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With ample supply and lower prices of competing vegetable oils, we expect the price of palm oil to fall further this year. … Palm oil price to continue …
3rd April 2015
We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consumers in China, the US and Europe continue to move away from coal power. … No light at the end of the tunnel for coal …
The aluminium market appears to be undergoing a fundamental shift this year with falling stocks and lower price premiums. The incentive for investors to hold aluminium stocks is waning. In this Metals & Mining Watch we discuss the implications of these …
The ebb and flow of sentiment towards the US currency continues to be a key driver of commodity markets and especially gold and silver, keeping prices sensitive to the latest US economic data and comments from the Fed. However, the fundamentals of …
A fall in US output and higher demand from refineries helped to reduce the amount of oil flowing into storage last week. But stocks are still rising. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
2nd April 2015
USDA data on grain and soybean stocks continue to indicate a market brimming with supplies. We remain of the view that corn, wheat and soybean prices will fall further this year. … Ample US grain and soybean stocks to push prices …
We expect European natural gas prices to fall this year as greater supply and the impact of lower oil prices more than offset higher demand. … European gas prices heading back …
1st April 2015
Despite the likelihood of higher US interest rates this year, demand prospects and mortgage affordability should continue to support higher housing starts, lifting the price of lumber. … Lumber price to rise despite higher interest …
27th March 2015
A variety of factors have lifted commodity prices this past week. Renewed Middle East fears following events in Yemen boosted oil and gold. Copper prices continued their gradual recovery, helped by supply disruption in Chile and signs of a seasonal …
Silver has out-performed gold this year during periods when the prices of both have been rising, as usual, but it has also held on to more of its gains when both have struggled. This supports our relatively bullish view on the outlook for silver prices …
Even with cautious demand estimates, the deficit in the zinc market will deepen this year. As such, we expect zinc prices to rise and to outperform many of the other metals. … Zinc to continue to …
The recent developments in Yemen have caused oil prices to jump on fears of disruption to supplies. However we think that the impact on production should be minimal and even in the unlikely event of transport routes being affected, it should only add …
26th March 2015
Despite the weak Brazilian real putting downward pressure on the price of arabica coffee, with the market tightening we think that the price will move higher. … Tighter market to push coffee prices …
The widening of the Brent – WTI spread has captured headlines again recently. In this Energy Watch we explain why the price of WTI has been lagging Brent and examine the outlook for the price of the traditional US benchmark. … A year of two …
We expect nickel demand to pick up this year supported by a rebound in global stainless steel output. With refined nickel production in China likely to fall owing to problems with sourcing ore and profitability, the nickel market will slip into deficit …
Oil and gasoline stocks continued to diverge last week as drivers took further advantage of low fuel prices. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
25th March 2015
The world price of sugar has fallen to a six-year low. While recent weakness can be attributed to the fall in the value of the Brazilian real and a decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies, the fundamental problem facing the market is a global …
24th March 2015
The ongoing surge in iron ore supply had been expected, but perhaps what has taken markets by surprise is the increasing likelihood that demand could falter, even at these low prices. We think prices will have to fall further to force supply cuts. … …
Today’s disappointing PMI readings from China could have a silver lining for commodities: the data are not bad enough to justify market fears of an imminent “hard landing”, but they may prompt additional policy easing just in case. Meanwhile, the …
Even though the world cotton market is likely to move into deficit this coming year, huge global stocks and increased competitiveness of synthetic fibres should drag the price of cotton lower. … Cotton price to fall despite market moving into …
20th March 2015
Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported commodity prices, especially silver, which outperformed …
World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor in lower Chinese output this year. … Global Steel …
A relatively mild winter, at least across most of the country, and a continued increase in production have allowed gas stocks to rebuild and prices to fall. However, a fall in the number rigs drilling for gas and an increase in demand should put upward …
It was a poor month for agricultural commodity markets as the bear that is the US dollar continues to put downward pressure on prices. Coffee and sugar prices in particular fared poorly as the Brazilian real fell to its lowest level against the US …
