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GDP data published earlier today showed that Korea's economy picked up in Q1 on the back of robust export growth. However, the export recovery is unlikely to be sustained. With inflation set to remain low, further monetary policy loosening is expected …
25th April 2013
Inflation decelerated across Emerging Asia over the past year, with the y/y rate falling further in March in most of the economies we track. Inflation is also low by historic standards. Falling commodity prices and below-trend growth will continue to put …
24th April 2013
Commodity prices have fallen sharply over the past week as investors have taken a more downbeat view of global growth prospects. Although weak global demand is likely to weigh on Asia during the rest of 2013, lower commodity prices will be a supporting …
22nd April 2013
Last month’s drop in India’s wholesale price inflation will have come as a relief to policymakers who have been trying, with limited success, to lower inflation over the last three years. Market clamour for more rate cuts is set to rise. However, keeping …
15th April 2013
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision to leave policy settings unchanged on Friday was no great surprise, given persistently high inflation. Despite the likelihood that growth will remain weak over the next couple of years, inflation concerns …
Today’s industrial production data were better than expected, confirming that India’s industry is picking up. But the data also highlight the growing imperative for a faster pace of approvals of infrastructure and other large scale projects to sustain the …
12th April 2013
Although Bank Indonesia kept interest rates on hold today, there is a growing risk that rising headline inflation will cause the central bank to hike rates before the end of the year. However, provided core inflation remains subdued as we expect, interest …
11th April 2013
China has come to play a key role as an assembly hub at the centre of increasingly sophisticated supply chain networks. For the rest of Asia, the main winners from this process have been those countries that have been able to integrate themselves into …
8th April 2013
Malaysia’s government dissolved parliament on Wednesday, leaving the election commission a 60-day window in which to call an election. This Weekly explains why, although an opposition victory is unlikely, it would have profound implications for the …
Emerging Asia began the year with plenty of momentum, but the recovery is already showing signs of losing steam. Growth in 2013-14 is likely to be slower than has been the norm. Lacklustre global demand will weigh heavily on the region’s most …
4th April 2013
Fitch Ratings became the first major rating agency to grant the Philippines investment grade status when it upgraded the country last Wednesday. Other agencies are likely to follow soon. This Weekly looks at the likely implications. … Philippines - no …
1st April 2013
Economic activity in emerging Asia rebounded strongly in the final quarter of last year. However, there are signs that the recovery may be running out of steam. Our GDP tracker dipped slightly in January, while the most recent PMIs have also been weak. …
26th March 2013
The central bank in Vietnam today announced the seventh reduction in interest rates in just over a year. The move comes in response to very weak growth and subdued price pressures. With the economy set for another year of slow growth in 2013, further rate …
25th March 2013
Asian exports have strengthened considerably in recent months, providing a boost to regional growth. This Weekly looks at what has been driving the rebound, and explains why a strong and sustained export recovery is unlikely this year. … Will Asia’s …
New Zealand’s economy grew faster than expected in Q4. Reconstruction spending is finally ramping up, but growth will be held back by a drought that has hit North Island. … New Zealand near-term outlook marred by …
21st March 2013
The Reserve Bank of India stuck to the script and eased monetary policy today. Looking ahead, the market consensus is for another 25bp cut before year-end. However, we expect a long policy hold. While concerns about the economic slowdown are not about to …
19th March 2013
Inflation has been on a downtrend trend across most of Asia over the past year, allowing central banks to keep monetary policy loose to support domestic demand. In this Weekly we assess the outlook for inflation, and also the implications for monetary …
18th March 2013
Higher-than-expected wholesale price inflation in India has raised some doubts about whether policy easing is imminent. However, a closer look at today’s data shows that core inflation has dropped to one of the lowest rates in years. We continue to expect …
14th March 2013
Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect the key policy rate to be cut in a week’s time. … …
12th March 2013
Indonesia continues to be among the best performers in Asia. However, rising inflation, a weakening currency, and haphazard policymaking have become growing concerns. This Weekly takes a closer look at these issues and assesses the implications for …
11th March 2013
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) held its overnight rate at 3.0% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Despite a pick-up in GDP growth, there is little pressure on BNM to hike rates in 2013. … Malaysia under little pressure to hike …
7th March 2013
Australia’s economy retained good momentum in Q4, despite a downturn in private investment. The outlook for the next two years hinges on the strength of non-mining sectors as the mining boom cools. We expect policy loosening to cushion, but not prevent, …
6th March 2013
Weak global trade held back growth across most of Asia last year. But strong domestic demand helped much of South East Asia outperform. Not only did Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia grow faster than others in Asia, they also comfortably …
4th March 2013
The February PMIs for emerging Asia were weak, with little sign of upward momentum across the region. Despite policy easing at home, the uncertain outlook for the developed world means Asia’s industrial sector faces a bumpy ride over the coming year. … …
