Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
The demise of the TPP represents a major blow to some countries in Emerging Asia, most notably Vietnam. The benefits of any China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. … How big a blow is the demise of the TPP to …
24th January 2017
There remains a great deal of uncertainty over what a Trump presidency will mean for the US economy, let alone Asia. This Weekly looks at the key channels through which a Trump presidency will affect the region. … What will a Trump presidency mean for …
20th January 2017
Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today, and with inflation set to rise later in the year and the currency likely to come under renewed downward pressure as the Fed continues to hike interest rates, we see little scope for further …
19th January 2017
Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. With the economy now recovering and the ringgit vulnerable to turns in investor sentiment, we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2017. … …
Policymakers in Vietnam are becoming increasingly complacent of the risks posed by the rapid build-up in debt, as reflected by the government’s recent announcement that it was targeting credit growth of 17% this year. Such an outcome would be almost …
17th January 2017
Poor infrastructure remains a major constraint on economic growth prospects across large parts of Emerging Asia. A couple of countries, namely the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to see a big increase in infrastructure spending over the next few …
13th January 2017
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with growth likely to slow further and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut later this year. … Korea holds rates, but easing in 2017 …
Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set to slow as policy stimulus is withdrawn. Overall, we …
In this first Weekly of 2017, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. … Elections in 2017 – what they mean for …
6th January 2017
Emerging Asia’s PMIs were a mixed bag in December. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the recovery in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears to have accelerated, while Korea’s showed some signs of stabilisation. …
3rd January 2017
Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s fourth quarter GDP suggests the economy avoided a technical recession at the end of last year. However, rising interest rates and lacklustre global demand will keep growth subdued in 2017. … Singapore GDP (Q4 …
Q4 GDP figures for Vietnam, which are due to be published sometime over the next couple of weeks, are likely to show the economy is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. However, the risks facing the country are building. Growth is unlikely to slow …
23rd December 2016
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to struggle over the coming year and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its easing cycle soon. … Taiwan to resume easing cycle next …
22nd December 2016
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates unchanged throughout 2017. … Thailand to keep rates on …
21st December 2016
Asian financial markets took last week’s resumption of the US Fed’s tightening cycle in their stride, but bigger tests are likely to come in 2017 if, as we expect, the Fed raises rates further than markets currently anticipate. Asian equities have been …
19th December 2016
The past year has been a mixed one for Asian economies, with buoyant domestic demand helping to compensate for continued weak export growth. But will next year be any better? In our penultimate Weekly of the year, we outline what 2017 has in store for the …
16th December 2016
Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise further next year, we think that BI’s easing cycle has now …
15th December 2016
GDP growth in Sri Lanka recovered in the third quarter of 2016, but with fiscal and monetary policy set to tighten further next year, a strong rebound is unlikely. … Sri Lanka GDP …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but with the growth outlook deteriorating and inflation benign, we expect a rate cut in 2017. … Korea holds rates, but cut in 2017 …
The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it has taken so far is a requirement for exporters to …
14th December 2016
For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. … Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate …
9th December 2016
It now appears only a matter of time until President Park Geun-hye is forced out of office. But even once she is gone, it will be a while before the political situation returns to anything like normal. With the crisis already taking a toll on the economy, …
6th December 2016
The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt burdens are relatively low and currency weakness is not a …
5th December 2016
The recent shift by the military government in Thailand towards economic populism will help to shore-up demand in the short-term. But the stalling of economic reform is undermining the country’s long-run growth prospects. … Thailand’s populist shift is …
2nd December 2016
The PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest conditions in the region’s manufacturing sectors mostly remained subdued in November. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the recovery in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector appears …
1st December 2016
Asian financial markets have stabilised after falling sharply in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump’s surprise US election victory. Looking ahead, we expect to see further falls in currencies over the coming year, but for equities to perform better. …
30th November 2016
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but with credit growing at an unsustainable pace, inflationary pressures building, and the US Federal Reserve set to resume its own tightening cycle soon, interest rates are …
29th November 2016
Regional GDP growth held steady at just under 4% last quarter, with buoyant domestic demand again helping to offset weak exports. With subdued global growth set to continue holding back exports, the onus will be on policymakers to support domestic demand …
25th November 2016
Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted last quarter. Looking ahead, the prospect of higher local interest rates and subdued global demand suggest a strong turnaround is unlikely. … Singapore GDP (Q3 …
24th November 2016
Political developments have taken centre stage over the past month. Aside from Donald Trump’s election victory, most attention in Asia has focused on Korea, where President Park Geun-hye is clinging to her job with her fingernails following allegations …
23rd November 2016
Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking ahead, fears of further currency weakness are likely …
Thailand’s growth slowed in Q3 and looks set to soften further over the coming quarters, due to high levels of household debt, lacklustre global growth and continued political uncertainty. … Thailand GDP …
21st November 2016
The demise of the TPP is a blow to economic prospects in Emerging Asia. The benefits of a China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. … China trade pact will not compensate for failure of …
18th November 2016
The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis. Despite weak economic growth and subdued inflationary …
Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most of the region’s central banks. … Inflation to rise, …
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in the US now looking more likely, we think BI’s easing …
17th November 2016
GDP data showed that the Philippines economy remains in good health, with growth picking up again in Q3. Looking ahead, the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political events, both in the US and domestically, have made the …
Korea’s political crisis has continued to deepen and looks likely to drag on, possibly for months. For the economy though, little has changed. The outlook was already difficult, with a lame duck president, exporters including Samsung struggling and a …
14th November 2016
Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. … Five questions (and answers) about Trump and …
11th November 2016
GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in the third quarter of 2016, and while the worst for the economy is now over, a sharp rebound is unlikely. … Malaysia GDP …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today and, while subdued growth and low inflation mean the BoK will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future, a high level of household debt is likely to deter further rate cuts. …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth likely to stay strong, we expect interest rates to remain …
10th November 2016
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in uncertainty and volatility following Donald Trump’s …
9th November 2016
The Philippines, followed by Taiwan and Korea, stand out as the countries in Asia with most to lose inthe event Donald Trump is elected as the next president of the United States. … What would a Trump victory mean for …
7th November 2016
Indonesia’s growth slowed to 5.0% y/y in Q3 from 5.2% in the previous quarter. While we don’t expect growth to weaken any further, with fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to provide much more support, we don’t expect a significant revival either. … …
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is aimed at addressing Pakistan’s perennial problems with power supply, and has been hailed by some, including the prime minister, as a game changer for the economy. However, without a more stable political and …
4th November 2016
A surge in household borrowing has provided a key support to economic growth across large parts of Emerging Asia over the past few years. Worst case scenarios of a financial crisis are unlikely to materialise, but with households now looking to put their …
3rd November 2016
Manufacturing conditions in Emerging Asia were lacklustre in October. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are further signs of improvement in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, but Korea’s continues to …
1st November 2016
31st October 2016
Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such a rapid pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained. … …
