This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Trimmed mean inflation set to fall in earnest before long With trimmed mean inflation only moderating slowly, the RBA may well decide to hike interest rates further next year, …
29th November 2023
Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and fiscal and monetary policy will need to stay tight. Our GDP growth …
28th November 2023
Given how far below “fair value” the Swedish krona appears to us, we suspect that its decade-long fall may be coming to an end. The Swedish krona has been the best performing G10 currency so far this month, having risen by nearly 6% against the US dollar. …
The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease only slowly explains why we think interest rates won’t be …
After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to reverse recent oil output cuts, while fiscal policy in the Gulf remains supportive. Outside of the Gulf, balance of payments …
House prices continue to defy gravity Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This was a stronger …
We expect 10-year Treasuries to outperform 2-year Treasuries between now and the end of 2024, even though we forecast the 2-year Treasury yield to fall by more than the 10-year Treasury yield in that period. The Treasury yield curve went through a period …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fall in headline inflation keeps another 50bp cut on the cards The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in …
China’s economy is making headway again after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. … China Chart Pack (Nov. …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) …
Black Friday may result in further rise in sales volumes in Q4 While retail sales values fell in October, a renewed boost from Black Friday in November may yet result in a second consecutive rise in sales volumes across Q4. The 0.2% m/m fall in sales …
Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so far this month. We suspect that will generally stay the …
27th November 2023
Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic averages. Our recent Global Economics Focus summarises …
Temporary pause in strength of new home sales New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply of …
Central bank in “wait and see” mode Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an easing cycle could be …
Guyana’s oil production looks set to grow quickly over the next few years even if the total volume can only play a small role in raising global supply. That said, substantial reserves and low break-even costs should mean that it can continue to produce …
Following a temporary reversal in Q3, EM inflation has started to fall again in the last few months. While this is set to continue, we think it marks the start of a second phase in the EM disinflation process – one that will be characterised by a much …
A close look at the data suggests that the boom in investment in Mexico this year is due to a surge in transport infrastructure construction on the Yucatán Peninsula rather than a boom in nearshoring-related investment. With these projects nearing …
Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth is likely to be weaker than the consensus expects …
The recent period of high inflation in Japan has kick-started a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. If inflation expectations remain elevated and structural forces push up the neutral rate of interest over the coming years, monetary policy will …
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles what we think will be the key themes for the global economy in 2024, including why the consensus for growth is too optimistic, how quickly the Fed could cut rates and how to think about the macro and market …
24th November 2023
We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. Although Gilt yields have risen across the curve since the UK budget announcement , the shape of the sovereign bond …
Zambia and Angola hikes, Nigeria resists High inflation is pushing some African economies to return to monetary tightening but Nigeria has resisted so far. We doubt this will last. Inflation rose again in Nigeria, Angola and Zambia last month as currency …
The S&P Global PMIs have provided misleading signals about the strength of activity in the US and Europe this year. But, for what it’s worth, the flash surveys for November suggest that DMs are ending 2023 on a weak note, with activity stagnating or …
Currencies were no exception to the calm across markets, and the US dollar seems set the end the week a bit lower against most currencies. While “more of the same” downbeat data out of the euro-zone weighed on the euro, most other G10 currencies …
Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy meeting, apparently because of disagreements among …
Overview – Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will see much yield …
Markets welcome Milei’s win From a political angle, it’s hard to see Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election last Sunday as anything other than a rejection of the political establishment, in a similar vein to the surge in support seen …
It would be a stretch to say the government showed fiscal restraint in the Fall Economic Statement , but the announcement of only a few billion dollars in extra spending measures means that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland did not pour much more fuel on …
Retail sales perk up after weak Q3 The renewed rise in retail sales volumes in September was not enough to prevent a large contraction in sales volumes over the third quarter. The balance of risks is probably now skewed to the downside surrounding our …
CBRT bringing tightening cycle to a close Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another chunky 500bp rate hike to 40% this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. The local elections in March may be playing a part …
We continue to think the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of this year and roughly flatline in the first half of next year. This is mostly due to the impact of squeezed household incomes and the tightening of monetary policy, …
Growth pick up is likely to be short-lived Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the naira’s …
It’s true that the Chancellor’s pre-election splurge unveiled in this week’s Autumn Statement was the largest discretionary fiscal loosening (outside of the Covid period) since 2010. And at £20.3bn (0.6% of GDP) in 2028/29, it was the biggest tax-cutting …
Revising up our GDP forecasts India’s economy recorded solid growth in the first half of this year and continues to do so in the second half. Household consumption appears to have been robust in recent months. The RBI’s latest consumer confidence survey …
Strong Q3 growth Most countries in Emerging Asia have now published GDP figures for the third quarter. Growth slowed in China, was unchanged in Korea, but rebounded strongly everywhere else. (See Chart 1.) To view our various responses click here . …
More credit support for developers in the works Policymakers have been trying, and largely failing, to stabilise the property sector for some time. There was a major step-up in support in September, when downpayment requirements and purchase controls …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German economy still very weak The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep …
Disapproval rating highest since Suga resignation The Cabinet Office’s disapproval rating has surpassed 50% for the first time since Fumio Kishida became Prime Minister two years ago. Surely one reason is the 5% plunge in real household disposable …
Surveys point to renewed slowdown in inflation Following a rather hawkish speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock, the financial markets now price in a 60% chance of another 25bp rate hike at the Bank’s February’s meeting, up from 40% before …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Decreases all across the board suggests another weak quarter The further slowdown in the composite PMI in November suggests that GDP growth remained sluggish this quarter. The …
23rd November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will only reach 2% by the end of next year The jump in headline inflation in October isn’t as bad as it looks as underlying inflation kept falling. Nonetheless, it …
We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against the US dollar. But we suspect some of the intra-regional …
Tensions within OPEC+ rise as threat of cut looms OPEC+ was meant to be in the spotlight this weekend but, in a surprise move, the meeting has been delayed until Thursday. The slide in oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict suggest that output quotas …
While the Freedom Party’s victory in the Dutch parliamentary election was a big surprise, there is in our view only a very small probability that it will have a substantial impact on financial markets. Instead, we suspect that the economic outlook will …
Our latest monthly Drop-In on the big macro and market stories in Asia focused on new analysis making the case for Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan policy rate both to hit 2% by 2030. We also discussed the outlook for China in 2024 and previewed …
