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China steel output should fall some more The monthly fall in China’s steel production should continue over the next two months, but the outlook is a little brighter in 2024. Elsewhere, production rose in October, and India’s production in particular …
22nd November 2023
Supply stays strong Global aluminium production rose in October and set a monthly record. This is unlikely to be broken over the next few months as China’s output should fall as smelters curb output over winter. According to the International Aluminium …
20th November 2023
Further falls in global steel supply are likely Monthly global steel output in September fell in year-on-year terms for the first time in 2023, in large part due to a contraction in China’s production. With demand set to remain weak and low profitability …
24th October 2023
Robust supply growth, but it is mostly a China story After reaching a record high in August, global aluminium production eased back in September but remained strong. Given that demand growth is relatively subdued, the increase in global supply may only …
20th October 2023
Global steel production growth continues to struggle The slowdown in global steel production in August is consistent with our long-held view that slowing demand will weigh on production in the second half of this year. Weakening demand stems from slowing …
25th September 2023
A healthier picture of aluminium supply An increase in year-on-year production growth, coupled with upward revisions to the back data, means that global aluminium supply is much stronger than previously thought. Production reached a record high in August …
20th September 2023
Global steel production continues to stagnate Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will soften as …
22nd August 2023
Global aluminium supply slides into contraction Global aluminium production growth slowed for the seventh consecutive month and dipped into contractionary territory in July on the back of weakness in China. We think production growth will stagnate as …
21st August 2023
Global growth in steel output stagnating Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply in other …
25th July 2023
Aluminium production remains strong but growth is softening Global aluminium production growth eased again in June, in a sign that smelters are responding to weak demand growth. We think that production growth will remain subdued over the next few months …
20th July 2023
Steel mills slamming the brakes on production Global steel production fell sharply in y/y terms in May. Against the backdrop of subdued demand and stringent supply caps in China, the supply outlook over the next few months appears bleak. According to the …
21st June 2023
Aluminium production growth could start to pick up soon If reports of a forthcoming easing of output restrictions in Yunnan province are accurate, then the ongoing slowdown in China’s aluminium production growth could come to an end soon. Much will also …
20th June 2023
US product demand remains resilient Oil prices surged on the back of this week’s report, which managed to successfully tear investors’ attention away from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. In isolation, there was little to suggest this was a …
1st June 2023
The strength in US product demand is unlikely to be sustained Commercial stocks slumped as imports fell sharply. Meanwhile, implied product demand rose, but we think the usual summer boost to demand may be more subdued this year as economic growth slows. …
24th May 2023
Commercial stocks build, prices likely to remain subdued Commercial stocks rose for a second consecutive week even as production fell and refinery utilisation picked up. Releases from strategic reserves supported stocks and are likely to continue to do so …
17th May 2023
Oil demand holding up, but prices likely to remain subdued Today’s stocks report showed a rise in commercial crude inventories last week, confounding analyst expectations of a drawdown. However, total stocks fell, which helps to explain why oil prices …
10th May 2023
Tentative signs of weaker demand Commercial stocks continued to fall last week despite lower refinery runs and higher net imports. On the products side, total demand eased back. Of course, one week's data are not sufficient to mark a turning point, but we …
3rd May 2023
Product demand proving solid, for now Commercial stocks fell last week as production and net imports declined. Meanwhile, product demand remains resilient, but we doubt oil demand can weather the mounting economic headwinds much longer. The EIA’s latest …
26th April 2023
Supply reviving, but the demand picture remains subdued There were clear signs of a pick-up in global steel production in March, led by China, but output in the EU also ticked up. However, the rise in supply is going hand in hand with increasing stocks. …
21st April 2023
Norsk Hydro strikes will weigh on European aluminium output Global production growth y/y slowed in March and came close to stalling. In fact, excluding China, global production growth was 0%. These latest data are consistent with our view that output …
20th April 2023
Crude production approaching peak Sharply higher refining activity and a rise in exports drove commercial crude stocks lower this week. Meanwhile, US production was stable. We think it will only rise a little further by the end of the year. The EIA’s …
19th April 2023
Crude exports drop by a record amount Commercial crude stocks rose last week, owing to a record weekly fall in exports and small amounts were sold from strategic reserves. Meanwhile, implied demand for key petroleum products remains healthy for now, but …
12th April 2023
SPR releases should support commercial stocks in the coming weeks The rebound in crude oil prices is already feeding into wholesale gasoline prices, but we don’t think the increase will be enough to derail demand, which is running at a healthy clip. …
5th April 2023
Demand holding up for now, but it may be on borrowed time Commercial crude stocks fell sharply this week as imports fell to a two-year low and refinery activity increased. Meanwhile, product demand continued to expand. As higher interest rates translate …
29th March 2023
Supply picture improving, but plenty of challenges remain There were a few positive signs in February’s steel production figures; output in China grew healthily and production in advanced economies (DMs) appears to have troughed. However, any rebound in …
23rd March 2023
Crude stocks rise again, but it’s the Fed that will move oil prices Commercial crude stocks rose slightly this week, although product stocks fell as domestic demand and exports both picked up. But all eyes are on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting later …
