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Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed over January and February, driven by a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. Fiscal expenditure is set to pick up over the coming months, but that will largely be offset by the drag from US …
24th March 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity picked up in December, but that was only enough to drive a modest uptick over Q4 as a whole. The CAP indicates that the economy grew by just 4.4% in 2024, well below the official figure of 5.0%. As a result …
28th January 2025
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth slowed in November. That was partly driven by a slowdown in fiscal support, reflected in weaker services activity in particular. But industrial activity also slowed on the back of weakening exports. …
31st December 2024
We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so far this year has been weaker than we originally …
27th November 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main driver was financial services activity which was …
29th October 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed in August, with construction seeing the sharpest deceleration. Alongside today’s monetary easing, an uptick in fiscal spending will help keep the economy afloat over the rest of this year, but it won’t …
24th September 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But once support starts to fade and export growth weakens, …
29th August 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal support will be ramped up soon, which should provide a …
30th July 2024
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support and new property support measures may continue to …
30th May 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in the near-term, structural headwinds will start to drag …
24th April 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow later this year as policy support fades. The CAP is our …
27th March 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further recovery is likely in the near-term. But we think momentum …
23rd January 2024
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less downbeat, further gains are likely in the near-term, but …
20th December 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy was still making headway last month, though it appears to have lost some steam. Downside risks continue to linger, particularly in the property sector. But we think policy support will keep the …
20th November 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth slowed in Q3. But the economy was regaining momentum at the end of the quarter, led by gains in the service sector. With stimulus still flowing, this recovery should continue over the coming quarters. …
25th October 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support is being stepped up, which should underpin a further …
20th September 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy regained some ground in July, following a contraction in June. But the big picture is that output has levelled off recently and that the economy could tip into a downward spiral unless policy …
29th August 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of future expansion will be more modest than in the past. …
27th July 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy stagnated in May as the tailwind from reopening fizzled out. We think officials will roll out sufficient policy support to keep the recovery alive but not enough to prevent subdued …
26th June 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that, despite losing some momentum, the economic recovery was still making progress at the start of Q2. And we think there is still scope for further improvement, especially in the service sector. The CAP is our …
29th May 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy bounced back rapidly in Q1, with growth since the start of the pandemic now broadly back in line with the official GDP data. And while the recovery will slow, the strong start to the year has …
26th April 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a sizeable rebound in services activity early in 2023. While it hasn’t completely run its course, the recovery will slow over the next few months. The CAP is our attempt to track the pace of growth in China without …
29th March 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output was still depressed at the end of 2022, though it held up surprisingly well in the face of a huge reopening wave of infections. With the virus situation now improving, activity appears on course for a …
19th January 2023
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) reveals the extent of the economic damage being done by the zero-COVID policy in its final weeks. Hopes that its ending would lead to a rapid recovery have been dashed though, as the rapid spread of infections has caused …
22nd December 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption led to a further decline in output in October. The combination of tightening COVID restrictions, voluntary isolation in the face of rising cases, problems in the property sector and falling …
23rd November 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further this month. We think the economy will contract this …
25th October 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption and cooling exports caused the economy to stagnate in August. September was likely worse and there is little upside in the near-term. The CAP is our attempt to track the pace of growth in …
28th September 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic rebound following the hit from lockdowns had petered out in July. And despite increased policy support, growing headwinds will continue to weigh on the economy during the remainder of the …
22nd August 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic hit from lockdowns had largely reversed in June. But infection numbers are ticking up again. And even if another large-scale virus wave is avoided, problems in the property sector and headwinds to …
21st July 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already been done and we now doubt that China’s economy …
22nd June 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that all of China’s pandemic-era growth has been reversed by recent lockdowns, with output in April no higher than during 2019. Activity should start to rebound this month on the back of easing restrictions. But the …
26th May 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that lockdowns in Jilin and Shenzhen triggered an outright contraction in the economy in March, even before restrictions were tightened in Shanghai and disruption to domestic freight traffic intensified this month. …
27th April 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy started the year on a stronger footing than it ended 2021. But these gains are already being derailed by China’s worst virus outbreak since Wuhan. The CAP is our attempt to track the pace of growth …
22nd March 2022
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which continue to depress service sector activity. We think …
24th January 2022
China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year well below the pre-pandemic path as a boom in construction …
20th December 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound remains lacklustre, with output still well below June’s …
24th November 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that output rebounded last month as the disruption to the service sector from virus outbreaks eased. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a sharp contraction last quarter. And even if services activity holds up better …
25th October 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month. But the downturn in the property sector has further …
27th September 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output dropped back further in July. This shouldn’t be dismissed as a temporary setback due to the recent virus outbreak. The main drag last month came from industry and construction, where the key headwinds …
24th August 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth accelerated in q/q terms last quarter but that output edged down in June on the back of softer industrial and construction activity. We think China’s COVID-19 rebound has reached its limits and that …
22nd July 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output remained strong in May but didn’t rise much further, with slowing credit growth weighing on construction and China’s pandemic-induced export boom showing signs of peaking. We think output will, at best, …
23rd June 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output rose further above its pre-virus trend last month thanks to the recent rebound in services and continued strength in industry and construction. We still think that activity will level off over the rest …
28th May 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth picked up last month as virus containment efforts were lifted. But this wasn’t enough to prevent a marked slowdown in q/q growth last quarter. With the export boom running out of road and the prop from …
26th April 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows a surge in year-on-year growth at the start of 2021. But the picture is more mixed after accounting for favourable base effects. Buoyant foreign demand boosted industry but travel restrictions held back services …
24th March 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth softened slightly at the end of 2020 but remained strong on the back of a further improvement in services. Domestic consumption should continue to pick-up this year as foreign demand drops back and …
22nd January 2021
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained robust last month thanks to a further pick-up in services and continued strength in construction and exports. We expect growth to remain above-trend for a while even as policy support is …
21st December 2020
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month as service sector activity returned to its pre-virus path, while strong construction and exports continued to boost industry. On our estimates, China’s economy is now …
19th November 2020
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month, thanks to policy stimulus, strong foreign demand and fewer constraints on services activity. On our estimates, China has fully recovered from the COVID-19 downturn and …
22nd October 2020
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month. On our estimates, China is already back on its pre-virus growth path, far earlier than other major economies. There are still pockets of weakness in services but the …
23rd September 2020
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) estimate for China’s rate of growth in December is somewhat academic at this point but, for what it’s worth, it showed the economy holding up well. Measures to constrain the new coronavirus will have dealt a sizeable blow to …
28th January 2020
