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Inflation driven solely by food and energy prices is not exactly what the Bank of Japan has been hoping for. Nonetheless, even if Japan is experiencing the “wrong” type of inflation now, the chances that underlying inflation will pick up later in the year …
28th March 2008
India’s 6th Pay Commission recommendation for generous central government worker pay hikes may have little, if any, impact on constraining corruption in the civil service but it will certainly stoke inflationary concerns. If the recommendations are …
25th March 2008
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for March, due next Tuesday (1st April), will almost certainly show that business conditions have deteriorated. However, the markets are already prepared for a sharp decline and the outturn may well prove to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan: no recession, and no rate cut either …
24th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The yen at 100 …
17th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where next for Chinese monetary policy? …
10th March 2008
The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected. The real interest lies in the dispute over the replacement for Governor Fukui, who retires later this month. We think that the government’s preferred candidate Toshiro Muto will still be …
7th March 2008
Thailand is the only one of these seven economies which is likely to grow faster this year than last. Consumers are still wary, but business investment has picked up during the smooth return to civilian rule. The abandonment of capital controls should …
4th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s Olympics: take a deep breath, and relax …
3rd March 2008
Most discussion of the outlook for Japan in 2008 assumes that the two alternatives are a sharp slowdown or an outright recession. However, much of the incoming data actually favours a third scenario: another year of decent growth at or above the economy’s …
29th February 2008
At 8.4% y/y, India’s Q4 GDP figure confirmed that it is not immune to the global slowdown. The deceleration is not entirely unwelcome as it puts growth on a more sustainable path. Nevertheless, in a populist Budget also released today, India’s government …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Indian slowdown provides breathing room …
25th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan's last hurrah? …
18th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The myth of China's monetary expansion …
14th February 2008
The surge in GDP at the end of 2007 supports our non-consensus view that, rather than heading for recession, Japan will be the only major economy to grow at least as quickly this year as last. It should also dampen speculation that the next move in …
The latest data suggest that the Indian economy is holding up well despite the slowdown in the West. New statistics on output and prices suggest that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is under reduced pressure to cut rates at its next scheduled quarterly …
13th February 2008
Indonesia has come a long way since the Asian crisis of 1997-98, but for the most part of this last decade it has been a story of underperformance. With appropriate macroeconomic policies and further reforms, however, a pick-up in investment could allow …
11th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The end of an era in China …
After several years during which wages have grown more slowly than the economy, consumption accounted for barely a third of overall Chinese demand in 2007. But there are a couple of reasons to think it will play a much bigger role in the next couple of …
7th February 2008
Some influential commentators are now suggesting that China has as high a chance of sinking into recession over the next couple of years as the US (see Kenneth Rogoff in today’s FT for an example). This is surely absurd. In particular, concerns about …
5th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Japan heading for recession? …
4th February 2008
Asia as a whole is in good shape to weather a global slowdown this year, but the contraction in Singapore’s GDP at the end of 2007 underlines that smaller, tradereliant economies will suffer as demand growth elsewhere in the world slows. The US Fed’s …
31st January 2008
The latest housing starts data should (but perhaps won’t) quieten talk that Japan is heading into recession. Indeed, we are increasingly confident that a sustained recovery in the construction sector could add half a percentage point or more to GDP growth …
Fears over the demise of the US consumer have left many wondering where the next source of global demand will come from. We are sceptical that increased Chinese demand will do much to offset the slowdown elsewhere. But China certainly has the resources to …
29th January 2008
The surprise jump in household spending in December suggests that it is too soon to write-off the Japanese consumer. The labour market is also holding up rather better than many had expected and almost certainly better than the fall in job vacancies …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Fed putting a squeeze on China’s currency policy? …
28th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't rely on China to save the world …
24th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sub-prime losses spread to China …
22nd January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan signals next move in rates is still up …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Korea struggling for lift-off …
21st January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is Asia to higher food prices? …
14th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China hints at new price controls …
9th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2008 will be the year of the yen …
7th January 2008
Japan is not currently in recession as commonly defined (that is, two quarters of negative growth, or a year-on-year decline). But the level of GDP failed to recover fully in the third quarter of last year from the decline in the second, while domestic …
2nd January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the party over for China's equity investors? …
24th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's tight monetary policy: nice while it lasted …
20th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan: first into recession, first out? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Thailand goes back to the polls …
17th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little cause for alarm in softer Tankan …
14th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks ease the liquidity crisis, but problems go deeper …
12th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese consumers fear stagflation, not deflation …
11th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China warming to faster currency appreciation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can Asia take up the slack? …
10th December 2007
Asia outperformed expectations in the third quarter, with reassuring strength in domestic demand helping to offset a softening in the external environment. However the dramatic rise in oil prices in the last few weeks has introduced new problems. It is a …
6th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tighter monetary policy not a new departure for China …
5th December 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's deteriorating relationship with Europe …
3rd December 2007
The recent strong performance of emerging Asian economies is likely to be severely tested by a USled global slowdown in the next year or two. However, provided the US avoids an outright recession (as we expect), Asian growth should still be buoyant and …
26th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are markets now too pessimistic on Japan? …
Continued high inflation is a worry for China’s monetary policy-makers. But higher prices have helped many food producers: real incomes are now growing faster in rural areas than in the cities. Families also seem to have reacted to higher food bills by …
22nd November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's temporary credit freeze. …
19th November 2007