22nd March 2023
Stripping away calendar effects, global aluminium production increased slightly last month. We expect output to continue to grow steadily this year, mostly in response to rising demand in China. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), …
20th March 2023
Crude stocks rise, but all eyes are on the banks Commercial crude stocks rose this week, but product stocks fell. That said, the bigger picture remains one of subdued domestic demand, which we expect to remain the case for some time yet. After a dip in …
15th March 2023
Commercial crude stocks fell for the first time in nine weeks last week, while implied product demand dropped. We think oil demand will remain soft as higher interest rates drag on economic growth. The EIA’s weekly US Petroleum Status Report showed that …
8th March 2023
US crude exports could rise even further Commercial crude stocks rose only slightly this week but this was despite a jump in US crude exports to a new record. With US domestic fuel demand unlikely to surge anytime soon, crude exports should remain …
1st March 2023
Commercial crude oil stocks set to rise even further There was another strong rise in commercial crude stocks last week. With little prospect of any upturn in domestic demand anytime soon, commercial stocks should continue to rebound in the coming months. …
23rd February 2023
Global steel output remained depressed in January and is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming months. However, a rebound in China’s demand and lower power costs in Europe should prompt some recovery in supply later in the year. The World Steel …
22nd February 2023
Aluminium production to slowly increase this year Global aluminium production fell slightly in January compared to December, although the bigger picture is one of fairly steady production since the middle of last year. We expect production to respond to …
20th February 2023
Commercial crude oil stocks looking healthy Commercial crude stocks rose to their highest since June 2021 last week due to lower refinery activity. With crude demand likely to remain sluggish over the coming months, and the US government set to sell …
15th February 2023
Refinery activity to remain subdued this quarter Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, despite a rise in inputs to refineries. That said, refinery activity is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming weeks given ongoing maintenance and only …
8th February 2023
Slow refinery rebound continuing to boost commercial crude stocks Commercial crude stocks continued to climb last week as refinery activity remained in the doldrums and net imports rose. We believe that a recovery in refinery activity and higher demand …
1st February 2023
Global steel supply to remain subdued in early 2023 Global steel output slumped in December and fell sharply in 2022 as a whole. With demand likely to be weak, at least in the first half of 2023, we do not expect a marked rebound any time soon. The World …
31st January 2023
Clear signs of weakening product demand Even though the recovery in refinery activity stalled last week, petroleum product stocks rose amid weakening demand, which we expect to persist for a bit longer as the US economy slows further. The EIA’s weekly US …
25th January 2023
Aluminium production growth to struggle in 2023 Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2% in 2022 from 2.7% in 2021. We forecast that weaker output growth in China and another difficult year in Europe will lead to even softer growth this year. …
20th January 2023
Commercial crude stocks will continue marching upward Commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased this week. Weak refining activity and stable production helped stocks build. We expect that slower US economic activity over the next six months will …
19th January 2023
Commercial crude stocks surge and could have further to rise Commercial crude stocks surged last week at the fastest pace since February 2021, as net imports rose and disruption to refineries lingered from the recent cold weather disruption. Going …
11th January 2023
Hit to implied product demand from cold weather likely to be short-lived Commercial crude stocks rose last week due to refinery closures in the wake of the extremely cold weather. But this should be short-lived, with most refinery plants back online soon. …
5th January 2023
US demand looks set to hold up well, despite slower economic growth Commercial crude stocks rose last week owing to a rebound in net imports, which was largely the result of the reopening of the Keystone pipeline. More interesting was the jump in implied …
29th December 2022
Global steel supply well and truly in the doldrums Global steel output is now firmly in contractionary territory by any measure. With several headwinds unlikely to relent soon, it is likely that output will weaken even further from here. Figures released …
22nd December 2022
Flat US production will keep stocks low This week’s report showed a sizeable drop in commercial crude stocks as net imports fell sharply. With US production unlikely to rise by much and plans for strategic reserves to be refilled next year, crude stocks …
21st December 2022
Aluminium production in decline, despite positive base effects A low base in 2021 is driving an increase in global aluminium output this year, but the bigger picture is that growth in supply is slowing as high power costs and soft demand take their …
20th December 2022
Bumper rise in crude stocks, little in the details to explain it While this week’s report revealed a whopping increase in commercial stocks, prices were up a little following the release. Instead, most attention is on the latest oil demand forecasts …
14th December 2022
Rising product stocks should eventually translate into lower crude demand Commercial crude stocks fell again, but there were some chunky builds in product stocks. Given the rise in stocks, product prices should fall further, which will eventually lead to …
7th December 2022
Refineries may reduce output soon amid soft domestic demand Commercial crude stocks plunged as the refinery utilisation rate rose, net imports fell sharply and strategic reserve releases continued to wind down. However, signs of lower domestic product …
30th November 2022
Commercial crude stocks fell for a second consecutive week and are likely to come under further pressure if strategic reserve releases wind down. Despite this, oil prices slid on demand worries and as rumours around the G7’s plan to cap the price of …
23rd November 2022
