Filtered by Subscriptions: US Economics Use setting US Economics
Overview – We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the middle of next year, we would expect GDP …
19th December 2024
Overview – With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is still relatively low. Despite the downshift …
23rd September 2024
Overview – We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but, as the shift in monetary policy begins to …
25th June 2024
Overview – Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our forecasts are based on the assumption of no …
21st March 2024
Overview – As core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates eventually falling to between 3.00% and 3.25% in …
6th December 2023
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.1% this year to only 0.8% in 2024, with the economy still likely to experience a near recession around the end of this year. Core inflation will continue to fall back to the 2% target by mid-2024, with much …
29th September 2023
Overview – We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually be cut more quickly than markets are pricing …
11th July 2023
Overview – Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier than we had originally expected, however, …
29th March 2023
Overview – We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment rate, we expect both headline and core …
5th December 2022
Overview – We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive up the unemployment rate. As a result, we …
5th October 2022
Overview – We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger than we expected this year but, on balance, …
19th July 2022
Overview – We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential pace over the next two-and-a-half years, but …
12th April 2022
Overview – We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core inflation will average 4.3% in 2022 and close to …
20th January 2022
Overview – The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not for at least six to 12 months. But the drop in …
18th October 2021
Overview – Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3% for the remainder of this year, with only a …
13th July 2021
Overview – The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if economic growth turns out to be markedly …
14th April 2021
Overview – With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid-year – we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this …
19th January 2021
Overview – Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves of coronavirus infections during the winter …
1st October 2020
Overview – The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is likely to be slower in the second half of …
6th July 2020
Overview – As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment rate spiking to 12.5% within a few months. …
6th April 2020
Overview – Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards. We forecast that GDP growth will be 1.9% in …
16th December 2019
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one final 25bp interest rate cut from the Fed in …
26th September 2019
Overview – We expect GDP growth to slow sharply in the second half of this year, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp. GDP growth will slow from 2.3% this year to 1.2% in 2020, before looser financial conditions prompt a recovery …
27th June 2019
