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Despite President Trump’s decision to jump the gun with tariffs on the auto sector this week (ahead of next week’s widely trailed announcement on 2 nd April), the dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net. In part, that may be on account of the damage …
28th March 2025
The dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net, continuing its stabilisation after February’s sell-off. With the latest round of central bank policy announcements in the rear view mirror (having brought no major surprises) and the Trump …
21st March 2025
The dollar has stabilised after its historic tumble last week, with the DXY index set to end broadly flat on the week. At the margin, the greenback was lifted by relatively hot CPI and PPI data this week, which we think point to a 0.35% rise in the core …
14th March 2025
The dollar has suffered one of its largest weekly falls on record in the wake of President Trump’s latest tariff flip-flip , continued jitters around the health of the US economy and, most importantly, Germany’s historic fiscal policy shift . We have …
7th March 2025
The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that the probability of significantly higher tariffs is …
28th February 2025
Despite a continued steady stream of headlines out of the Trump administration, currency markets have remained remarkably calm this week. The dollar has stabilised today but remains around its lowest level in two months. That probably reflects a judgement …
21st February 2025
Despite Wednesday’s hotter than expected US CPI report, the greenback remains on the backfoot as the dollar “Trump trade” has gone into reverse. Between news on President Trump’s tariffs plans, his steps towards an apparent rapprochement with Russia, and …
14th February 2025
The dollar’s boost from tariff announcements last weekend proved short-lived and, despite rallying a bit in response to the latest Employment Report , the greenback is set to end the week lower against most currencies. It’s clearer than ever that …
7th February 2025
The dollar looks set to come out on top against most currencies after a week of central bank meetings, corporate earnings and economic data generally shifted yield gaps in its favour and reinforced US exceptionalism. But it is US trade policy that has …
31st January 2025
The dollar is ending President Trump’s first week back in office on the backfoot. Between the absence of immediate tariffs in this week’s flurry of executive orders, Trump’s renewed attacks on the Fed, and some improved PMI surveys in Europe, the dollar …
24th January 2025
Despite further large swings in bond markets this week, moves in currency markets have for the most part remained relatively muted ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next week. The dollar is broadly flat on the week as a whole, even after a relatively …
17th January 2025
2025 is off to a hot start, with plenty of volatility across financial markets over the first full week of the year and the US dollar rallying on the back of a blockbuster US non-farm payrolls report today , continuing where it left off in 2024. The …
10th January 2025
The FOMC’s hawkish surprise earlier this week has allowed the dollar to break through the top of its post-2022 range, putting it firmly on the front foot going into 2025. (See Chart 1.) With the BoJ and the BoE both striking a more dovish tone, as most …
20th December 2024
Halfway through the December round of central bank policy announcements the US dollar remains on the front foot, with the DXY index again close to its post-2022 high. Arguably, the dollar’s strength this week mainly reflects continued disappointing news …
13th December 2024
Despite a small rebound in the wake of another solid non-farm payrolls release , the US dollar is broadly unchanged on the week as the recent consolidation phase in currency markets continues. Neither another tariff threat from president-elect Trump (this …
6th December 2024
The US dollar has finally hit a speedbump this week, with the DXY index registering its first weekly drop since late September. Given the continued resilience of the US economy – we expect next week’s US ISM surveys and non-farm payrolls to have rebounded …
29th November 2024
The US dollar has rallied further this week as investors have continued to price in the implications of a second Trump term and digest weak economic data in key trading partners. This rally has taken the DXY Index to its highest level since November 2022 …
22nd November 2024
While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since 2016 – some of that rally has since reversed, leaving …
8th November 2024
The US dollar has continued to edge higher this week even in the absence of much economic data, suggesting that the gradual shift in the US election odds in favour of former president Trump continues to provide a tailwind for the greenback. With a week …
25th October 2024
The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other G10 economies. With the US election drawing nearer and …
18th October 2024
Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a potential pause in the Fed’s incipient rate cutting cycle – …
11th October 2024
The US dollar is on course for its best week in two years and looks to have found a near-term floor after its sharp fall in Q2. Today’s strong non-farm payrolls report (and robust ISM surveys earlier in the week), dovish signals from the ECB and the BoE, …
4th October 2024
Today’s release of weaker-than-expected US PCE data for August led investors to revise down slightly their expectations for the fed funds rate, and the DXY index slipped as a result. This, alongside an upside revision to US economic growth, leaves us more …
27th September 2024
The FOMC’s decision to kick off its easing cycle with a bang has boosted risk sentiment – with the S&P 500 surging to a new all-time high – and put the US dollar on the backfoot again. However, the US economy is still in solid shape and Chair Powell …
