This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German industrial recovery halts in March The renewed contraction in industrial production in March after two months of expansion, is a reminder that the German economy is still …
8th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for European commercial property. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for Canada. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Asia (ex Japan). If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for Australia and New Zealand. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the Japanese economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key macroeconomic data for India. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for euro-zone, Nordic & Swiss economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
The near-relentless narrowing in US credit spreads over the past year or so has left them at their lowest levels since late 2021. This echoes similarly upbeat pricing in the stock market. But, while we think that equities still have plenty of room to …
7th May 2024
Europe will raise barriers to trade and investment with China in the coming months and years. But policymakers will try to balance conflicting objectives so the result may well be a gradual rather than sudden increase in protectionism with measures …
The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the risk premium in prices has now unwound. Prices continue to be supported by OPEC+ production cuts but we suspect that members will gradually unwind these cuts …
The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to ease lower by end-year. After all, while industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by a combination of interest rate cuts, a recovery in …
The decision by Turkey last week to suspend all goods trade with Israel until there is a permanent ceasefire in the war in Gaza is unlikely to have a major macroeconomic impact in either country, although Israel’s construction sector appears vulnerable …
Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil prices fall back further as we expect, however, a return …
The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years. The return to rental growth on high streets in 2023 after three years of …
The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction toolkit. Although the price of polluting in China is likely …
Commercial activity rebounds, but housing still subdued The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to 53.0 in April, a 14-month high. The rise was driven by improvements to the commercial and civil engineering components, …
South Africa election 2024 …
The RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold at its meeting today suggests that there is a high bar for any further tightening of monetary policy. Indeed, the Board seems keen on minimising the collateral damage to the economy from its war on inflation. On …
RBA content to stay put for a while The RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged at 4.35%, despite the material upside surprise in the CPI data last quarter, suggests that the bar for a resumption of rate hikes is high. However, the other side of that coin …
Banks easing credit conditions amid soft demand The second-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey revealed that, a year after the regional banking crisis, only a modest net share of banks are still tightening lending standards. The Net percentage of …
6th May 2024
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity likely to remain weak and concerns about inflation and the …
This interactive dashboard displays the commodity charts to watch and allows you to explore our price forecasts. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This dashboard gives a holistic overview of how shipping disruptions are affecting trade, freight costs, and markets. It also tracks a range of supply chain indicators to monitor inflation risk. Content was last updated 18th December 2024. Updated at …
This dashboard is our new go-to resource for keeping track of Chinese green technology exports. The dashboard was last updated on 20th December 2024. If you have any questions about the content, please contact david.oxley@capitaleconomics.com or …
An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. This content was last updated on 19th December 2024. Updated every two weeks. If you have subscriber access to the headroom …
This interactive dashboard presents long-run total return forecasts for 22 headline indices covered on our Asset Allocation service. These are expressed in local-currency, USD, EUR, and GBP terms. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks a tumultuous week in markets that ended on a high. April's soft payrolls report may have given investors much-needed evidence that US …
4th May 2024
An eventful week in financial markets is ending with the dollar down, but mounting a comeback in the wake of today’s worryingly weak US non-manufacturing ISM survey . Between the earlier softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls , the cautious message …
3rd May 2024
After 12 long years, the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion finally entered commercial service this week. The pipeline has the potential to raise oil exports significantly, but the full boost is unlikely to be felt for some time. The project increases …
Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Powell leaves all options open Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still …
Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year Treasury yield towards 4.7%. (See Chart 1.) …
SA’s growth pick-up coming too late for the ANC This week, South Africa manufacturing PMI release reinforced our view that an easing drag from electricity outages will support a pick-up in growth over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming …
Rise in prices paid not yet a concern The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but, for now, it is …
Trump’s return could benefit India With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display in an interview with the Time magazine this week, what might the implications of a second Trump presidency be for India? India is not as dependent on US …
The 6% fall in the price of Brent oil this week, to around $84 per barrel at the time of writing, was at least partly driven by receding fears that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could imperil oil supply. That said, geopolitics in the …
Battle of the survey data ... ESIs vs the PMIs The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies at the start of Q2. …
Encouraging start to the year Growth in the region came to a standstill in Q4 of last year, but data released over the past week add to the evidence of a strong rebound in Q1. Admittedly, the flash GDP data from Mexico released on Tuesday showed that, …
Policy hasn’t kickstarted lending to developers Bank lending decelerated to its slowest pace on record in March. The sectoral breakdown released this week provides some insight into what’s been behind the slowdown. The big picture is that the property …
Despite the correction in equity markets over the past month, risk premia generally remain low across financial markets. While we expect this to continue as an AI-driven bubble inflates in equity markets, this Update explores four areas that could …
Labour market easing puts rate cuts back on the table April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth …
Data released this week showed that euro-zone GDP rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% q/q in Q1. And the disinflation process stalled in April, with the headline rate unchanged at 2.4%. (See here.) But GDP was supported by a big rise in construction in …
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 9th May. (Register here .) OECD too downbeat We think the OECD’s new forecast that the UK will grow at a slower rate in 2025 (of 1.0%) than …
Rate cuts still likely despite strong Q1 growth In a speech this week at an Asian Development Bank conference, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee said that strong GDP growth in the first quarter meant the Bank would need to reconsider the timing of possible …
Inflation in Norway has been falling faster than Norges Bank expected for some time, but with the core rate still a long way above target, today’s communications show that policymakers are not counting their chickens. While they now seem to envisage …
Inflation pressures stabilising, rate cuts still some way off The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was …
Government intervenes in FX market yet again As Japanese markets were closed due to Sh ō wa day, the yen surpassed 160 against the dollar in thin trading on Monday, the weakest it has been since the mid-1980s. While the Ministry of Finance refused to …
RBNZ caught between a rock and a hard place We learnt this week that New Zealand’s labour market deteriorated further last quarter. On the back of unexpected job shedding, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3% in Q1, above the RBNZ’s forecast of …
The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry continued to recover at the start of Q2, but that this was entirely due to higher output in emerging markets, while activity remained much weaker in advanced economies. Meanwhile, the increase in …
2nd May 2024
