Australia & New Zealand
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Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021)

The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Omicron could add to inflationary pressure

If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil prices would continue to weaken, but disruptions to transportation networks coupled with continued strength in goods demand would add to the upward pressure on goods prices. However, for now the activity data suggest that the economy is roaring to life after the recent lockdowns and we’re sticking to our above-consensus GDP forecast of 5% for next year.

3 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Oct. 2021)

While it’s early days, the October trade figures suggest that net trade will turn into a drag on GDP growth yet again as imports rebound after the end of lockdowns.

2 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

Housing demand remains very strong, but rising interest rates and lending restrictions should result in a further slowdown in house price growth next year.

1 December 2021

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 21)

Private capital expenditure dropped during the recent lockdowns but firms’ forecasts point to a strong rebound over the coming quarters.

25 November 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2021)

November’s flash PMI points to a rebound in industrial output amidst early signs that supply shortages are diminishing. But while the services sector is now on the mend, the recovery there is lacking vigour.

24 November 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Rate hikes will result in housing downturn

High household debt will magnify the impact of interest rate hikes on the housing market and we now expect prices across the eight capital cities to fall by 5% from H2 2023. The upshot is that the RBA is unlikely to hike rates as sharply as the financial markets anticipate and may end up easing policy in 2024.

24 November 2021
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