Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
Overview – We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from US tariffs. An end to the war in Ukraine …
27th March 2025
Overview – Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region will disappoint consensus expectations for …
17th December 2024
Overview – We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the coming quarters, while tight policy will take some heat …
17th September 2024
Overview – Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is likely to be accompanied by renewed inflation …
6th June 2024
Overview – Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months but in some parts of the …
26th March 2024
Overview – Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to central banks’ targets will take time and we …
7th December 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and Eastern …
28th September 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We expect GDP …
21st June 2023
Overview – There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect below-consensus GDP growth in most …
30th March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are below …
12th December 2022
Overview – Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost all economies in the region to experience a …
13th October 2022
Overview – Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we think that GDP will do little more than stagnate …
20th July 2022
Overview – The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic States. Loose fiscal policy and strong labour …
20th April 2022
Overview – We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we think that persistent capacity constraints …
20th January 2022
Overview – The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation and supply disruptions. Central European …
20th October 2021
Overview – Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses the greatest threat to the near-term …
21st July 2021
Overview – Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for growth are generally above the consensus and …
26th April 2021
Overview – Prolonged containment measures mean that activity in Emerging Europe will remain depressed for longer than we had previously expected. But the region is well-placed to access and distribute vaccines, which should allow activity to recover more …
14th January 2021
Overview – Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more strongly from the crisis than many other …
22nd October 2020
Overview – The economies of Emerging Europe are set to bounce back more strongly from the coronavirus crisis than those in many other parts of the world. Central Europe will lead the recovery. Governments have had success in slowing the spread of the …
22nd July 2020
Overview – Emerging Europe will experience its largest decline in real GDP this year since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aggressive policy response across Central Europe and the ability of the authorities there to bring the virus under control …
23rd April 2020
Overview – Regional GDP growth is likely to gather pace this year as loose monetary and fiscal policy bolsters recoveries in Russia and Turkey and helps to cushion the slowdown in Central Europe. Interest rates will probably end this year lower than …
23rd January 2020
Overview – Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and Eastern Europe are likely to slow further as …
16th October 2019
Overview – Regional GDP growth probably hit a trough in the first half of the year, but the recovery from here on will be sluggish. Turkey is only likely to pull out of its recent recession slowly, and growth in Russia will be held back by oil output …
9th July 2019
