UK Economics Weekly Parliament, over to you Last week, we said that there were two big obstacles in the pathway to a Brexit deal. With the UK and the EU having come to an agreement, one hurdle has been overcome. The second, whether Parliament... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Obstacles in the pathway to a deal, GDP slowdown looming While the mood music between the EU and the UK appears to have become more upbeat, there are still some major obstacles that may prevent a deal. After all, Parliament would have to vote for it. And... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two borders, four years, one interest rate cut? The frosty response from the EU to the Prime Ministers latest proposal for a Brexit deal means that there is a high chance that Brexit is delayed again until 31st January. If there is a delay, then at... 4th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Headwinds to growth blowing harder Despite the headwinds from the global economic slowdown and the political chaos around Brexit, there are still good reasons to think that GDP grew in Q3. However, it is clear that the performance of... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC tanker is turning In recent years the economy has been moving towards full capacity, but at this week’s meeting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) judged that it has changed direction and slack is now opening up... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political chaos, economic calm With the ECB loosening monetary policy this week, the Fed expected to cut interest rates for the second time in two months next week and the growing political chaos at home, you’d be forgiven for... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly “It’s Brexit, stupid” The latest indications are that the general election that may seal the fate of Brexit is unlikely to take place until the EU has agreed to delay Brexit again and the current deadline of 31 st October... 6th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Suspending Parliament increases chances of a no deal Brexit By restricting the window in which Parliament can prevent a no deal, the suspension of Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October has increased the downside risks to... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly US-UK trade deal unlikely to get off the ground We have our doubts that a US-UK trade deal, even a “modular” one, will be easily achievable if there is a no deal Brexit. In any case, the bigger issue will still be the trading relationship between... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK different? Whereas US yield curve inversions are close to a fool-proof predictor of US recessions, a recession in the UK has only followed inversions in the gilt yield curve on 50% of occasions. That’s not... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Recession fears rising The contraction in GDP in Q2 together with the partial inversion of the gilt yield curve has raised concerns that a recession in the UK is on the way if it’s not already here. We suspect that the UK... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forecasting a parallel universe In our latest UK Economic Outlook, “An economic multiverse” (16th July), we set out the different paths politics could send the economy down. The MPC took a different approach this week, forecasting... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Javid to loosen fiscal policy, economy has poor start to Q3 It came as no surprise that Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister this week. And in his first speech in Parliament on Thursday there was no sign of him rowing back on his campaign pledges... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s no deal warning, signs of life on the high street The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) public finance forecasts in a no deal scenario published in its Fiscal Risks Report this week really do look pretty dreadful. We suspect they overdo the... 19th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Prospect of higher interest rates drifting further away Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. Some of that is just payback from activity being... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets pricing in a cut – deal or no deal While the financial markets are right to expect interest rates to be cut if there is a no deal Brexit, we think they have gone too far by pricing in the possibility that rates will be reduced if a no... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
