lending fell once more. That, together with the fact that banks and building societies’ exposure to the sector has …
Speculative industrial development rose significantly in 2015. But that needs to be balanced against healthy demand, low vacancy rates and limits to future pipelines. In turn, we expect all-industrial rental growth to average roughly 2%p.a. between 2016 …
24th March 2016
The economic indicators provided mixed messages this month. On the one hand, job creation is still healthy, inflation is low, nominal wage growth edged up and retail sales strengthened. Sentiment surveys, however, were less positive perhaps reflecting …
With the unemployment rate already low, it is perhaps unsurprising that the pace of job creation slowed in January. However, the picture is still supportive for occupier demand as high job vacancies suggest that employment should continue to rise for the …
16th March 2016
Hitting a 58-month low, investment activity surprised on the downside in February. While that could be signalling an imminent turning point for capital values, such an outcome does not seem consistent with the still-positive macroeconomic backdrop. …
14th March 2016
Property investment activity in February was weak. This may partially reflect fears about Brexit, but it is also in line with the expected moderation in activity from the very high levels seen in 2015 amid signs that the market is looking a little …
11th March 2016
An out vote in June’s EU referendum could trigger a sharp slide in sterling. But while that might push up prices, it is unlikely to raise interest rates or bond yields to levels that would prove disastrous for commercial property. Nor, to date, is there …
9th March 2016
By the end of 2015, at just under 50bps, the spread between leisure and all-retail yields was lower than at any point since 2007. With less exposure to structural oversupply risks than retail assets, and healthy occupier demand prospects, we expect the …
8th March 2016
Commercial construction activity in February fell for a second consecutive month. However, we think that recent weakness reflects some degree of normalisation, after a particularly strong fourth quarter, and is unlikely to result in a contraction in …
2nd March 2016
