Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for India’s bond market? …
1st December 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rally in German Bunds on borrowed time? …
30th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are low JGB yields here to stay? …
27th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a stronger dollar derail the US stock market? …
26th November 2015
US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewed fall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do not think that this performance will continue, even if the Fed …
25th November 2015
Being long of the dollar is reportedly one of the most crowded trades in the market. However, we stillthink that the US currency has further to climb against other majors. Indeed, we now expect the euro tofall below parity no later than the middle of next …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro to fall to parity, and beyond …
Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems highly likely, investors’ required real return on equity …
Unlike in developed markets, interest rate differentials are not a particularly good guide to currency movements in emerging markets (EMs). Accordingly, while there will be bumps in the road, we do not expect EM currencies to suffer more heavy losses …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What's in store for US high-yield corporate bonds? …
24th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why China could breathe life back into EM equities …
23rd November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in euro-zone equities has further to go …
20th November 2015
This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view on the outlook for copper (and other industrial metals) …
Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia, Mozambique, Trinidad & Tobago, and Argentina have all …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed tightening not the end for EM financial markets …
19th November 2015
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the US dollar now looks “fundamentally” overvalued. However, valuations can stretch a long way before they snap, and other factors can have a greater influence on exchange rates in …
The positive reaction by investors to the minutes from October’s FOMC meeting supports our view that emerging markets (EM) will fare relatively well in 2016/17 as US interest rates are raised. We expect equities to outperform those in the developed world …
US equities have fared better than US Treasuries in 2015. We suspect that this will remain the case over the next couple of years, as the Fed tightens monetary policy. Nonetheless, the longer-term prospects for both asset classes appear to be quite poor. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What are the relative prospects for US equities and bonds? …
18th November 2015
The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have come under fire again, as the prices of the commodities that they export have dropped back. We think these prices are likely to recover a little next year, if not before. However, we do not expect this …
17th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the major commodity currencies? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil price set to recover …
16th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renewed weakness in industrial commodities should be temporary …
13th November 2015
Spain has been one of the stand-out economies in the euro-zone this year. However, the recent political developments in Catalonia and Portugal are a source of concern and opinion polls suggest that next month’s general election in Spain will result in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a savings glut save US Treasuries from tighter Fed policy? …
12th November 2015
The unusual stability of long-term US Treasury yields during the last Fed tightening cycle between 2004 and 2006 has been attributed to a glut of global savings. We are not convinced by this explanation. In any case, surplus savings outside the US are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable are euro-zone sovereign bonds to events in Portugal? …
11th November 2015
EM financial markets took the blockbuster October US employment report in their stride, and we continue to expect them to perform well even as the Fed starts to raise interest rates. … EM markets take blockbuster payrolls in their …
The UK stock market has performed poorly on an absolute and relative basis in 2015, dragged down by sharp falls in the basic materials and oil & gas sectors. These two sectors account for around one sixth of the market, which partly (although not fully) …
10th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s in store for the UK stock market? …
Since the end of the last recession, there has been an almost interrupted net outflow from US mutual funds that invest in domestic equities. This partly reflects investors’ growing preference for foreign equities. We would not be surprised if this pattern …
9th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are markets right to be relaxed about Fed tightening? …
The relatively calm reactions to Friday’s strong US employment report support our view that the gradual return of US interest rates towards more normal levels is unlikely to be the seismic shock that many have been fearing, particularly those following …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We think Friday’s sell-off in Treasuries has further to go …
6th November 2015
The valuation of emerging market (EM) equities relative to those in the developed world is the lowest it has been in recent memory. All else equal, this ought to lead to superior returns over the longer run, and is one reason why we expect EM equities to …
5th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risks to global growth may be shifting to the upside …
Although the Volkswagen emissions scandal refuses to go away, euro-zone equities have performed well recently, bolstered by a weaker euro amid growing expectations that the ECB will add additional monetary stimulus before long. We think they will continue …
Over the past month, the US dollar’s performance against other “major” currencies has been mixed. It has fared poorly against those of the two major commodity exporters, Australia and Canada, which have benefited from an improvement in sentiment towards …
4th November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We expect euro-zone equities to continue to recover …
Whether or not the FOMC decides to raise rates for the first time in December or early next year, we think Treasury yields will climb from their current levels for two key reasons. … Treasury yields set to rise (even if first rate hike is in …
3rd November 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM equities for the long run? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Five positives for commodities from China …
2nd November 2015
The relief rally in Turkish markets is likely to fizzle out before long as it becomes clear that the AK Party will deliver more of the same. Our expectation is that equities will lag behind those elsewhere in the emerging world, while we anticipate that a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar to climb further against euro and yen …
30th October 2015
Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to ease policy further. However, we think this is wrong on a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Return of foreign investors to buoy EM markets …
29th October 2015
Notwithstanding the risk of occasional hiccups, portfolio flows should support decent returns in EM financial markets during the next couple of years. … Rising portfolio investment another positive for EM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global easing bias remains, despite prospect of Fed tightening …
28th October 2015
With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP, scheduled for release on Thursday. Whereas …
While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this prospect should not be as alarming as it sounds, both …
