Copom sticks to its promise Brazil’s central bank delivered on its pledge to deliver another 100bp hike to the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and another 100bp increase at March’s Copom meeting is all but certain. For now, we are sticking with our view that that …
29th January 2025
Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% today and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially stagflationary mix of …
Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially stagflationary mix of …
While there has not been much market reaction to the speech that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered today on how to “kickstart economic growth” , we are still quite optimistic about the long-term prospects for UK equities. Some of the key announcements …
How will Donald Trump’s return affect the US commercial real estate landscape? During a recent online client briefing, our economists highlighted the key risks that could test our assumptions for returns in 2025. Here are some of the critical risks to …
Overview – Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent with further falls to come. Tariffs are a fly …
With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a closer call were it not for the looming threat of tariffs. Admittedly, the Bank hinted that it might have to refrain from providing more policy …
March 6 will mark one year since Egypt embarked on a dramatic shift back to orthodox policymaking. So far, the authorities have stuck to most of their pledges. But has enough been done to deliver strong and sustained growth? Which areas still require …
This is a revamped version of our quarterly Financial Risk Monitor to include commentary and analysis of our latest EM risk indicators. Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline …
The latest investment figures suggest an upturn in industrial activity after a long slump. But given both stretched valuations and continued economic uncertainty, it may be too early to rule out a relapse in the next couple of quarters, while any recovery …
We’re barely a month in and it’s already been an eventful 2025 for financial markets. What do the coming months hold in store as Donald Trump builds out his policy agenda, central banks try to calibrate policy after the great post-pandemic inflation …
Bank cuts by 25bp as 25% tariff threat hangs over the economy With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a much closer call were it not for the looming threat of US tariffs. Any tariffs could …
Euro-zone money and lending growth data paint a rosier picture of the economy’s near-term prospects than the latest business surveys and suggest that the impact of ECB rate cuts is feeding through. However, that won’t stop the Bank from cutting interest …
Easing inflation and recent liquidity injections suggest a cut to policy rate next week Rupee weakness is not a major risk to policy outlook We expect 100bps of cuts this easing cycle, a more dovish view than the consensus The announcement of large …
This page has been updated with additional analysis Riksbank makes final rate cut of the cycle We think that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 2.25% for the foreseeable future after delivering a 25bp cut today. While there is a lot of uncertainty, …
Spain’s strong growth showing no signs of abating The 0.8% q/q increase in Spain’s GDP in Q4 2024 was a bit stronger than expected as the economy brushed off the negative effects of the flooding in Valencia. The economy is likely to continue to increase …
Soft CPI data paves the way for RBA to cut in February With underlying inflation on track to enter the RBA’s 2-3% target band this quarter, we now expect the Bank to begin its easing cycle at its next meeting in February. The 0.2% q/q rise in consumer …
The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed to resume …
28th January 2025
US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of the pack. The S&P 500 Banks Index enjoyed a strong …
Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he’d stop the Russia-Ukraine war in a day, and nearly three years after Russian troops crossed Ukraine’s border, an end to fighting looks closer than ever. But what would the conflict’s end mean for the …
Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are starting to drive a wedge between carbon and gas prices. The …
Last year brought an end to one of European commercial property’s steepest ever price corrections. And the end of 2024 saw more signs for hope as prime yields started to edge down in some markets and rent growth closed on record highs. But do recent …
We think it’s too soon to say whether this is the start of a slump for those large US firms which have benefited most from AI hype until now – but if it was, what would it mean for the S&P 500? Our sense is that the index would slip this year, but that …
Housing market continues to cool The modest rise in house prices in November adds to the sense that the housing market is experiencing a bit of a slowdown amid weak buyer demand and gradually rising supply. We think this trend has a bit further to run, …
Fourth-quarter business equipment investment set to decline The fall in durable goods orders in December was due to the volatile transport component, whereas core and underlying capital goods orders both rose. While real underlying capital goods shipments …
MNB waiting patiently to resume the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that the inflation backdrop will result in less easing over the rest of the year than most expect. Today’s …
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity picked up in December, but that was only enough to drive a modest uptick over Q4 as a whole. The CAP indicates that the economy grew by just 4.4% in 2024, well below the official figure of 5.0%. As a result …
The Q4 data suggest that appraisals are lagging the market correction, with transaction-based cap rates still significantly above those reported in the indices. Our expectation that this gap closes in 2025 underpins our below-consensus forecasts for …
27th January 2025
News that Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s AI Assistant has usurped US OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple’s App Store has dealt the US stock market a blow today, just a week after Stargate was launched to much fanfare. Exports from the …
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with Mexico most vulnerable to his tariff threats while Central American economies could be heavily impacted by his migration plans. Elsewhere in the region, the main impact will …
Newbuild demand remains a bright spot in otherwise frozen market The 3.6% increase in new home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market, with sales up nearly 3% over 2024 as a whole. We expect new …
Iron ore prices have been supported by optimism that policy stimulus may prevent a marked downturn in China’s construction sector. But we think that any stimulus-led boost will prove temporary and iron ore demand will weaken. Given that new low-cost …
This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal tariff and hence growing speculation about more aggressive …
Tariffs are coming. That seems to be one of the key takeaways from an extraordinary week which began with relief that the new president’s inaugural address skipped talk of tariffs, but was followed by a stream of threats from Donald Trump to start raising …
Thailand’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has not only been much weaker than that experienced in other parts of Asia, but also compared with past crises. The weakness of the economy is the key reason why inflation in Thailand is so low, and we think …
India’s outbound tourism market is poised to become one of the world’s largest over the coming years. The Maldives and the UAE are arguably the biggest beneficiaries, though Oman and Thailand are well placed to take advantage too. Other EMs – particularly …
Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector , would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver in fast-growing and non-cyclical sectors, as well as …
German economy starts year on weak footing The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained in contractionary territory in January which supports the consensus and our own view that that Germany will eke out only a small expansion in GDP this year. The …
The raft of export restrictions introduced earlier this month are the latest escalation in China’s shift to a more assertive export control regime. The use of such non-tariff measures is likely to intensify over the coming years, if as we anticipate, …
An unexpected loss of momentum The PMIs suggest that China’s economy lost some momentum in January, despite tailwinds from recent policy easing. We think the slowdown at the start of the year will probably prove temporary, as fiscal stimulus should …
The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with the real policy stance set to remain loose, we expect the …
Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of what he's pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss …
24th January 2025
The first week of the new Trump administration hasn’t thrown up any huge surprises in terms of policy announcements. But there remains considerable uncertainty about the impact of those policies and others mooted on commercial real estate. In this note we …
Trump ups the ante against Russia Comments by President Trump that he would tighten US trade and sanctions policy against Russia if Putin does not agree to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine are likely to have been received with anger in Moscow. The …
