Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024) …
21st November 2024
The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are brighter. We think investment will rise 25% y/y as interest …
20th November 2024
The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property valuations and means property yields could fall by more in …
19th November 2024
It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent events – the election of Donald Trump and the recent UK …
14th November 2024
The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less pessimistic than most about the extent of the slowdown. …
Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will the sector continue to deliver? Join our Commercial Real Estate team for a special online briefing all about the …
8th November 2024
31st October 2024
Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver? Which economies and markets offer the best opportunities? And what could go wrong with …
30th October 2024
Softer rental prospects, less scope for yields to fall and lower income returns look set to weigh on French residential property returns compared to Germany, the UK and the US in the coming years. This Update uses a similar methodology to our recent Focus …
29th October 2024
There is growing concern about how the green transition may create stranded real estate assets, impacting negatively on both lenders and investors. We can get some idea of the scale of the problem in Dutch markets where EPC targets have been more …
23rd October 2024
Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the residential sector mean it remains a compelling candidate for …
The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting. However, property equities have been boosted by the …
22nd October 2024
Dutch prime logistics rent growth is set to be among the highest in the region over the next few years. That reflects both strong prospects for leasing, thanks to a bright economic outlook and greater e-commerce penetration, and relatively tight supply. …
17th October 2024
Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels in Barcelona and stronger domestic spending prospects …
10th October 2024
On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted …
7th October 2024
Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and slightly more favourable demand drivers. That said, there …
3rd October 2024
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) …
2nd October 2024
Tight supply conditions have boosted German prime logistics rents despite weak occupier demand. This looks set to continue over the next year or two given completions pipelines for the German markets are among the tightest in Europe. However, weak …
26th September 2024
After two disappointing years, recent data suggest Europe’s commercial real estate market is stabilising. But will recovery follow and how strong will it be? Join our 20-minute online session on Wednesday 25th September at 10:00 BST as we discuss the …
23rd September 2024
Clients may also be interested in a recent podcast on 'Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery'. See here . We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a …
18th September 2024
17th September 2024
Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while downsizing and affordability concerns are rising, we think …
11th September 2024
The most recent European industrial take-up figures were slightly more encouraging. We expect activity will continue to slowly improve over the next couple of years, supported by the consumer recovery and increasing online penetration, though no return to …
5th September 2024
Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view that online competition will be less of a drag on southern …
3rd September 2024
Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26. While we still expect rental growth to slow, our …
29th August 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024) …
23rd August 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) …
20th August 2024
Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag the euro-zone average, especially in Frankfurt given the …
15th August 2024
European office occupier surveys reveal that office attendance and utilisation has continued to rise over the past year and that it could still improve a bit further. However, despite the rise in attendance, office vacancy has continued to climb and is …
12th August 2024
The Q2 rise in euro-zone investment marks the start of the recovery, but one that will be weak and uneven across markets. Economic and political concerns means investment in Germany and France is likely to lag, while the faster pick-up to date in Italy …
7th August 2024
While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three markets alongside structurally higher long-term rates, …
6th August 2024
We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more activity than expected since the pandemic. And with office …
1st August 2024
At the end of the pandemic, there was a view that remote working would drive a wedge between CBD and other submarket rents. The evidence of this remains uneven. But in some cities, notably Paris and London, a shift to central locations may have helped …
31st July 2024
Our team have recorded a special podcast episode all about the big themes in commercial real estate. The 12-minute episode showcases our enhanced coverage which provides a more global, comparative view of how the key markets we forecast are performing, …
25th July 2024
Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for credit and origination will both pick up over the …
23rd July 2024
Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a narrowing in the premium on UK over French property in recent …
18th July 2024
The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will rumble on as large debt maturities loom, but the risk …
11th July 2024
The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think US economic outperformance will translate into …
8th July 2024
Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while the major northern ports have seen further falls. With …
4th July 2024
This chartpack is a new addition to our suite of commercial property analysis, which pulls together our views across the three regions we forecast and provides important context for investors. The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a …
3rd July 2024
News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been backed by some of the worst-performing assets across …
27th June 2024
A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to around the euro-zone average in the coming years. Prime …
We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany (see here ), however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin . Munich prime rent growth has been among the strongest …
25th June 2024
Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the outlook for property valuations and in turn we now expect …
20th June 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive Europe Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, …
13th June 2024
Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets. As we recently highlighted , there were tentative signs that Europe …
6th June 2024
While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom. The stabilisation in German prime all-property yields in Q1 has led some to …
29th May 2024
While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes to its relatively insulated lending market in this …
28th May 2024
Spanish industrial rent growth beat expectations in Q1 this year, outpacing rises elsewhere in the euro-zone. However, this was mainly due to Barcelona, where we have raised our prime rent forecast. Madrid rent gains were more sluggish and this trend is …
24th May 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024) …
22nd May 2024
