Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
The incoming Trump administration is threatening to put new tariffs on European exports. In our view, given their limited macroeconomic impact, they will not be a game-changer for commercial property. But in some sectors, notably industrial and, within …
18th December 2024
Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back the outlook for returns could be a lot more …
11th December 2024
A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that interest rates will be the key driver of returns next …
9th December 2024
Jump in commercial activity supports a rise in the headline balance The headline CIPS construction PMI increased to 55.2 in November, from 54.3 in October, indicating an expansion of construction activity. The rise was entirely driven by the commercial …
5th December 2024
Net lending to property on a firm upward trend Net lending to property totalled £1.16bn in October, marking the third consecutive month of net lending exceeding £1bn. Indeed, at £3.93bn in the three months to October, lending was at its highest since May …
29th November 2024
We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. What are Trump’s motives for threatening tariffs and will he follow through? Trump has spoken about using …
This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for European commercial property. This Update outlines our thoughts on some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the likely winners in …
28th November 2024
The latest IPF Consensus Survey was broadly unchanged from the previous forecast round. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be 7.7% p.a. over 2024-28, up from 7.6% p.a. previously. That contrasts to downward revisions in our forecasts, …
27th November 2024
President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the countries targeted – Canada, Mexico and China – to head …
26th November 2024
We discussed the global impact of higher tariffs in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 26th November. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use …
25th November 2024
Overview – The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over property yields currently narrow, that implies …
22nd November 2024
It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent events – the election of Donald Trump and the recent UK …
14th November 2024
This dashboard shows our latest UK commercial property forecasts. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or table. If you would like …
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24) …
7th November 2024
Contraction in housing activity drags headline construction PMI down After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. A rebound in long-term …
6th November 2024
We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest rates and property yields, the latter are likely to …
31st October 2024
The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down. That highlights that the road to recovery for commercial …
Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver? Which economies and markets offer the best opportunities? And what could go wrong with …
30th October 2024
Net lending to property sees another decent rise Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month. Lending to standing assets was responsible for all of that total, with net lending to development seeing …
29th October 2024
Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
24th October 2024
The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting. However, property equities have been boosted by the …
22nd October 2024
Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with the indicators pointing to annual price growth …
16th October 2024
In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and floorspace and financial vacancy rates has widened in …
10th October 2024
On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted …
7th October 2024
Construction activity rebounds to 2½ year high The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home construction …
4th October 2024
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) …
2nd October 2024
Net lending to property sees further increase as investment recovers Net lending to property reached £1.26bn in August, up from £520m the previous month. While lending to standing assets was responsible for the lion’s share of the increase, lending for …
30th September 2024
The leisure sector is yet to show signs of recovery from the cost-of-living crisis, in part because still-cautious households are prioritising buying goods rather than expensive leisure services. But a relatively large squeeze on higher-earning …
26th September 2024
Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger rental growth the residential sector will …
19th September 2024
Clients may also be interested in a recent podcast on 'Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery'. See here . We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a …
18th September 2024
By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed legislation. That said, an apparent ‘win-win’ ability for …
13th September 2024
Our rental growth forecasts for the industrial and retail sectors are notably above the consensus, particularly over the next couple of years. That primarily reflects our relatively optimistic forecasts for GDP growth, where a recovery in consumer …
10th September 2024
The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail subsectors over 2024-28 saw significant upgrades, with …
6th September 2024
Construction activity continues to expand The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, the decline was driven by the volatile civil engineering …
5th September 2024
Net lending continues to recover gradually Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in lending …
30th August 2024
City offices have underperformed their West End neighbours by a wide margin since 2022. More encouraging recent data have led us to revise up our City rental projections, but we still expect stronger gains in the West End over the forecast horizon. …
28th August 2024
Overview – Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one. Admittedly, we expect rental growth will be a …
22nd August 2024
Commercial property investment is on track to hit our forecast for a rise of 20% this year, helped by a substantial rise in retail transactions. A decent rental growth outlook coupled with attractive valuations, particularly for shopping centres, is …
14th August 2024
7th August 2024
While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three markets alongside structurally higher long-term rates, …
6th August 2024
Construction activity rebounds, helped by housing The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded in July, more than reversing the small fall in June to reach 55.3, the highest reading since May 2022. That rise was driven by the housing component, with the …
The impact of the cost-of-living crisis, which has been weighing on London industrial take-up, has a bit further to run. But London is well-positioned to benefit from the rise in consumer spending we expect from 2025. Coupled with supply constraints, …
5th August 2024
We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more activity than expected since the pandemic. And with office …
1st August 2024
At the end of the pandemic, there was a view that remote working would drive a wedge between CBD and other submarket rents. The evidence of this remains uneven. But in some cities, notably Paris and London, a shift to central locations may have helped …
31st July 2024
We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00% as investors anticipate. That explains why we think …
Net lending to property picks up as outlook stabilises Net lending to property increased for the third month in a row in June, and the rise of £1.31bn was the largest since the end of 2021. In line with last month the gain was entirely due to a rise in …
29th July 2024
The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the recovery will be modest by past standards with values only …
25th July 2024
Supermarkets struggled in 2023, as falling food sales volumes hit profits and rental growth. But the future looks brighter. As food price inflation has fallen supermarket profits have recovered and the past surge in food sales values points to stronger …
24th July 2024
Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a narrowing in the premium on UK over French property in recent …
18th July 2024
Yields look to have topped out in most sectors and alongside solid rental growth that means capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with no yield compression in sight the recovery will be weak by past standards, not helped by a struggling …
17th July 2024