19th March 2015
Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial metals. … Stronger dollar …
The gains in commodity prices after yesterday’s dovish statement could soon be more than reversed if the Fed presses ahead and raises rates earlier than the markets now expect, especially if the dollar climbs further. Nonetheless, our view remains that US …
A strong outlook for the global auto market, given loose credit conditions, low oil prices and rising incomes in developing countries, should boost lead demand this year. With low stocks and only limited supply growth, we expect lead prices to recover …
18th March 2015
The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect the initial reaction to the approach of the first hike …
A jump in US crude imports helped propel oil stocks to yet another record high last week. However, gasoline stocks appear to have peaked, at least for now. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
The renewed decline in the price of the traditional US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to a six-year low of $43 per barrel, overstates the weakness in global oil prices. Other benchmarks are as much as $10 higher than WTI and still above …
17th March 2015
The growth rate of China’s economy has already halved since 2007, from over 14% to around 7%. What’s more, this slowdown has been the main reason why the prices of many commodities have performed so poorly since 2011. But now that these adjustments have …
16th March 2015
Another small fall in OPEC’s production still leaves a large supply glut in the market. It won’t be until demand picks up in the second half of this year that the market may rebalance. … OPEC production fall only …
The large fall in weekly soybean export sales suggests that the strong dollar is starting to reduce the competitiveness of US exporters. And with a large Brazilian harvest underway, we think the price of soybeans will fall. … Strong dollar to put …
Investor sentiment towards copper has been negative since late 2014. While some of copper’s recent price resilience probably has to do with short-covering, there are tentative signs that sentiment is starting to turn. This is an additional factor …
Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US benchmark WTI, were additionally pressured by ample US stocks …
13th March 2015
With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the gold price, currently around $1,150 per ounce, could …
It has been a relatively quiet month in energy markets, at least compared to the last few. Oil prices have mostly stabilised although they have dipped a little recently. Meanwhile, milder winter weather meant that most natural gas and coal benchmark …
12th March 2015
Agricultural commodities are less sensitive to the economic cycle than other commodities such as oil and copper, mainly because, in the short term, income and price elasticities for essential foodstuffs are low. Nevertheless, prevailing macroeconomic …
The latest data from the EIA suggest that the surge in gasoline stocks may have run its course as demand picks up, but stocks of crude oil are likely to continue to rise. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
11th March 2015
Although the price of corn has been boosted by a downward revision to estimated global year-end stock levels, this isn’t enough to alter the underlying market situation. We continue to expect the price to end the year lower. … Corn stocks revised down, …
Factors unrelated to physical demand continue to drive stock movements. However, a lull in activity around Chinese new year was also an issue in February. We expect the rise in copper stocks to be reversed later in the year as supply disappoints. … Copper …
Investor enthusiasm for agricultural commodities waned further over the lastmonth. Indeed, for eight of the commodities we cover and have Commitment ofTraders data, five saw a fall in net-long non-commercial positions. Moreover,the total number of …
We expect US oil production to peak in the middle of this year as the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells is used up. This should help support oil prices, especially in the US, in the second half of this year. … How do lower rig counts affect oil …
10th March 2015
The prospect of further gains for the US currency remains a major headwind for commodity prices. However, the dollar has already appreciated a long way and, if it continues to climb, much would still depend on the reasons why. If dollar appreciation …
We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual commodities will still be far more important for prices than …
9th March 2015
China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. … China’s commodity import data still distorted by …
Most commodity prices fell this week even before the strong US payrolls data raised expectations of early Fed tightening and further dollar strength. While recognising that both developments have negative implications for commodity prices, the robust US …
6th March 2015
US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year, but we expect a modest rebound in 2016 as the market …
We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand from other emerging markets and by falling coal …
5th March 2015
