Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Following the recent flare-up in global trade tensions and dovish shift in the Riksbank’s stance, we have revised down our already below-consensus end-2019 forecast for the krona against the euro from SEK 10.6 to 11.0. But we still expect it to recover …
16th May 2019
The small pick-up in Swedish inflation in April was caused by the later timing of Easter this year. Amid signs that economic growth has slowed sharply in the first half of 2019, we expect headline inflation to fall back again over the coming months and …
14th May 2019
The slowdown in mainland Norway GDP growth in Q1, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% q/q in Q4 to 0.3% in Q1, was sharper than we had expected. However, the result was driven in part by a weather-related fall in electricity production, so we suspect that the …
13th May 2019
The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Riksbank’s April policy meeting further …
10th May 2019
Norwegian inflation data for April, released this morning, remained well above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target and will reinforce policymakers’ current hawkish stance. … Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices …
Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to remain above target this year, we have a further rate …
9th May 2019
If the ECB re-starts QE next year, as we think is likely, the resulting upward pressure on the Swiss franc would stoke deflationary fears at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and prompt a policy response. We expect the SNB to step up its currency …
8th May 2019
We expect policymakers in Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Sweden to all leave interest rates unchanged at their next policy meetings over the coming weeks and months. In the case of the Norges Bank, we suspect that this will just be a pause in its …
As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the manufacturing PMI in April points to a deepening …
3rd May 2019
This morning’s release of inflation data from Switzerland for April yielded no surprises and showed that price pressures remain almost completely absent. We expect the headline rate to fall close to zero over the coming months and that core inflation will …
Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases. Accordingly, concerns about these costs will not prevent …
2nd May 2019
The manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for April make for grim reading and suggest that economic conditions have stayed weak at the start of the second quarter. This supports our generally dovish view on policy rates, particularly for …
The decrease in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in April leaves it consistent with subdued quarterly GDP growth this year, in line with our forecast. And we expect the franc to appreciate this year, leaving the stage set for further relaxation in policy …
30th April 2019
The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance this week was a step in the right direction, but we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for interest rate hikes in Sweden in the future. Meanwhile, the Riksbank’s …
26th April 2019
For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening to ultimately be kicked down the road. If anything, the …
The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance is a step in the right direction. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued over the coming years, we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for …
25th April 2019
We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our view that the price of oil will fall between now and …
24th April 2019
The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to drag on into May, but we think that the Social Democrats …
18th April 2019
Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued, prompting …
The success of the nationalist Finns Party in yesterday’s parliamentary election is further evidence of the increasing fragmentation in European politics, while the tight result suggests that the process of forming a government in Finland will be even …
15th April 2019
Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo …
12th April 2019
Swedish inflation data for March, released this morning, lend further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep policy looser for longer than it and investors expect. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
11th April 2019
The latest indicators have added to the evidence that economic growth in much of Scandinavia slowed at the start of 2019. Indeed, after strong finishes to 2018, surveys suggest that GDP in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland will have done well to grow at all in …
10th April 2019
The pick-up in core inflation pressures in Norway in March suggests that the Norges Bank will stay in tightening mode for now. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we think that policymakers will end their tightening cycle sooner …
The weak private sector production data from Sweden for February suggests that the economy is likely to have flat-lined at best in Q1. With core price pressures expected to remain subdued, we continue to expect the Riksbank will leave its repo rate …
8th April 2019
The sharp drop in the manufacturing PMI in Switzerland in March provides the clearest sign yet that the woes in euro-zone industry have spread over the border. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and services PMIs from Sweden for March suggest that GDP growth …
5th April 2019
The Swiss economy will not be immune to weak growth in the euro-zone over the coming years, but rising demand from Asia and the increased importance of sectors that are relatively insensitive to the exchange rate will at least cushion the blow. …
4th April 2019
The slight pick-up in Swiss inflation in March does not change our view that the headline rate will fall back into negative territory in mid-2019 and that core price pressures will remain extremely weak. … Swiss Consumer Prices …
2nd April 2019
The manufacturing PMIs for March provide further evidence that the Swiss and Swedish economies made a weak start to 2019. This underlines our view that policymakers there will be in no rush to tighten policy. … Manufacturing PMIs …
1st April 2019
The scandal at Swedbank raise questions about transparency, corruption, and the relationship between banks and regulators in Sweden, while the collapse of WOW Air means that the chances of further rate hikes this year are diminishing. Meanwhile, the …
29th March 2019
The sharp pick-up in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in March does not change our view that GDP growth in Switzerland will slow this year. However, it supports our forecast that the economy will hold up reasonably well in the face of weak growth in the …
The decline in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in March was not as bad as we had feared given the sharp fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI last week. But it is still consistent with a sluggish start to the year for the Swedish economy …
27th March 2019
If the past is anything to go by, a fresh round of ECB QE would lead to upward pressure on the Danish krone. We think Denmark’s Nationalbank would react with a combination of FX intervention and rate cuts, which would see it reduce its key policy rate to …
26th March 2019
In a week when the Fed called time on its tightening cycle, and further signs of weakness in euro-zone activity lent extra support to our view that the ECB will ultimately have to do more to ease policy, the Norges Bank stands out as a rare example of a …
22nd March 2019
We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. … Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker …
Today’s decision by the Norges Bank, to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, came as no surprise, but policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than expected. While the Bank is now likely to continue its tightening cycle in the second half of this …
21st March 2019
As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its statement accompanying the decision, we now just expect one …
20th March 2019
Price pressures generally remained subdued in Switzerland and the Nordic economics in February. Core inflation is still stubbornly low in Switzerland and while it is higher in Sweden, it has now been stable in a narrow band since the start of last year. …
19th March 2019
We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast for GDP growth in 2020 is too optimistic. Meanwhile, the …
15th March 2019
The Norges Bank is all but certain to increase interest rates to 1.0% at its policy meeting next week. In contrast, we expect policymakers in Switzerland and Iceland to leave rates unchanged at their March meetings (also scheduled for next week). The next …
14th March 2019
The fall in Swedish inflation in February lends further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep interest rates on hold at least into 2021. In fact, with core price pressures subdued, and a rising chance of additional stimulus from the ECB, the …
12th March 2019
The stronger-than-expected rise in core Norwegian inflation in February makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will increase interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we …
11th March 2019
The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if Thursday’s announcement turns out to mark the start of …
8th March 2019
The more dovish than expected stance adopted by the ECB at today’s monetary policy meeting supports our view that the SNB will also keep rates lower for longer. And if the euro-zone economy disappoints as we expect, the SNB may find itself having to get …
7th March 2019
The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start to 2019. … Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. …
5th March 2019
Q4 GDP data from Switzerland and the Nordics released this week mostly showed impressive rates of growth – particularly in Sweden. However, upon closer inspection, the data masked signs of domestic weakness. … Impressive GDP figures mask domestic …
1st March 2019
The slight pick-up in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in February provides some comfort that the recent downward pressure on their industrial sectors has not intensified. However, weakness in euro-zone industry is likely to continue to cast a …
Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop of a slowing European economy, we also expect Nordic and …
28th February 2019
We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to activity skewed to the downside, it is even plausible that …
26th February 2019
The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear solid enough, they only add to the evidence that activity …
22nd February 2019
