Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The main measures of unemployment have recently been giving conflicting messages. We think that the ILO measure – which is still rising sharply – is most relevant to the consumer spending outlook. … ILO measure of unemployment most relevant for …
23rd July 2009
The consumer sector is sharing in the improvement seen in the wider economy. That said, this simply means that consumer spending is probably falling at a slower rate than before, rather than rising strongly. What’s more, the recent recovery could soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes & CBI Industrial Trends (July) …
22nd July 2009
The recent rises in the major house price indices have fanned hopes that the worst of the housing market correction is now behind us. Yet price rises driven only by a temporary imbalance between the number of willing buyers and sellers will not be …
21st July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Jun.) …
The broad monetary aggregates are still showing little sign of responding to the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programme of asset purchases. We therefore continue to doubt that the QE undertaken so far will ensure a strong economic recovery. …
20th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation gap set to narrow …
With the economy emerging tentatively from recession, the near-term outlook for consumer spending has improved since the previous Analyst. As a result, we have nudged up our forecasts for overall consumer spending. … Retail to suffer renewed period of …
16th July 2009
The consumer downturn has so far been driven primarily by tighter credit conditions, falling house prices and low consumer confidence. But weak household income growth will play an increasing role, as unemployment rises further, pay growth slows and …
15th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (May/Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jun.) …
14th July 2009
We do not think that reversing quantitative easing (QE) is an immediate concern for the Bank of England. Not only will the large amount of spare capacity keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time yet, but the looming fiscal tightening will delay …
13th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still on track for more QE …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Jun.) …
10th July 2009
The MPC’s failure today to announce an extension of its quantitative easing (QE) programme was a little disappointing in light of the continued weakness of the economic outlook. But further policy action almost certainly lies ahead. … MPC not done with QE …
9th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Manufacturing recovery looking weaker …
7th July 2009
There is little doubt that the near-term outlook for the economy has improved. But there remains a huge amount of uncertainty about just what shape the recovery will take. … U, V or W? (Q3 …
The markets have assumed that the initial and main policy response to a recovery in the UK economy will come from higher interest rates, and at a fairly early stage. But there are some good reasons why both the timing and shape of any policy tightening …
6th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Data cast doubts on recovery prospects …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jun.) & HEW (Q1) …
3rd July 2009
We think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme further within the next couple of months. The Committee may prefer to wait until August, to coincide with the publication of the Inflation Report and the …
2nd July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) …
The downward revision to GDP in the first quarter means that the recession has been even deeper than previously thought. The 2.4% quarterly drop in GDP means that output has now fallen by a total of 4.9% – comparable to the falls seen at the same stage in …
1st July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS Report on Manufacturing/Index of Services …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) …
30th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (June) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Lending Figures (May) …
29th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer imbalances should not be underplayed …
26th June 2009
The Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) supports our view that bank lending growth will remain sluggish for a prolonged period, thus constraining the likely recovery in the overall economy. … Financial Stability Report highlights …
The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. … Unemployment unlikely to peak until …
25th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) …
24th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade boost under threat? …
22nd June 2009
Consumer spending looks unlikely to keep falling at such a sharp rate as the 1.2% drop seen in Q1. After all, it now looks like the overall economy could be out of recession as soon as Q3, or even the current quarter, and given its 65% or so weight in …
19th June 2009
The latest monetary indicators confirm that the Bank of England’s asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme are providing some boost to the money holdings of the non-bank sector. But there is still little evidence of a wider pick-up in …
18th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) …
17th June 2009
