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Commodity price indices have risen in the last month, encouraged by the rally in oil prices. Although we are positive on the medium-term outlook for industrial commodity prices, we would caution that some markets may have risen too far, too quickly. …
17th May 2016
Precious metals prices rallied last month, flattered by the recent US dollar weakness. Investors in the futures market added to their net-long positions, but the recent mixed news on the health of the Chinese and US economies dulled sentiment towards the …
The continued recovery in the price of crude oil has lifted Brent close to $50 per barrel, prompting a wave of positive headlines and upward revisions to analysts’ forecasts. However, for now we are leaving our end-2016 projections for both Brent and WTI …
16th May 2016
Although OPEC production rose last month, the increase was contained by numerous supply disruptions. This suggests that, once the outages have been resolved, output will grow more strongly, as producers try to make up for the recent production shortfall. …
13th May 2016
The stronger US dollar and renewed concerns about the robustness of the credit-led recovery in China’s economy weighed on metals prices this week. However, oil benefited from the disruptions to supply from Canada and Nigeria, while the prices of grains …
In this new monthly publication, we intend to focus on key developments in agricultural commodities as well as draw on the more in-depth analysis from our Energy and Metals services. This month, we discuss the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand …
We expect the recent under-performance of copper prices relative to oil to be reversed over the remainder of the year. Oil prices have been boosted by supply outages which should prove temporary, while further gains are likely to be capped by the …
In its Q1 Global Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council (WGC) described a strong quarter for gold demand. A sharp recovery in investor sentiment more than offset a fall in jewellery demand from key consumers. Looking ahead, we …
12th May 2016
We are forecasting that the price of Brent Crude will reach $60 per barrel by the end of next year, but there are several reasons why we do not expect European natural gas prices to experience a similar recovery. In fact, we expect some divergence between …
South Africa’s PGMs production rebounded in March, having fallen sharply in the first two months of the year, suggesting that mining firms have been enticed to raise output in response to higher prices. Meanwhile, a renewed depreciation of the rand is …
A sharp increase in demand for crude from refineries helped to reduce the amount of crude in storage last week. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
11th May 2016
Since the start of 2016, stocks of all the LME metals have fallen, while SHFE inventories of the same metals have risen. We think this trend reflects two main factors. First, optimism that physical demand in China will pick up over the course of this …
Electric vehicles have been the subject of much publicity recently, leading some commentators to question the future of PGMs in the auto industry. While we recognise the growing importance of electric vehicles in the global auto mix, we think that there …
10th May 2016
Disruptions to oil output around the world have put the brakes on the slide in oil prices since the beginning of this month. However, these production outages should only be temporary. When output is resumed over the next few months, prices could weaken …
The price of copper has not risen by as much as the prices of other metals in recent months. But we think the underlying outlook for demand is strong and that there are risks on the supply side. As such, we expect copper to outperform its peers in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks’ gold demand held up well in Q1 …
9th May 2016
The sharp year-on-year decline in China’s import values in April has attracted some negative headlines but largely reflects distortions around the timing of the Lunar New Year and the slump in commodity prices a year earlier. In contrast, the volume data …
For the most part, commodity prices fell this week. This was not too surprising as the prices of many commodities, particularly the more industrial ones, appeared to have moved ahead of fundamentals. The slightly softer April PMI data out of China set the …
6th May 2016
Precious metals prices rallied in April, flattered by the recent dollar weakness. We have been positive on the outlook for precious metals since the start of the year owing to the prospect of lower supply and resilient demand. So far we have been proved …
The recent rally in oil prices has been stronger than even we had anticipated. However, prices have already fallen back slightly from their recent peak and we would not be surprised to see some further pull-backs in the coming weeks and months, perhaps …
5th May 2016
The prices of most industrial metals rose in April, although prices have eased back in the last week. A weaker US dollar, as market expectations of US interest rate rises were scaled back, was a key factor supporting metals prices. Encouraging March …
The recent rally in platinum group metals (PGM) prices has been stronger than we had anticipated and may not be sustainable. Indeed, prices have already retraced slightly from their recent peak of a few days ago and we would not be surprised to see some …
4th May 2016
US crude stocks rose again last week despite US oil production experiencing its largest weekly decline this year, and a rise in inputs to refineries. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
Commodity prices rose again in April on a combination of persistent weakness in the US dollar and investor optimism about a recovery in Chinese demand. While our long-held view has been that industrial commodity prices, in particular, would recover this …
3rd May 2016
