While Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (better known simply as Lula), the front-runner in Brazil’s presidential race, has been vague about his policy stance, one common theme from his campaign is nostalgia for his previous presidency of 2003-10. The experience from that period suggests that, if he wins, he will respect the key tenets of macroeconomic orthodoxy. But it also suggests that the fiscal picture is likely to worsen and that the state is likely to play a bigger role in the economy, harming productivity.
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