UK Economics Weekly Possible contraction in Q2, all roads lead to a fiscal loosening The chances of the economy escaping a quarterly contraction in Q2 seem to be receding in light of the latest surveys and official data. While a contraction in Q2 would generate many headlines, it... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly MPC singing a different tune The MPC struck a markedly more dovish tone in the statement and minutes of June’s meeting compared to May’s. This was partly due to a weakening global and domestic outlook, but the rising chances of a... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy off to a bad start in Q2, Johnson takes the lead Even if some of the weakness in activity in April comes back in May, GDP growth will still struggle to hit the Bank of England’s Q2 forecast of 0.2%. As such, we doubt that they will raise rates at... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Theresa May’s economic legacy Economic growth was virtually the same in Q1 2019 as it was in Q2 2016 when Theresa May came to power. However, the UK has still underperformed the G7 average. And given that it looks increasingly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy struggles to maintain its pace, race for No. 10 The economic news for Q2 so far has been pretty poor. And we wouldn’t be too surprised if Q1’s expansion is the fastest rate of growth that the economy can muster for some time. Meanwhile, the ever... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grey clouds on the horizon for the labour market Preparations for the moving target of Brexit day flattered the Q1 GDP figures and therefore could give way to a hangover in Q2. But this should just be a timing effect. How the labour market performs... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in borrowing, rise in inflation, local elections looming The recent rise in oil prices adds to our view that inflation is likely to be higher over the next couple of years than is widely expected. This only increases the chances that, eventually, the Bank... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beautifully behaved The unemployment rate is close to the natural rate, inflation is close to the target and GDP growth is close to the economy’s potential rate, but interest rates are well below most estimates of the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The oversight on stockbuilding A lot of the chatter about how stockbuilding ahead of Brexit has boosted GDP growth in Q1 ignores the fact that businesses buy many components from overseas. That’s why imports have been rising at a... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another Brexit delay looms A no deal Brexit still can’t be ruled out next Friday 12th April, but the risk has been significantly reduced by the Prime Minister asking the EU for another delay until 30th June 2019. We suspect the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Little Brexit clarity, but at least the economy is coping well The Brexit merry-go-round continued this week, with the voting in Parliament providing little clarity on where the UK is headed and prolonging the political uncertainty weighing on the economy. Indeed... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
