Central and extreme scenarios for coal and natural gas

In this Energy Watch, we look at what the war in Ukraine means for the thermal coal and natural gas markets in 2022. Under our central scenario based on existing Western sanctions, we think Russian coal and gas exports will fall, but we suspect that the global coal market will be less affected than the gas market. Under our extreme scenario of the West completely banning Russian energy exports and/or Russia unilaterally halting its energy exports, there would be limited supply elsewhere to compensate.