The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a significant downgrade for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher yields hit capital value forecasts. But with those hikes in yields now happening sooner, total returns for 2024 to 2026 have seen a marginal improvement. Those earlier downgrades mean the consensus has now caught up to our more downbeat view. Indeed, at 5.5% p.a. from 2022-26, the consensus total return forecast is now below our forecast of 6.2% p.a.
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