Oil prices continued to rally in April as sentiment improved further on the back of hopes that the oil market will rebalance later in the year. Indeed, better economic data out of China supported the prices of most energy commodities. A slight weakening …
29th April 2016
Commodities rallied further in the past week, notably oil, helped by positive investor sentiment and further dollar weakness. Gold and (particularly) silver were again among the biggest gainers, boosted by rising inflation expectations and, in the case of …
The recent rebounds in many commodity prices have been stronger than even we had anticipated and may be premature. We would not therefore be surprised – or that worried – to see some temporary pull-backs in the coming months, notably for oil, perhaps …
US crude stocks rose again last week despite a slump in net-imports and another small decline in US oil production. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
27th April 2016
The large speculative element in the recent rally in iron ore prices suggests that prices are especially vulnerable to any waning in the enthusiasm of Chinese investors, perhaps prompted by a further tightening in trading curbs or fresh evidence that the …
In other publications we have addressed at length how falling mine supply should boost platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. But this is only part of the story. Developments on the demand side are equally important. In this Precious Metals Watch we look …
26th April 2016
In recent years, zinc has periodically been a favourite of investors, based on the premise of falling supply as a result of mine closures. However, earlier price rallies have fizzled out, primarily because demand has disappointed and the supply shortfall …
Gold imports by both China and India slumped in the first quarter. While imports have been undeniably weak so far in 2016, we expect buying to pick up later in the year in part due to the release of pent-up demand in India, when the strikes finally …
The prices of almost all commodities have risen this week, fuelled by the ongoing improvement in investor sentiment and renewed weakness in the US dollar. The rally in oil prices was perhaps somewhat surprising given the failure of major producers to …
22nd April 2016
The detailed Chinese import data for March indicate that import demand picked up for some agricultural commodities in the first quarter of the year. Yet imports of some other commodities continued their downward trend. … A mixed bag for Chinese …
21st April 2016
Looking beyond the headlines from the failed deal in Doha over the weekend there are two interesting points which are worth considering. First, the suggestion that Saudi Arabia could turn on the taps if there was not an agreement to freeze output and, …
China’s metals imports remained high in March, reflecting the general optimism about a pick-up in demand. However, recent price rises and signs of stockpiling in China suggest that import growth may slow in coming months. … A strong first quarter for …
China’s imports of palladium and platinum were up strongly in the first quarter as the tax break on small cars and relatively low prices stimulated demand for PGMs in the local market. Looking ahead, we expect imports of palladium to continue to be buoyed …
US crude oil inventories rose last week despite a jump in inputs to refineries, while gasoline stocks were down slightly. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
20th April 2016
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output grew by 0.7% y/y in March, although it was down on the same quarter a year earlier. … Global Aluminium Production …
China’s decision to scrap its export subsidy programme will do little to help overcome huge surpluses of aluminium and steel, or to allay concerns about it dumping excess production on world markets, despite whatever politically-symbolic significance the …
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released today, show that global steel output fell by 0.5% year on year in March, up from declines of 3.3% and 7.1% in January and February respectively. That said, global steel output still fell by 3.6% y/y in Q1. … …
After the combined net-short position in eight of the main agriculturals we cover rose to a record level at the start of March, investor confidence has rebounded. Indeed, a weaker US dollar and more recent weather-related concerns for a number of …
Having wobbled in late March, most commodity prices have rebounded of late. Stronger economic data for March out of China has assuaged some concerns about demand and more than offset the negative impact of a lack of an agreement between major oil …
19th April 2016
After lagging behind for the past year, the price of silver is finally catching up with that of gold, moving towards our year-end forecast of $19.5 per ounce. Its higher industrial profile, coupled with tightening mine supply, should see silver outperform …
The failure of Sunday’s meeting in Doha to freeze oil production has further undermined the credibility of OPEC. But it has very little impact on our outlook for supply over the rest of the year. We still expect the market to rebalance due to falling …
18th April 2016
Commodity prices have generally risen over the past week, despite some appreciation of the US dollar, on a combination of strong Chinese economic data and optimism that an output freeze will be agreed at the gathering of oil producers in Doha this Sunday …
15th April 2016
First-quarter Chinese economic data suggest a cyclical rebound is underway, driven by state-sector spending. The data justify some of the recent strength in commodity prices and underpin our forecast that metals prices, in particular, will end the year …
The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But as output returns to normal, we think that the price will fall over the second half of the year. … Support for the price of cocoa should fade later …
Tightening mine supply is one of several factors behind our positive view on precious metals prices this year. Admittedly, for some metals like gold, mine production represents only a small fraction of the available metal. However, miners are finally …
