At a standstill at the end of 2023 Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag on growth over …
14th February 2024
We survey 12 major advanced economy housing markets to understand why house price falls have been small despite high starting points and sharp increases in mortgage rates. We then use this information to ascertain whether the correction in house prices is …
Soft surprise supports our view that inflation will fall below 2.0% in April By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not …
Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is unlikely, and that the US equity market will continue …
13th February 2024
Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster than that, in which case further declines in mortgage …
We will be discussing whether the next government will move the dial on the economy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 13th March. (Register here .) The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the …
With the UK’s two main parties not-so-quietly campaigning for a general election expected to be held before the end of this year, our UK Economics team held this special briefing on what to expect. During this session the team took questions from the …
Above-target inflation to keep NBR in a hawkish mood The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less …
Core CPI boosted by strange-looking acceleration in OER The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very …
Chairman Thomas Jordan’s recent comments about the franc raise questions over whether the SNB might use FX interventions to loosen monetary conditions. But we think policymakers will use the policy rate as the main tool to achieve price stability, and …
Sharp fall in Swiss inflation reinforces our view that rates will be cut in March The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth easing a bit slower While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as …
The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months . We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might be inclined in that event to pencil in an earlier end …
12th February 2024
We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump. The nickel price has been under consistent downward pressure …
Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far worse position than back in 2017, however, it’s notable …
A key point that stands out from the raft of EM central bank decisions over the past couple of weeks is that policymakers are focussed much more on domestically-generated price pressures than the Fed. We expect a pivot towards monetary easing in the …
Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company. Ultimately, we think this will force Pemex to seek a …
Strong January lending growth not a sign of recovery yet There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase …
Developments over the past week or so have put a dent in the until-recently widespread belief that inflation was firmly in retreat and that central banks had a clear path to cutting rates. Bond yields have crept further up from December lows as more …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. …
A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will outperform the rest of the region. However, upgrades to the …
Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming negotiations with the IMF over a new long-term loan …
9th February 2024
The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. Bank’s latest communications give little away Governor Tiff Macklem gave little away in his …
While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its drop over the last two months of 2023. The greenback’s …
Bond vigilante fiddle, as budget burns Budget on an unsustainable path The CBO released new budget projections this week showing the Federal deficit falling only slightly from 6.2% of GDP in fiscal year 2023, to 5.3% in 2024. The deficit is then expected …
The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets , rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Meanwhile, conflict in the …
SONA: Ramaphosa sets out policy plans South Africa’s President Ramaphosa delivered his State of the Nation (SONA) on Thursday. His speech celebrated the 30 th anniversary of the transition to democracy and laid out the ANC’s policy agenda ahead of the …
“High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. Although investors have pared back expectations for rate cuts by major central banks (notably the …
We’re trying a ‘quickfire round’ on this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to get Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing answering the questions that clients have been asking most frequently in recent days: Could inflation rebound? …
Is euro adoption the path forward for Czechia? The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro reignited at the start of this year and took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency …
Brazil: the hawkish case builds This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most expect this year. The …
We think that EM equities will deliver better returns in the next couple of years than they have since the pandemic. Returns are likely to be lower than those we expect from US equities but similar to those from other DM equities. We expect equities in EM …
A lot of data is being released next week and it might not be a good look for the UK economy. The release of January’s CPI inflation figures on Wednesday may reveal a second rise in as many months, from 4.0% in December to 4.1%. Within that, both core and …
Much ado about nothing The annual revision to the seasonal factors used to generate the seasonally adjusted CPI data turned out to be a damp squib, with the new factors almost identical to the old ones. Nevertheless, since some Fed officials were …
Wage pressures still too strong Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline in the unemployment …
This week, ECB policymakers again pushed back against the prospect of an imminent rate cut, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel saying that policymakers “must be patient and cautious”. Ms Schnabel’s main concern was that more clarity is needed on …
Inflation back to target The most recent batch of inflation figures for the region paint an encouraging picture. Headline inflation fell again in most countries last month and is now within target nearly everywhere. ( Korea and Singapore are the main …
The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively optimistic on the medium-term outlook and still think that …
RBI not ready to pivot yet There were no surprises from the RBI’s policy announcement this week, with the repo rate being kept on hold at 6.50% once more. We had even suggested that MPC member Jayanth Varma would dissent, and in the event he was the only …
Weakness underlying headline strength There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader credit growth slower …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in core inflation sets up Q2 rate cut January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price …
RBA’s hawkish bias will be put to the test While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold on Tuesday didn’t surprise anyone, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement did raise a few eyebrows. In contrast to a number of its developed-market counterparts, the …
Households will pinch pennies for a while yet Consumer spending is likely to remain subdued in the near term, helping to ease demand-side pressures on inflation. Experimental data published by the ABS show that household spending rose by 2.4% y/y in …
US corporate credit spreads have continued to shrink even as bankruptcies have soared but, while they are now fairly narrow, we think there is still some scope for them to tighten further over the remainder of this year. It hasn’t been a great start to …
8th February 2024
Rates on hold, Banxico to stay cautious even once easing cycle begins Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next …
The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our view that the homeowner market will remain tight this …
We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. While the big question around monetary policy in developed market (DM) economies is …
Bahrain taps bond market as repayments near This week, Bahrain became the latest emerging market to issue dollar bonds which will help it meet large upcoming debt repayments. But fiscal policy will need to be tightened in the coming years to put the …
