The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that consumers have been drawing down a stock of “excess” savings …
13th July 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing macro and market risks around El Niño’s return in a 20-minute briefing on Wednesday, 19th July. Click here to register. Egypt getting back on the right path for reforms A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week …
The sharp improvement in South Africa’s budget in recent years has started to reverse. And this trend is set to continue as austerity is eased ahead of the 2024 election and revenues fall short of expectations. The debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise, …
Lenders expect narrow spreads to keep upward pressure on mortgage rates The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became …
The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events. How much of a threat does more disruptive weather pose to the global economy? Does this mean …
Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed in 2023, though, with the relationships weakening …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Uptick in May but weakness ahead Euro-zone industrial production edged up in May but it probably still declined over Q2 as a whole and we think further weakness is ahead. The …
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19 th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing. Rising interest rates have led lenders to rein in the supply of credit to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19 th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing. …
The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) and the accompanying statement and press conference were more hawkish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we are pushing back the timing of when we think the central bank will start to …
Demand falls at fastest rate since last October As we expected, the rise in the average quoted mortgage rate from 4.4% in May to 5.1% in June caused agreed sales and new buyer enquiries to slump. The deterioration in market conditions has left surveyors …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Exports to shrink further before bottoming out Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in June by the most since March 2020, with export volumes falling to a 6-month low. And …
Last year’s sharp weakening of the yen hasn’t boosted goods exports, not least because most exports are invoiced in foreign currency and exporters haven’t slashed prices. Instead, it has lifted corporate profits which has encouraged firms to invest more …
BoK on hold again but conditions now in place for a cut The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fourth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. The central bank is due to hold a press conference and …
Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall in all three economies over time. June’s US CPI data …
12th July 2023
Rate hike on the cards, odds (just) in favour of a 25bp move The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. …
The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators implying that inflation expectations are normalising, we …
Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. Equities in the US have fared markedly better than those …
Major DMs Headline Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
Russia Headline Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
India Headline and Core Inflation (% 3m ann.) …
CE Projections for China, India & US GDP ($ bn, at market exchange rates) …
US Real Personal Disposable Income Growth (% y/y, quarterly since 2015) …
CE China & India Population Forecasts (Thousands) …
Japan Domestic Bank Lending to Non-financial Corporations (Yen bn) …
Japan Aggregate Domestic Bank Lending (Yen bn) …
USD/INR (end of year) …
Japan Overall and Regular Earnings Growth (% y/y, monthly) …
Asia (ex. Japan), Asia (ex. Japan & China) & EM Industrial Production (s.a., Dec. 19 = 100) …
Headline Inflation in Selected EM Europe Economies (% y/y, monthly since Jan. 2018) …
EM Europe Headline & Core Inflation (% y/y, monthly since Jan. 2018) …
Asia (ex. Japan & China) Headline & Core Inflation (% y/y, monthly since Jan. 2018) …
US Policy Interest Rate (%, monthly since 2016) …
UK Policy Interest Rate (%, monthly since 2016) …
US Food Services Sales ($bn) …
Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey - availability for next 3 months …
UK Labour Force (thousands, monthly) …
UK Real Household Disposable Income and Consumer Spending (£m 2019 prices, quarterly) …
UK Real Consumer Spending and GDP (£m 2019 prices, quarterly) …
US Dollar Index (daily since 01/01/2017) …
Euro-zone Money Supply Growth (% y/y) …
Switzerland 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%, monthly) …
South Africa 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%, monthly) …
Mexico 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%, monthly) …
Germany 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%, monthly) …
China 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%, daily) …
Euro-zone EC Employment Expectations and Growth …
European Central Bank Asset Purchases Stock (€bn) …
Euro-zone Monthly Activity Data (% 3m/3m) …
Italy Employment Growth (% y/y, long-term forecast) …
