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OPEC output cuts point to a large market deficit in Q4

Yesterday, OPEC+ members announced voluntary cuts to production from May until the end of the year. In total, the cuts amount to 1.16m bpd or about 1.1% of global supply, with Saudi Arabia accounting for the lion’s share of 0.5m bpd. At the same time, Russia announced an extension to its March cut of 0.5m bpd until the end of the year. The cuts were justified on the grounds of weaker demand. We think there are a couple of points to make.

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