20th September 2024
The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in the FT and WSJ which suggested it will be a close call …
13th September 2024
A week of decidedly mixed economic data has seen the tone shift towards risk-off across financial markets, with safe haven currencies on the front foot and the US dollar staging a bit of a recovery in the wake of today’s weak, but not disastrous, US …
6th September 2024
The dollar has rebounded a little this week ahead of next week’s crucial US non-farm payrolls report. The incoming data this week has generally supported our view that the US is on track for a soft landing, and if we are right in thinking that payrolls …
30th August 2024
The dovish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and the minutes of the FOMC Meeting in July released on Wednesday have left the greenback lower against all G10 currencies this week. This adds to the batch of weaker-than-expected activity and …
23rd August 2024
The dollar remains on the backfoot as calm has been restored quickly in financial markets, with this week’s key economic data providing renewed support for the “soft landing” scenario. Next week is lighter on the data front but features the minutes from …
16th August 2024
After a turbulent start to the week, financial markets have stabilised over recent days, with asset prices and risky currencies recovering some of their sharp falls in the wake of the run of poor US economic data that prompted a massive sell-off across …
9th August 2024
Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have seen a massive drop as recession fears now appear to have …
2nd August 2024
At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves in both currency and broader asset markets this week. …
26th July 2024
The US dollar has bounced back over the past couple of days as interest rate expectations in the US have rebounded a little and the risk-off shift in equities bled into currency markets. While the Japanese yen has given back some of its …
19th July 2024
The US dollar is again ending the week on the backfoot in the wake of yesterday’s softer-than-expected US CPI report and what looks (potentially) like another round of FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Short-term momentum has now shifted …
12th July 2024
More evidence of softening in the US economy from data releases – notably, the ISM survey data and June’s employment report – weighed on US Treasury yields and left the greenback lower against most major currencies on the week. Otherwise, election-related …
5th July 2024
The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much impact on the dollar despite the sizable change in election …
28th June 2024
Despite more central bank policy announcements this week, most currencies fluctuated within a tight range and the dollar seems set to end the week broadly flat – boosted a bit by the release of PMI data earlier today. Our sense is that this may remain the …
21st June 2024
The US dollar has been taken on a rollercoaster ride this week. The US CPI and PPI reports for May have suggested that price pressures are gradually easing. These somewhat promising data reports have boosted investors’ expectations for rate cuts, despite …
14th June 2024
The strong nonfarm payrolls report released earlier today broke the recent streak of downward data surprises out of the US and has renewed strength in the dollar. Even so, the greenback looks set to end the week only somewhat stronger against most …
7th June 2024
The US dollar has eased back a bit further against other G10 currencies this week as another round of slightly softer US inflation data dampened the recent rebound in US interest rate expectations. By contrast, today’s upside surprise in euro-zone …
31st May 2024
The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed minutes published on Wednesday but have also risen in other …
24th May 2024
The US dollar has eased back in the wake of somewhat better news on US inflation this week, which has seen US interest rate expectations fall back a bit further. Between this week’s inflation news, the recent softening of activity figures (including this …
17th May 2024
The US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, with its renewed strength against the yen being the key exception. Next week’s CPI data release out of the US could break the calm that has prevailed in FX markets over the …
10th May 2024
An eventful week in financial markets is ending with the dollar down, but mounting a comeback in the wake of today’s worryingly weak US non-manufacturing ISM survey . Between the earlier softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls , the cautious message …
3rd May 2024
Financial markets have largely taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the past week in stride. Having spiked from $87pb to $90pb on the news of today’s attack, Brent crude oil has now fallen back to below $88pb. Similarly, the big moves in …
19th April 2024
The US dollar has surged in the wake of another too-hot US CPI print , a dovish ECB and disappointing credit data out of China . The DXY index is now approaching its peak of last autumn (~106 currently, vs ~107 on 1 st November), and our sense is that the …
12th April 2024
Another robust US non-farm payrolls report has seen the dollar rebound a bit, unwinding some of its losses earlier in the week and putting the DXY index on track to end the week near its highest level on the year. With FOMC members continuing to signal …
5th April 2024
The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE data release out of the US tomorrow may add to the …
28th March 2024
The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is surprising: the FOMC’s overall message arguably had a …
22nd March 2024
Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy rate. These expectations will be put to the test next …
15th March 2024