1st March 2013
Today’s budget statement reveals that India’s central government has been able to lower its fiscal deficit from 5.7% of GDP a year ago to 5.2% in the current fiscal year. It appears determined to go further in the coming year, but the going will get …
28th February 2013
Economic activity across emerging Asia is showing further signs of recovery. Growth has been strongest in South East Asia, where domestic demand has continued to shrug off the impact of weak exports. Inflation in most countries is relatively low, and is …
Today’s FY 2013 budget focused on raising medium-term growth by boosting productivity. The government resisted short-term pump priming but, with unemployment low and a number of today’s measures likely to raise firms’ costs, inflation remains a threat. …
25th February 2013
Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy credibility. … India's budget: A test of policy …
Singapore’s new official population forecasts have created a stir among an electorate worried about overcrowding and heavy immigration. But from an economic point of view, the biggest takeaway is that even on these forecasts population growth is set to …
21st February 2013
Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their output, but it will also add to the stockpiles of …
20th February 2013
Thailand’s Q4 GDP data suggest that the economy ended last year on a strong note, which lessens the urgency for policy settings to be loosened. However, we expect the economy to slow later this year and prompt renewed rate cuts by end-2013. … Thailand's …
18th February 2013
Having trended lower since the 2008-2009 global crisis, Emerging Asia’s government bond yields have risen so far this year. In this Weekly , we examine the reasons for the pick-up and the outlook for yields over the rest of this year. … What lies ahead …
Wholesale price inflation in India fell more than expected in January, to 6.6%. But with consumer price inflation rising to 10.8% and the current account deficit heading for a record high this year, the central bank is unlikely to rush to ease rates …
14th February 2013
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation will remain low. The upshot is that we expect the BoK …
While the State Bank of Pakistan may wish to cut rates further to stimulate the economy, there is a growing risk that the central bank will be forced into tightening policy instead. … Pakistan's central bank is in a …
13th February 2013
Property prices look significantly overvalued in Hong Kong and parts of Taiwan. As such, while the risk of a slump in exports bringing recession in these trade-oriented economies has subsided recently, threats from closer to home still loom large. … …
11th February 2013
Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q4, with the pace of growth down only slightly from the previous quarter. Although weak global demand will remain a drag on the economy in 2013-14, domestic demand should remain strong. We expect …
5th February 2013
The yen has significantly weakened against Asian currencies in the last few months. Given the similarity of many of their exports, Korean exporters look most vulnerable to a depreciating yen. However, as this Weekly explains, the negative impact of yen …
4th February 2013
The January PMIs for emerging Asia were disappointing. Improving global sentiment should provide a small boost to Asian industry in coming months, but conditions overall are likely to remain weak. … January PMIs suggest industry …
1st February 2013
GDP growth in the Philippines remained strong in Q4, with the pace of expansion slowing only slightly from the previous quarter. Although we remain upbeat about medium-term prospects, growth is likely to slow in 2013 as favourable base effects wear off. …
31st January 2013
Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy ended 2012 on a strong note. But Taiwan remains vulnerable to a renewed deterioration in global sentiment, which we think is likely this year. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2013 still look optimistic …
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) met expectations that it would cut its key policy rate today. However, the accompanying policy statement suggests there may be only limited further policy loosening over the balance of the year. Our forecast is for just one …
29th January 2013
Despite a similarly strong economic performance last year, the currencies of Indonesia and the Philippines have gone in opposite directions, with the peso significantly outperforming the rupiah. In this Weekly we outline the reasons for this divergence …
28th January 2013
Emerging Asia’s GDP growth looks to have rebounded in the final quarter of last year, led by strength in South East Asia. Meanwhile, inflation remains comfortably low for policymakers in most countries. An improvement in global risk appetite has helped …
25th January 2013
Korea’s Q4 GDP data show that the economy ended 2012 on a weak note. We think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon, while inflation looks set to remain low. Accordingly, we maintain our non-consensus view that Korea’s policy rate will be …
24th January 2013
Exports from Vietnam grew strongly last year in what was a rare bright spot for the country’s troubled economy. In this Weekly we look at how Vietnam has managed to buck the regional trend and outline why this outperformance is likely to continue in 2013. …
21st January 2013
Asian growth looks to have picked up late last year and is likely to fare well in the near term. However, growth in 2013-14 is unlikely to be strong due to lacklustre external demand and structural weaknesses in Asia’s major economies. Policy rates in …
17th January 2013
India’s growth rate, rather than rebounding as many hoped, may be stabilising at a low level. But the latest fall in underlying inflation does at least provide a green light for the central bank to cut rates. … Latest data support case for rate cut in …
14th January 2013
We expect growth in the developed world to be sluggish in 2013, which suggests that Asia’s exports are unlikely to be strong. But the downside will be mitigated by Asia’s exports increasingly going to other emerging regions, where growth prospects are …
11th January 2013
