Filtered by Subscriptions: Japan Economics Use setting Japan Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A better week in prospect for Japanese data …
25th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More stimulus coming soon …
22nd January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Confidence (Dec.) …
19th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What difference will Kan make? …
18th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Machinery Orders (Nov.) …
14th January 2010
Despite the relative inactivity of the central bank, Japan’s broad monetary aggregates are picking up. The year-on-year decline in bank lending in December is probably not as worrying as it looks either. However, the survey evidence suggests that …
12th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EWS & Bank Lending (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bright outlook for 2010 …
11th January 2010
We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of the IMF (1.7%) and the OECD (1.8%). However, having …
5th January 2010
The data released over the holiday period were mostly upbeat, with the early stabilisation in the labour market supporting consumer spending and external demand continuing to recover. The announcement of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus at the …
The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese experience, we are not so sure. … A fresh look at the …
22nd December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Small Business Confidence (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … External Trade (Nov.) …
21st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery restrained, but intact …
Despite the interest and speculation today’s announcement has generated, the Bank of Japan’s change to its language on price stability is trivial and will have no implications for monetary policy. … Bank of Japan raises inflation sights, …
18th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still more that could be done …
17th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tankan (Dec.) …
14th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the investment cycle bottomed out? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Confidence (Nov.) …
11th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP (Q3, Revised) …
9th December 2009
The government’s scope for manoeuvre on fiscal policy is obviously limited given Japan’s huge public debt, but the additional stimulus announced today was probably the best that could be expected. … Fiscal stimulus small but perfectly …
8th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Perceptions trump reality on the yen …
7th December 2009
The slump in business spending in Q3 revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is partly old news, but the quarterly profile points to a substantial downward revision to the GDP data for the quarter. We have cut our Q3 GDP estimate to +0.3% …
3rd December 2009
The markets are right to be underwhelmed by the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a fresh injection of liquidity. An even longer period of ultra-loose monetary policy will maintain the downward pressure on government bond yields, but will have little impact …
1st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Output, PMI, Pay & Housing Starts (Oct./Nov.) …
30th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s happening in Japan’s labour market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CPI, Unemployment and Spending (Oct.) …
27th November 2009
The continued recovery in Japanese exports in October supports our view that GDP growth will not slow as much in the fourth quarter as most seem to expect. However, a sharp fall in imports last month and another decline in the non-manufacturing component …
25th November 2009
Japanese equities may be on the defensive, pressured by policy uncertainty, fiscal worries and deflation fears, but the real economy is continuing to recover strongly. We expect GDP growth to surprise the markets on the upside for a few quarters yet. … …
24th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a threat is deflation to the recovery? …
23rd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A refreshingly simple exit strategy …
18th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Japan facing a sovereign debt crisis? …
16th November 2009
The falls in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in October suggest that the recovery lost a little momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, growth was probably unsustainably strong in the third quarter and these balances …
10th November 2009
The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that the most important monetary stimulus (in the form of …
30th October 2009
Looking beyond the headline year-on-year figures, Japan’s export volumes jumped again in the third quarter. The strength of the yen is not an insurmountable hurdle as long as global demand is rebounding, although exporters’ margins are being squeezed to …
22nd October 2009
The Bank of Japan’s silence on when it will end its purchases of bank-owned corporate debt is being interpreted by some as a lack of faith in the recovery and by others as a response to government pressure. To our mind, it was simply too soon to expect an …
14th October 2009
The Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey released today showed a further improvement in the business conditions faced by large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. But the pick-up in sentiment amongst smaller companies, which are most focused on …
1st October 2009
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey (released on 1st October) will show a marked improvement in business conditions faced by large manufacturers. However, a rebound in sentiment among smaller companies, and in non-manufacturing, would be much more …
25th September 2009
As usual, the headlines today have focused on the continued weakness of Japanese exports in year-onyear terms. But the more revealing monthly profile shows a sixth successive increase. … Japanese exports continue to …
24th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation and near-zero rates to last for years …
11th September 2009
The Japanese economy posted the strongest rebound in the G7 in Q2, but was also first into recession and had previously suffered the sharpest falls in activity. Massive amounts of spare capacity will keep investment weak, while the pickup in consumer …
2nd September 2009
It is tempting to dismiss the significance of the surge in Japanese unemployment as a lagging indicator, but this would be a mistake. With nominal wages already falling outright, growing excess labour increases the threat of a downward spiral in wages and …
28th August 2009
Confirmation of a decisive Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) victory in Sunday’s general election in Japan should provide a further near-term boost to the Nikkei and possibly the yen too, but this outcome is already widely anticipated. The upside may …
27th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q2 Prelim.) …
17th August 2009
Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing risk that the recovery stalls as deflationary …
31st July 2009
The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will have returned to positive quarterly GDP growth in Q2 – …
23rd July 2009
The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary” measures which are helping to support the financial system and …
15th July 2009
Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing oblivion in the Lower House elections confirmed today …
13th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More work still to do …
10th July 2009
