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The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this year, which in turn would keep oil prices over $100 per …
4th May 2022
The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major advanced and emerging economies . While supply constraints …
3rd May 2022
Overview – The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think energy prices will remain historically high …
29th April 2022
Russia’s monopoly exporter of natural gas, Gazprom, suspended gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria this week because they refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles . There is some confusion about whether the process by which Russia demands rubles to be …
Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas prices historically high for months to come. The move also …
27th April 2022
It has been an unusually quiet week for commodities, with less volatility than we have come to expect . The war in Ukraine continues to provide possible stresses for supply but, for now at least, it seems the market focus is shifting to demand as well, …
22nd April 2022
High energy costs keep squeeze on steel production Global steel production fell in y/y terms in March, as largest producer China recorded a decline for the third consecutive month this year. Looking ahead, we expect high energy costs to act as a …
Iron ore prices have rocketed by close to 30% since the start of 2022 on supply fears. Yet, we expect cooler economic activity in China to weigh on iron ore demand, causing prices to fall by end-year. Russia and Ukraine are exporters of iron ore , and …
21st April 2022
A cooling US housing market will weigh on lumber prices, despite disruption to imports from Canada. We expect the lumber price to continue its downward trend, but to remain well above its 10-year average . US lumber prices have been particularly volatile …
US commercial crude oil stocks look set to recover this year Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil …
20th April 2022
High power costs keep a lid on aluminium output. Global aluminium output fell by 1.5% y/y in March with high power costs keeping a lid on production growth. Looking ahead, we expect regions where energy prices are more manageable to continue to increase …
The war in Ukraine continued to dominate headlines, and commodity price movements, this week as peace talks fell apart and sent energy prices up sharply . However, at the same time, there are further worrying signs of a downturn in China’s commodities …
14th April 2022
Strong demand for LNG exports should lead to a higher average price of US natural gas this year. But we expect prices to ease back in the coming months as demand falls over the summer and output stays high . The price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) has …
SPR releases to boost commercial stocks significantly in months ahead Crude stocks in commercial storage shot up last week, as the US government made more sales from its strategic reserve and refineries curbed output in the wake of weaker demand. With …
13th April 2022
The latest trade data out of China suggest that recent restrictions imposed to contain the surge in new cases of COVID-19 are hitting commodity demand hard. And we think it will remain weak in the months ahead as activity in the commodity-intensive …
Supply fears stemming from the war in Ukraine and risks to mine output in Latin America have pushed up the copper price. But we expect a recovery in supply and ongoing weakness in Chinese demand to send prices lower by year-end . The price of copper has …
12th April 2022
OPEC still dragging its heels OPEC oil production rose a little in March, but the group continues to underproduce. What’s more, its optimistic non-OPEC supply forecasts suggest that it has no intention of boosting output in the near term . The OPEC …
Last week, we suggested that the downside risks to prices were building, and these came to the fore in the past week with particularly hawkish US Fed minutes published on Wednesday and ongoing COVID-19 related lockdowns in China. The announcement of a …
8th April 2022
US commercial oil stocks unexpectedly rise, dragging prices down Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, …
6th April 2022
Overview – Commodity prices remain extremely volatile owing to the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine, and we doubt that they will find a clear direction anytime soon. However, assuming the war-related uncertainty begins to ease somewhat …
5th April 2022
Signs of weaker demand in China in the latest PMI data and the announcement that the US will sell off a large chunk of its strategic oil reserve suggest that the downside risks to commodity prices are building . Admittedly, while oil prices fell sharply …
1st April 2022
The war in Ukraine and high energy prices will keep industrial metal prices elevated for now. But once supply fears ease, the weakness in China’s demand will be exposed and will weigh on prices . Admittedly, all the current focus is on metals supply, but …
Ukraine’s grain exports will fall sharply in the 2022/23 season Grain prices should fall back to pre-war levels, although these are still historically high But in an extreme scenario, prices would stay much higher for longer Grains prices have skyrocketed …
31st March 2022
Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply shock . Commodity prices are naturally volatile for many …
High prices hitting demand; don’t rule out shale sector just yet Crude stocks fell again last week, as healthy profit margins appear to be driving an upturn in refinery activity. That said, high product prices are also taking their toll on consumer …
