Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job growth set to stay strong for the rest of the decade, the net result is that required office space is only 1.5% lower in 2030 than it was in 2019, compared to our original forecast of a 4% decline. But that would still represent a shortfall of more than 9% compared to the pre-pandemic trend. And in the meantime we think broker data will show another 90-100m. sq. ft. of negative absorption over the next year or so.
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