30th March 2022
The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might expect. However, the knock-on impact from higher …
The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely to lead to some degree of demand destruction. And …
29th March 2022
We expect European steel prices to remain elevated this year given sharply higher production costs and disruption caused by lower imports from Russia and Ukraine. That said, prices should ease back from current highs on the back of subdued demand and some …
28th March 2022
Taking the lead from energy, most commodity prices rose this week as hopes of an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine faded and Western leaders met to consider further sanctions on Russia . Meanwhile, Putin’s announcement that natural gas purchases could only be …
25th March 2022
Record high fuel prices to constrain US oil demand US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week, driven by a decrease in net imports and greater refinery inputs. Demand also inched higher, but we suspect high prices will limit further gains . In its …
23rd March 2022
We expect Russia’s coal and gas exports to fall this year, keeping prices high But Russia’s energy exports could fall by much more under a Western embargo In this extreme scenario, there would be limited supply elsewhere to compensate In this Energy Watch …
Weaker China demand and high energy costs to drag on steel output Global steel production fell in y/y terms in February, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. Our expectation is that high energy costs and softer construction-led demand growth in …
22nd March 2022
Soaring energy costs to weigh on supply for some time High power prices in Europe continued to cause production curtailment in February but there were signs of a rebound in China’s production. Looking ahead, we expect supply to remain constrained for now …
21st March 2022
Commodity prices remained extremely volatile this week . After all the supply fears associated with the war on Ukraine, a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China raised concern about both demand and supply given widespread lockdowns in key industrial …
18th March 2022
High prices likely to put a floor under crude stocks US commercial crude stocks rose last week but remained historically low for the time of the year. Demand took a tumble and will probably struggle to rise much further with gasoline prices so high. In …
16th March 2022
OPEC oil production still falling short Although OPEC oil production rose in February, it remained well below target. And while OPEC left its 2022 oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged, it hinted at revisions due to “geopolitical turmoil”. The OPEC …
15th March 2022
The seemingly unstoppable rise in commodity prices gave way to sharp corrections this week, though the big picture is that prices remain extremely elevated . We suspect commodity prices will continue to whipsaw around in the weeks ahead, as markets move …
11th March 2022
Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this direction is now more likely than not. While the Kingdom …
Even if the West bans crude imports from Russia entirely, the Iranian experience suggests that there will still be ways for Russia to get its oil onto global markets. But any workarounds would take time to translate into a pick-up in exports, and at best …
The high cost of energy will continue to support metals prices due to the energy-intensive nature of metal refining. If energy prices continue to climb and power rationing is introduced, we expect metal refiners to be forced to cut production, choking …
Russia’s oil production is set to decline over the course of this year under the weight of Western sanctions, but the scale of the decline will depend on the extent of the sanctions. In this Update , we weigh up how a complete Western ban on imports of …
10th March 2022
Panic buying and flatlining production to send stocks even lower Crude stocks in the US continued to fall last week and are now at a multi-year low for this time of year. The sharp drop in product stocks points to panic buying by consumers, while domestic …
9th March 2022
While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. The centrepiece of the European Commission’s “REPowerEU” package, …
We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high levels into next year. The Russian economy would …
7th March 2022
The latest trade data show that China’s energy imports contracted in the first two months of the year in y/y terms. And even if the West were to cut off Russian energy imports altogether, we doubt that China would ramp up its imports of energy from Russia …
Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities . (At the end of this Weekly Wrap , we publish forecasts in a …
4th March 2022
The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts . Palladium prices have rocketed by almost 51% since …
US strategic oil reserves to fall further due to IEA-coordinated release US commercial oil stocks fell last week on the back of higher exports, lower imports and greater refinery use of crude oil. Strategic reserves also fell to their lowest since August …
2nd March 2022
As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will be an immediate increase in Iranian supply, but fears …
We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the extent to which the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) might …
1st March 2022
